EV's and Transportation as a Service to kill Alberta economy by 2030?

[Snuffleupagus]

In 2000, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former oil minister of Saudi Arabia, gave an interview in which he said:

“Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil – and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.”

http://energypost.eu/historic-moment...carbon-bubble/

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.

There is no way that Tesla will ever achieve a market cap greater than any of the Big Three, not by 2030, not by 2060 if they're lucky.



Alberta needs to get smart and start finding new technologies, or improve existing technologies, that rely on the petro products the province is sitting. O&G is not going away, it will just be used differently, which will reduce demand. To maintain demand, the province needs to create demand.

The solution here, IMO, is residential fuel cells. Residential fuel cells use natural gas to create electricity and heat to power a home. Electricity and heat is pretty much on demand. This helps the power grid by putting more generation on site. Combined with solar cells, a residential fuel cell allows for self-sustainability of any home, regardless of location. Fuel cells can run off the natural gas line in a home, or can run off a refillable storage bottle/tank. Alberta should be leading the world in development and manufacture of these products, creating a demand for more natural gas. But that is too forward thinking. Better to wait until 2030 (or 2060) and see an economic crash like not seen since the 1930s.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

It's interesting that many objections revolve around when this could happen...not if it will happen. Whether the changes happen in 14 years 20 years or 30 years the Alberta economy still needs to figure out how to leverage this.

At the timeframe of 30 years, automation is going to make the economy everywhere look a lot different.

Originally Posted by taco.vidal

-Fewer young people are driving. Im on mobile and not looking up stats now. I think the numbers are something like 50% of 16 years old had their license in the 1980s and today that it down to 30%. The same stats for people in their mid 20s are down as well. From what Ive read, millenials dont show much interest in driving.
-Trends show that people are leaving the suburbs to live closer in the city...

Times are changing. Just because you today at 40 cant imagine life without your cars and minivan, and cant imagine not living in the burbs, and cant imagine raising a child in a condo, doesnt mean that up and coming generations arent welcoming a lifestyle different than yours.

Lifestyles are changing for younger generations where they dont need vehicles and cant afford vehicles.

When I was in my 20s, I lived in the beltline, and neither I nor most of my friends owned cars. And yet here I am in my 40s living in the burbs with a mini-van.

The differences between generations can be overstated. Most people's lifestyles and values are different at 47 than at 27. So maybe we do see dramatic increase in the number of adults who want to live in condos in the inner city to raise children - from 5 per cent to 20 per cent. That still leaves a lot of people in the suburbs.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by New Era

There is no way that Tesla will ever achieve a market cap greater than any of the Big Three, not by 2030, not by 2060 if they're lucky.



.

Oh boy do i have some bad news for you. Tesla already has a higher market cap then Ford, GM or Chrysler.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Oh boy do i have some bad news for you. Tesla already has a higher market cap then Ford, GM or Chrysler.

He was being sarcastic, obviously.

That said, I'm not sure what he thinks his point is. Market cap is not market share, and the latter would be a far more useful rebuttal to calgaryblood's argument than pointing out how hyped investors are.

[Northendzone]

I could see in 30 yrs or so EV being more the norm, but by 2030 seems very optimistic to me.

as an aside, I wonder if alberta has enough electric capacity to charge all of these EV's.

[Erick Estrada]

I can't believe we are up to nine pages. If there was any merit to this automakers would be scrambling to spit out EV's as the walls would be crumbling around them. Instead it's business as usual as it is will oil companies.

[combustiblefuel]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

Yeah, good one.

Is half the population going to work for Uber? Don't see how everyone gets around without owning a car if they don't want to use public transit.

Electric bikes. Our sales in our shop of various electric bikes are absolutely booming right now.

Families are getting rid of their cars and getting electric cargo bikes. You can take up to 3 kids and still have room to gather goods . with the legal speed limit of 32km/hr motor limits they aren't exactly slow.

Individuals could also get Electric folders for small space living,

Electric Velomobiles could easily individual cars.

Even lanscapers/plumbers/painters are comming in to get cargo bikes then adding trailers to carry their equipment now.

Pennies to charge a week.

Just a few examples I have done .

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

He was being sarcastic, obviously.

That said, I'm not sure what he thinks his point is. Market cap is not market share, and the latter would be a far more useful rebuttal to calgaryblood's argument than pointing out how hyped investors are.

I'm not that surprised you don't get the point. Market cap is a very good indicator of investor confidence, and how well they think the company is going to perform in the foreseeable future. The fact the Tesla does have such a high market cap is a good indicator of where people see not just the fortunes of Tesla going, but the fortunes of the whole auto industry. The days of the combustion engine being under the hood of most cars is coming to an end. Alberta needs to find a new market for its fossil fuels.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I can't believe we are up to nine pages. If there was any merit to this automakers would be scrambling to spit out EV's as the walls would be crumbling around them. Instead it's business as usual as it is will oil companies.

I find your lack of faith disturbing...check the article out from Audi's North America president and his message to Audi dealers.

All this fright about where am I going to get a charge is going to go away extremely fast. The technology on this front is moving at a staggering pace. You’re going to be looking at a marketplace in the next seven, eight, nine, 10 years where for 30 or 40 some brands their entire business is going to be battery-electric vehicles.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

First commercial cell phone was released in 1973. In 1995 you would be hard pressed to think of someone who had a cell phone. 20 years later, its hard to think of anyone that doesn't have a cellphone.

The Scandanavian countries are early adopters of a lot of technology. Norway is over 20% market share of electric vehicles already. It's a similar spike to the cell phone market.



I think many people in the developing world will skip right over internal combustion engines and go straight to electric. Like how now you have almost 100% saturation of cell phones despite most of these people never having access to a landline.

