Patience. Or: the Importance of the Entry Draft in today's NHL

[devo22]

When the Flames offer-sheeted ROR, quite a number of guys on here said something along the lines of "draft picks are always an unknown commodity" and they'd take an established player any day over a draft pick. Some made comments that draft classes were always hyped and the draft itself is overrated. I have a different point of view. Maybe I'm completely out of the ball park, maybe not. I started writing this before the waiver fiasco and had to alter it a bit, but my point stands.

The Flames are always desperate to make the playoffs - it seems that matters most to the organization, even if they only manage to crawl in on the final day of the regular season. They tend to think that shuffling the cards will do the trick and often look at trades and free agents to make it happen. The draft has obviously never looked that important to the Flames when it comes to building their hockey club. One look at the sixteen organizations that made the playoffs last year shows that this is a huge mistake: most of those teams have been built through the draft.

When it comes to the sixteen playoff teams in 2011-12, the average number of players who were drafted by their respective team and played at least 30 games in the 2011-12 regular season for them is nine. When the Los Angeles Kings hoisted the Stanley Cup in June 2012, ten of their draft picks were dressed for game six, with two more scratched after playing more than 30 regular season games for the Kings. On the other side of the ice, the Devils had seven of their draft picks in the lineup, with four more scratched after playing more than 30 regular season games for the Devils. Some other playoff teams were almost completely built through their draft: the Nashville Predators got 30 or more regular season games from 15 of their draft picks, the Detroit Red Wings had 14, the Washington Capitals and the Ottawa Senators had 12 each.

You do not have to be Einstein to understand the point I want to make. The number of players that were drafted by the Calgary Flames and donned the Flaming C in more than 30 regular season games last year is a sad and underwhelming three. Blueliner T.J. Brodie leads this "pack" with 54 games after being recalled from the AHL early in the season and deservedly sticking with the team for the remainder of the season. Due to injuries, Mikael Backlund only had 41 games to his name, and the third player in this group is forward David Moss - a seventh round pick from 2001 who left the club through free agency in July. In the lockout-shortened 2013 season, this number could be slightly higher for the Flames, thanks to the addition of Steve Begin, a Flames draft pick from 1996. Brodie, Backlund and Sven Baertschi are also on pace for more 30 games on a 82 game basis.

you can read the whole thing HERE. As you know, English is not my native language, so any feedback on that is appreciated.

[clancy]

Let me be the first to thank you! Today's players are better than 10 years ago. Enhanced training, coaching, nutrition, focus on skill development etc means that having solid drafts will pay dividends. Flames need to realize this and dump vets for picks now!!!!

[Northendzone]

So the kings had 10 draft picks dressed, that number surprises me. How many picks did they have from the time thier oldest drafted player was selected?

While I agree that it is generally not a good idea to trade picks, in the case of ROR it may have been worth it......but what do I know

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

So the kings had 10 draft picks dressed, that number surprises me. How many picks did they have from the time thier oldest drafted player was selected?

The ten guys are:

- Dustin Brown: 13th overall in 2003
- Anze Kopitar: 11th overall in 2005
- Jonathan Quick: 72nd overall in 2005
- Jonathan Bernier: 11th overall in 2006
- Trevor Lewis: 17th overall in 2006
- Alec Martinez: 95th overall in 2007
- Dwight King: 109th overall in 2007
- Drew Doughty: 2nd overall in 2008
- Slava Voynov: 32nd overall in 2008
- Jordan Nolan: 186th overall in 2009

Scratched were Andrei Loktionov (123rd in 2008) and Kyle Clifford (35th in 2009), so all of their drafted guys that contributed last season were drafted between 2003 and 2009. They messed up 2004 completely though. Over those 7 years, they had 65 picks. The Flames had 53 picks over that span. Keep in mind that 2003 and 2004 still had 9 rounds.

[Enoch Root]

Very important word in your title: patience. Patience and discipline are the keys to executing a plan effectively and consistently.

[kirant]

There's certainly a large value in being patient at the draft.

