Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well there's always the hope Trump is gone before NAFTA is. Pence would probably do nothing with NAFTA, and would probably sign TPP too.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

It's effectively a 25% tax on all imported goods from anywhere. That's a job killing tax if there ever was one. No way it goes through as it starts a trade war with the entire world immediately.

At the same time it crushes US manufacturing as it appears that complete imported wouldn't be taxed the same as goods manufactured in the US with the raw products shipped in. It's a worst of both worlds policy.

Well done republicans.

This is pretty much exactly how the great depresin started. High stock market valuations and US led trade war for no good reason.

[Violator]

Should have gotten oil and LNG pipelines to the coast years ago instead of selling to the Americans.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Violator

Should have gotten oil and LNG pipelines to the coast years ago instead of selling to the Americans.

If only we could have predicted a sweeping Republican victory backed by President Donald J Trump 10 years ago.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

If only we could have predicted a sweeping Republican victory backed by President Donald J Trump 10 years ago.

Well it doesn't take a genius to think it is a bright idea to diversify your customer base.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Well it doesn't take a genius to think it is a bright idea to diversify your customer base.

Yeah but it's obviously much more complicated than saying "we're going to build a pipeline/refinery". If the top dollar bottom line for 20+ years was truck/pipeline shipping to US refineries instead, you know O&G always follows the path of least resistance.

[opendoor]

Surprisingly, Trump has actually come out against the border adjustment proposal.

But yeah, they want to give massive tax cuts to the wealthy, and they have to at least make it look like they're trying to replace some of the revenue, so I guess this is their plan. The rich will see huge savings while the rest of the population funds this through a big increase in the price of goods. Trickle up economics at work.

[Faust]

I found both of these articles interesting.

Peter Tertzakian: 4 reasons why a leaner and meaner Canadian oilpatch is back in the game

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...ck-in-the-game


Global energy is on the brink of ‘one of the most exciting business duels in history’: Peter Tertzakian

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...ter-tertzakian

[Faust]

Duplicate post

[IliketoPuck]

Anyone else at the CFA forecast dinner tonight?

I found the keynote speaker fascinating. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan

Will expand on his points tomorrow morning.

But coles notes:

1. Americans will step back from protecting world trade routes (i.e. high seas).
2. Will lead to significant instability in Europe and Asia.
3. Population demographics are about to wreak havoc on the developed world.
4. Alberta should join the US.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

If only we could have predicted a sweeping Republican victory backed by President Donald J Trump 10 years ago.

Wrong. I distinctly recall years ago this being a concern for many, many people in industry. Like, this exact problem. And yes it was made pretty public and ignored.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Wrong. I distinctly recall years ago this being a concern for many, many people in industry. Like, this exact problem. And yes it was made pretty public and ignored.

Yeah people have floated the ol' Alberta refinery and coastal pipe ideas forever. Those with the money chose not to make refinery investments. Coastal pipe is slated to be built (eventually).

It's not like any of us had a say in who we sold crude to.

[red sky]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Anyone else at the CFA forecast dinner tonight?

I found the keynote speaker fascinating. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan

Will expand on his points tomorrow morning.

But coles notes:

1. Americans will step back from protecting world trade routes (i.e. high seas).
2. Will lead to significant instability in Europe and Asia.
3. Population demographics are about to wreak havoc on the developed world.
4. Alberta should join the US.

I attended. He was very engaging for sure and raised some interesting points. The demographic aspect for Russia was certainly a different perspective. Kind of now or never for their army and to secure their boarders.

Edit: was fascinated by Amanda Lang's face barely moving when she spoke. I am not sure she could frown or smile if she was asked too.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Yeah people have floated the ol' Alberta refinery and coastal pipe ideas forever. Those with the money chose not to make refinery investments. Coastal pipe is slated to be built (eventually).

It's not like any of us had a say in who we sold crude to.

Well hang on here because there is a big difference between refining and egress to other markets. Let's not combine the two because they are two massively different investments from the business community.

One is horrifically underwater and makes zero sense from a business perspective while the other could have, but didn't have the support of provincial, federal governments and as well local communities specifically aboriginals. Regardless of what people say, years down the road (or possibly sooner), people are going to wish these investments happened and will regret what Canada has done to prevent them or- if not actively prevented them- resented and not helped them come to fruition.

[cam_wmh]

Did anyone go to King's market update at the Petro Club on Tuesday?
I heard it was a packed house -- optimism

The deck;
http://gmpsecurities.com/Portals/0/C...2017-01-17.pdf

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by red sky

I attended. He was very engaging for sure and raised some interesting points. The demographic aspect for Russia was certainly a different perspective. Kind of now or never for their army and to secure their boarders.

Edit: was fascinated by Amanda Lang's face barely moving when she spoke. I am not sure she could frown or smile if she was asked too.

I thought she did a really good job as a moderator. Kept the discussion moving along quite well. I was hoping for a bit more diversity of opinion from the panelists, though. Not that I want conflict, per se, but it seemed like both ladies were content to stay within their zones of expertise and not challenge any statements made by the other.

Zeihan's talk was fascinating.