China already has the biggest market for electric cars. I suspect it will grow rapidly as people there are getting tired of living in a smog cloud.

And the electric transport story in China is much more than cars.

There's an estimated 350 million e-bikes in China and huge growth in electric buses.

Further, inductive charging (charging without a cord) is developing very quickly. You can easily imagine parking lots, multi residential underground parking, red lights and intersections fitted with charging pads.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by GGG

An interesting question would be do you continue to subsidize mass transit in a world of automated cars?

If a commuter car becomes a 3 wheeled pod that drives itself within inches of the nearest vehicles you get the density of transit plus the flexibility of cars.

I agree, mass transit would be very hard pressed in such a world and things like full size buses would probably disappear. I can still see rail but only in routes and places that make sense, such as the very large cities.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by curves2000

1) The first hybrid to be launched globally was the Toyota Prius in Japan in 1997, 20 years ago. The first hybrid to be launched in North America was the Honda Insight in 1999. When these cars launched there was a massive push for people adopt these technologies because the earth and humanity was facing a peak oil crisis, we were rumored to be quickly depleting the earth's oil reserves and needed to get off quickly. Looking at this situation in 2017, where is the peak oil? Do anyone of you own an electric or hybrid car? Does anyone in your significant group of friends or family own any? These technologies exist but the adaption is super low considering the time frame looking back.

I don't remember it this way at all. I don't remember the massive push. They were gimmicky cars that got play in the media for their gimmickiness. There wasn't a "change the world or else" thing behind that Toyota econobox.

Peak oil wasn't a mainstream topic of conversation and I really doubt it was used in advertising by Honda and Toyota.

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by GGG

An interesting question would be do you continue to subsidize mass transit in a world of automated cars?

If a commuter car becomes a 3 wheeled pod that drives itself within inches of the nearest vehicles you get the density of transit plus the flexibility of cars.

Originally Posted by accord1999

I agree, mass transit would be very hard pressed in such a world and things like full size buses would probably disappear. I can still see rail but only in routes and places that make sense, such as the very large cities.

While autonomous vehicles will certainly change the face of mass transit (and electric buses already have in many places), outright elimination in large cities is unlikely for a very long time.

In dense urban areas, mobility is largely a geometrical problem, not a technological one. A significant portion of the commuter base still needs to be traveling on large high-capacity vehicles that allow for many of the passengers to be standing. Mass use of smaller autonomous vehicles will bring with them some operational and geometrical efficiency, but not enough to entirely replace the need for large mass transit capacity.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by combustiblefuel

Electric bikes. Our sales in our shop of various electric bikes are absolutely booming right now.

Hey, can you explain how the bylaws work in Calgary for EV Bikes?

From what I read before, powered vehicles are technically not allowed on pathways in the city? And at a certain power/speed, full face helmets are required? The laws might be a bit draconian but I can see where this makes sense as some of these bikes can get very fast.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

In 2000, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former oil minister of Saudi Arabia, gave an interview in which he said:

“Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil – and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.”

http://energypost.eu/historic-moment...carbon-bubble/

It's a catchy quote but it is wrong when you do any analysis of it, because more importantly, the Stone Age did not end because humans stopped using stone.

Nor for the Iron Age, which also ended up thousands of years ago but today the world produces 3+ billion tons of iron ore a year.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

While autonomous vehicles will certainly change the face of mass transit (and electric buses already have in many places), outright elimination in large cities is unlikely for a very long time.

In dense urban areas, mobility is largely a geometrical problem, not a technological one. A significant portion of the commuter base still needs to be traveling on large high-capacity vehicles that allow for many of the passengers to be standing. Mass use of smaller autonomous vehicles will bring with them some operational and geometrical efficiency, but not enough to entirely replace the need for large mass transit capacity.

It is harder to envision for a city like Calgary with such low population density, but for a city like Vancouver for example, the need for large scale mass transit is going to get larger and larger, even with a fleet of autonomous vehicles on the highway.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The Scandanavian countries are early adopters of a lot of technology. Norway is over 20% market share of electric vehicles already. It's a similar spike to the cell phone market.

And that's only possible because EVs avoid the 100+% taxes and registration costs on regular vehicles, get free parking in city streets, free toll roads and HOV lanes. When Denmark began to tax EVs again, their sales collapsed:

http://insideevs.com/ev-sales-down-8...policy-change/

I think many people in the developing world will skip right over internal combustion engines and go straight to electric.

They would need a modern electric grid to start from. The developing world are jumping into used vehicles from the first world or new cars built on out-dated or cheap platforms, not EVs that they have no place to charge.

China already has the biggest market for electric cars. I suspect it will grow rapidly as people there are getting tired of living in a smog cloud.

China's also the biggest market for regular vehicles.

[Clarkey]

This sounds like the 'Peak Oil' prognosticators of the 70's. They were too absolute and oversimplified matters.

The reality is that electric and possibly natural gas powered vehicles will displace some of the current mix in the mid-term but the base will still be fossil fuel powered for many decades (including natural gas fired electricity). I take a less pessimistic view and think BC/Alberta is in an enviable position and will be thriving off of gas for a long time, even if the global demand and price drops.

[Flash Walken]

Is there a bigger indicator for the preponderance of electric vehicles than massive government subsidy and investment combined with manufacturers forging ahead in spite of relatively low sales returns?

If I'm an investor or analyst, I look keenly at government outlays for future trends and growth, and US Government has seemingly convinced automakers to walk lock-step into the world of electronic and autonomous vehicles. Even if Trump backtracks on that, the rest of the world won't be.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govern...ctric_vehicles