Another example I'd point to is the Rangers. Despite the fact that their GM can and will spend money like a drunken sailor on free agents (cap inefficiency), they still put together a decent team. Last year's playoff team included (if memory serves)

Carl Hagelin - 6th (2007)
Marc Staal - 1st (2005)
Derek Stepan - 2nd (2008)
Ryan Callahan - 4th (2004)
Michael Del Zotto - 1st (2008)
Chris Kreider - 1st (2009)
Henrik Lundqvist - 7th (2000)
Brandon Dubinsky - 2nd (2004)

And Dan Girardi was brought in as a UFA ala Giordano. Life long Rangers product.

[Matty81]

Calgary has a great opportunity to hoard picks in a good draft this year. Not only is the team listless but they are scoring alot so the non-goalies all have good numbers.

Hoping ownership will green light it finally because if the same team with a few tinkers is in place next year I will need to take as much of a break as I can from the flames.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by kirant

There's certainly a large value in being patient at the draft.

Another example I'd point to is the Rangers. Despite the fact that their GM can and will spend money like a drunken sailor on free agents (cap inefficiency), they still put together a decent team. Last year's playoff team included (if memory serves)

Carl Hagelin - 6th (2007)
Marc Staal - 1st (2005)
Derek Stepan - 2nd (2008)
Ryan Callahan - 4th (2004)
Michael Del Zotto - 1st (2008)
Chris Kreider - 1st (2009)
Henrik Lundqvist - 7th (2000)
Brandon Dubinsky - 2nd (2004)

And Dan Girardi was brought in as a UFA ala Giordano. Life long Rangers product.

Recently left parts of their roster include:

Lately I'd say the Flames buy their team via UFA compared to NyR who build through the draft

[Weiser Wonder]

Of course drafting is important, because that's where teams gain assets. However, that does not mean teams should not trade picks for assets. Nor does it mean that you should try to make sure your team is made up of players you drafted.

Successful teams often have a lot of their own draftees because they are good at asset management and the draft is the easiest place to gain assets. They are not successful because they have a lot of their own draftees in their line up.

So, your argument that ROR should not have been signed because he's not the Flames draft pick isn't sound. As he's a much better long term asset than the Flames would expect to get, outside of picking top five.

That's, of course, in the hypothetical situation that ROR would not have had to go through waivers.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by devo22

When the Flames offer-sheeted ROR, quite a number of guys on here said something along the lines of "draft picks are always an unknown commodity" and they'd take an established player any day over a draft pick.

If that established player is a center who just turned 22 and has shown what O'Reilly has, sure.

There's a huge difference between giving up a player like Gormley or Tarasenko for a couple years of a 30+ year old Jokinen than there is giving up a first round pick for a 22 year old O'Reilly.

Losing a 1st in the Jokinen trade, a 2nd in the Regehr trade, another 2nd in the Cammalleri trade, and just givng anything for Modin probably ends up negatively impacting the future of the Flames as the trades were made with the present in mind. Of course there's a chance all of the draft picks in the what-if world would have been busts and there's other players like Ramo and Byron at play but likely those trades didn't help the future of the Flames 5 years down the road.

O'Reilly is different, that's a player that could be a building block of a franchise for the next decade (although I disagree with Feaster calling him a franchise player).

[Street Pharmacist]

Dean Lombardi made a good point about players who "grow up" in a team vs free agents. Players who have only been with one team are more prone to give it all than mercenaries. That was his point anyways. How many top 30 scorers are on the team that drafted them? Same goes for heart and soul players. Would Dustin Brown be the same player in Florida?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If that established player is a center who just turned 22 and has shown what O'Reilly has, sure.

There's a huge difference between giving up a player like Gormley or Tarasenko for a couple years of a 30+ year old Jokinen than there is giving up a first round pick for a 22 year old O'Reilly.

Losing a 1st in the Jokinen trade, a 2nd in the Regehr trade, another 2nd in the Cammalleri trade, and just givng anything for Modin probably ends up negatively impacting the future of the Flames as the trades were made with the present in mind. Of course there's a chance all of the draft picks in the what-if world would have been busts and there's other players like Ramo and Byron at play but likely those trades didn't help the future of the Flames 5 years down the road.

O'Reilly is different, that's a player that could be a building block of a franchise for the next decade (although I disagree with Feaster calling him a franchise player).

We're talking about a potential top 3 or first overall pick here.

The difference in 5 years could be o'reilly vs. seguin/toews/landeskog/duchene/pat Kane...... Real franchise players.