Expanded notes:

1. North America (and specifically the U.S.) is doomed to be a world economic super power if for no other reason than having the largest basin of arable land in the world, combined with substantial natural transportation routes (rivers, etc.).

2. The U.S. is getting sick of taking care of the rest of the world as they have since the Bretonwoods accord.

3. Americans are largely responsible for globalization as a result of the outcome of Bretonwoods (agreed that Americans would effectively police the high seas and secure global trade routes).

4. The advent of shale in the U.S. is leading the Americans towards energy independence, therefore their interest in oil producing areas around the world is waning.

5. Americans will step back and start to let the rest of the world figure out how to maneuver for scarce energy resources.

6. Population demographics in developed nations suck, and everyone (Canada included) is about to see their primary tax contributors (baby boomers) move into retirement and become drains on the system.

7. Alberta is going to get taxed through the nose by the federal government, because we are literally the only province with a substantial economy in Canada with a somewhat normal demography.

8. Alberta should join the U.S.

Far too short of a summary, and I'm vastly simplifying his talk, but I found it a fascinating subject. He combined a critical analysis of global demographies and resource scarcity to evaluate the motivation of nations to take the actions they have. I.E. Russia has such an aging demography that their recent imperialistic action makes sense when looking at how their population base (read through to military) will look in the next 20 years.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

I thought she did a really good job as a moderator. Kept the discussion moving along quite well. I was hoping for a bit more diversity of opinion from the panelists, though. Not that I want conflict, per se, but it seemed like both ladies were content to stay within their zones of expertise and not challenge any statements made by the other.

Zeihan's talk was fascinating.

Expanded notes:

1. North America (and specifically the U.S.) is doomed to be a world economic super power if for no other reason than having the largest basin of arable land in the world, combined with substantial natural transportation routes (rivers, etc.).

2. The U.S. is getting sick of taking care of the rest of the world as they have since the Bretonwoods accord.

3. Americans are largely responsible for globalization as a result of the outcome of Bretonwoods (agreed that Americans would effectively police the high seas and secure global trade routes).

4. The advent of shale in the U.S. is leading the Americans towards energy independence, therefore their interest in oil producing areas around the world is waning.

5. Americans will step back and start to let the rest of the world figure out how to maneuver for scarce energy resources.

6. Population demographics in developed nations suck, and everyone (Canada included) is about to see their primary tax contributors (baby boomers) move into retirement and become drains on the system.

7. Alberta is going to get taxed through the nose by the federal government, because we are literally the only province with a substantial economy in Canada with a somewhat normal demography.

8. Alberta should join the U.S.

Far too short of a summary, and I'm vastly simplifying his talk, but I found it a fascinating subject. He combined a critical analysis of global demographies and resource scarcity to evaluate the motivation of nations to take the actions they have. I.E. Russia has such an aging demography that their recent imperialistic action makes sense when looking at how their population base (read through to military) will look in the next 20 years.

Some of those points are really interesting and I've seen them made before (specifically on the natural transportation and arable land). I don't doubt the will of the US to pursue energy independence and they could hit it for the shorter term, but as we are all aware the depletion rate of the shale oil is quite pronounced. So I (as an outsider) wonder whether that independence is a little bit short-lived?

[IliketoPuck]

That's an interesting point Slava, and a very valid one as well.

I spent a large portion of his talk last night trying to think of areas where his arguments fell down. One of them was definitely the long term sustainability of shale given its high decline rate.

Many of his other points were tough to refute though. I don't usually come away from talks like that wanting to buy a book, but I will most certainly be buying his books.

[Enoch Root]

I think the issue of an aging demographic is also being looked at too much from one side only.

Yes, the population of every first world nation is getting much older. And yes, that means many people will stop being taxpayers.

However, they are also the wealthiest generation in history, and they are going to switch from being savers to being spenders of that money. They are also going to ensure that healthcare remains to be a growing industry.

Also, their exodus from the workforce should provide opportunity for jobs for others. In Canada, the aging demographic can be largely offset with immigration.

The taxpayer issue can be addressed by reshaping the tax landscape, with more emphasis on sales tax.

Finally, that wealth will eventually be transferred to others - younger others - effectively releasing it from savings.

I continue to believe that the big concern about the aging baby boomers will be a giant non-event. (by non-event, I mean a non-catastrophe... it will undoubtedly cause a great deal of change)

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think the issue of an aging demographic is also being looked at too much from one side only.

Yes, the population of every first world nation is getting much older. And yes, that means many people will stop being taxpayers.

However, they are also the wealthiest generation in history, and they are going to switch from being savers to being spenders of that money. They are also going to ensure that healthcare remains to be a growing industry.

Also, their exodus from the workforce should provide opportunity for jobs for others. In Canada, the aging demographic can be largely offset with immigration.

The taxpayer issue can be addressed by reshaping the tax landscape, with more emphasis on sales tax.

Finally, that wealth will eventually be transferred to others - younger others - effectively releasing it from savings.

I continue to believe that the big concern about the aging baby boomers will be a giant non-event. (by non-event, I mean a non-catastrophe... it will undoubtedly cause a great deal of change)

It may be wise, although highly unpopular, for the government to consider some sort of estate tax as the boomers start to die off.