That is what is one of the most damning things to me. It's a top 5 with potential to be even higher. In another year if you are picking 20-30, maybe it's a bit better gamble.

[Tinordi]

Yeah ROR is a nice player but if we're in to five pick category inn what is looking to be as good a top five as the Toews draft then once again I have to question the strategy for lack of a better term. More stupidity from the clowns running this franchise and this ridiculous win now mandate.

[Badgers Nose]

What amazes me is the fact that flames ownership thinks attendance will drop off if the flames were to do a serious rebuild. If they were to get a bunch of exciting young players I think that would actually create a frenzy around this team.

Right now the seats are all corporate seats and the games are usually pretty boring up until the midway point of the season. Last season got really exciting Sven came up and even aliu at the end of the season.

There is a general sense of apathy about the Calgary Flames. When I try and take clients to games more often than not they say that the product on the ice is boring and they're not very interesting.

Hockey fans in Calgary are very smart. They know exactly what they're seeing and don't need it explained to them. The problem with today's flames is what fans see on the ice is divergent from what management describes as the product. This is not a team that's close nor is it a team that is a contender.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is that flames fans are in fact very patient. Where the impatience comes from is seeing the flames do the same thing for almost a decade now while expecting different results.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Under the salary cap, I really don't believe you can win a Stanley Cup unless you are good at drafting.

Discounting the 'burn it to the ground' teams (Chicago, Pittsburgh), only one winner since the lockout hasn't had a top 5 pick (Detroit - I believe every other team thus far has had a top 5 pick). Home-grown talent were all part of a 'core' on every team - supplemented with GOOD acquisitions (either UFA signings or from trades).

You can't just look at the draft, just like you can't just look at Free Agency or being a good trading team. It is a 3-headed monster that a team must excel at. Give up on one of the heads, and it will quickly bite its' own legs off and you no longer have a winner.

I think the Flames are preaching more of a patience game - picking Jankowski is a VERY good example of this. It would have been 'easier' to pick Teravainen - more people feel he was 'closer' to making the NHL than Jankowski, but the Flames stuck to their guns and picked the guy who they thought was going to be the best down the line, regardless of how much longer he may take.

I really do think that the Flames are lacking substantially in home-grown talent. I would like to see them accumulate picks this year. I wasn't too happy about the offer-sheet to O'Reilly, but he was young and definitely the type of player that helps an organization move forward.

With that being said (and without pigeonholing O'Reilly TOO badly), O'Reilly doesn't seem like he is that elusive 1st line center to me. He, in my opinion, is more like a Langkow. Definitely someone that GREATLY enhances your team's ability to win a game, but not that game-breaker or 1st line center that a championship team needs.

I hope the Flames keep their 1st this year, and use it to try and draft elite players - even if they do require more development time. They may never pan out, but being able to trade for one is impossible anyways. You can pick up "Langkow-type" players (though without looking, very rarely as well), but VERY rarely do true franchise centermen ever get traded. Few franchise D get traded, but it does happen.

Flames just need to focus on making every single one of their draft picks count (which they seem to be trying to do, according to Weisbrod's interview at last year's draft when talking about DeBlouw). They also need to try and be just as 'risky' with their picks as they have been - possible 'elite' talents in Gaudreau and Jankowski.

I can't think of any team in the NHL right now that hasn't got a top 5 pick and won the cup since the lockout other than Detroit. Those teams seemed to rely on their high picks to garner elite talent, and that elite talent was part of their winning core. Vancouver is what I classify as a 'poor' drafting team, but their core consists of 2 elite talents they drafted, supplemented with good trades and FA signings that got them into the Stanley Cup finals.

I don't see the Flames like Edmonton. I see the Flames closer to a team like Boston - they sucked, their fans were shouting for a rebuild, and the outlook was very gloomy for them. One or two bad years with great drafting, and a couple smart UFA signings/trades later, and they become an elite team. They had a lot of good pieces (just like the Flames). Calgary has a lot of good pieces moving forward - both in terms of assets that can be flipped for good prospects/picks, and assets that will remain on the Flames giving them depth and experience to not stay at the bottom for long.

A good draft or two, supplemented with a couple of good moves can drastically alter the direction of this franchise - especially when you take into account the age of some of the players who are making a difference on the team now.

[Badgers Nose]

Yes you are right. The media is creating a polemic which oversimplifies building a strong team in today's NHL. There are more than two choices when it comes to putting a winning team together.

I don't disagree with flames management when it comes to their assertion that a full-blown rebuild is a bad idea. I would hate to have to go to 20 games if the flames did a scorched-earth rebuild with the current bare cupboards.

But I also don't see them being clever with their asset management. Their overspending has them close to the ceiling of the cap and they do not seem to be getting very good value for the money spent. There are only a couple of bargain contract on this team. Most winning franchises seem to have a lot of very good contracts in their books and furthermore they have the flexibility to move those contracts to get valuable assets in return.

No movement clauses have really handcuffed this team's ability to obtain more draft picks. A player like Glencross could probably get you excellent picks at the trade deadline. And you know he would not mind being treated to Stanley Cup contender. If that's a problem for him then he's probably not the kind of player we want.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

We're talking about a potential top 3 or first overall pick here.

The difference in 5 years could be o'reilly vs. seguin/toews/landeskog/duchene/pat Kane...... Real franchise players.

That is what is one of the most damning things to me. It's a top 5 with potential to be even higher. In another year if you are picking 20-30, maybe it's a bit better gamble.

The Flames aren't in the top 5 today. Give them O'Reilly, Kiprusoff and Backlund and there is very little reason to think they would fall into it.

Sure, if you're advocating tanking and going full on rebuild that's a philosophy difference, and while I don't quite support it there's hard denying this would be a good year to do it in.

But if we're just talking the difference between, let's say, 10-20 pick and O'Reilly I'd take O'Reilly.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

What amazes me is the fact that flames ownership thinks attendance will drop off if the flames were to do a serious rebuild. If they were to get a bunch of exciting young players I think that would actually create a frenzy around this team.

I'm not too sure about this. I know it was a different time, but the young guns era stung the Flames hard, and in some ways I do not blame them for trying to avoid it.

I'm sure some fans will stick around for a few years of bottom feeding, but what if it takes 5 or 7? What happens if they get stuck in the Columbus or Islander forever rebuild? There is risk there too. The Oilers have shown improvement but are probably not going to make the playoffs either this year.

All I am saying is I agree the draft is important, but to blow it up is not without risk, major risk. A balanced approach of FA signings and good drafting will get you there, not one or the other.

I don't agree with the Flames approach right now, but understand and respect it. They are trying to turn this around with minimal pain to fans, and although it probably won't work, I'll wait and see what they do at the deadline.

[Mr.Coffee]

Organizations should play to their strengths, and fans need to know that it is about development as much as choosing the right guy on draft day.

The Flames are not organizationally strong at development, they either need to ramp up the budget in development and scouting, get the best people into the organization, or if they are unwilling to go that route, then yes they need to leverage their draft picks for good players that can help today. Not old ones, hopefully younger(ish) ones and hopefully complimentary players. If you want a star player, you can trade to get one, it's just a matter of what you're willing to give up. If you can't develop one, I suggest looking at free agency or trading your picks to get one.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I'm not too sure about this. I know it was a different time, but the young guns era stung the Flames hard, and in some ways I do not blame them for trying to avoid it.

I'm sure some fans will stick around for a few years of bottom feeding, but what if it takes 5 or 7? What happens if they get stuck in the Columbus or Islander forever rebuild? There is risk there too. The Oilers have shown improvement but are probably not going to make the playoffs either this year.

All I am saying is I agree the draft is important, but to blow it up is not without risk, major risk. A balanced approach of FA signings and good drafting will get you there, not one or the other.

I don't agree with the Flames approach right now, but understand and respect it. They are trying to turn this around with minimal pain to fans, and although it probably won't work, I'll wait and see what they do at the deadline.

I don't disagree with you, but what I'm saying is that there are more than two ways to build a contender.

It would not require a complete blowup to address some of this team's needs. And you don't have to be particularly creative to figure out how to do it. You just need to willingness to try.

Also, I think the bigger detriment during the young guns era was the general malaise in Calgary because of the incredibly low price of oil. All of those projects up north we're on hold and it was a time when the future of those projects was very uncertain. I think economics had a lot more to do with the state of the flames organization back.

Flames were being outspent by the elite teams in the league and fans were tired of stars leaving for greener pastures.