*Updated* Ongoing Bank of Canada Benchmark Rate Announcements

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Slava

And millennials are 40 year olds now. Plenty of millennials own homes, have kids and basically everything else we heard they’d never do.

They own homes at lower rates than previous generations though the latest data form stats can appears to be 2021 which would show Covid affects still.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Slava

And millennials are 40 year olds now. Plenty of millennials own homes, have kids and basically everything else we heard they’d never do.

Some of the millennials are 40, but plenty of us won't be 40 for um er like 2 years. The vast majority of millennials are in their 30s right now, with the current age range being 28-43 (according to Pew).

[Slava]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Some of the millennials are 40, but plenty of us won't be 40 for um er like 2 years. The vast majority of millennials are in their 30s right now, with the current age range being 28-43 (according to Pew).

Yeah of course there’s a range, and sometimes these generations and the hard boundaries are blurry.

[chemgear]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inf...2024-1.7148177

Canada's inflation rate slowed to 2.8% in February, beating expectations for 2nd month in a row

Canada's annual inflation rate cooled to 2.8 per cent in February, with the cost of cellular services, groceries and internet access services contributing to slower growth, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

Economists had largely expected the rate to rise to 3.1 per cent and undo some of the year's early progress.

For the first time in more than two years, grocery prices increased at a slower pace than the headline inflation rate, StatsCan said.

[The Fonz]

Jul/22 8.1% (peak)
Aug 7.6%
Sept 7.0%
Oct 6.9%
Nov 6.9%
Dec 6.8%
Jan/23 6.3%
Feb 5.9%
Mar 5.2%
Apr 4.3%
May 4.4%
Jun 3.4%
Jul 2.8%
Aug 3.3%
Sept 4.0%
Oct 3.8%
Nov 3.1%
Dec 3.1%
Jan/24 3.4%
Feb 2.8%


Do we see BOC rate cuts begin in April?

[Fire]

Canada shouldn't reduce rates until the US do. The CDN dollar is terrible already, we don't need to make it any worse.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Fire

Canada shouldn't reduce rates until the US do. The CDN dollar is terrible already, we don't need to make it any worse.

As someone that gets paid in USD, I disagree completely

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Fire

Canada shouldn't reduce rates until the US do. The CDN dollar is terrible already, we don't need to make it any worse.

I've been reading a lot about how the lack of economic growth is now affecting the CAD. At a certain point you have to loosen monetary policy or the currency gets too devalued from lack of economic growth.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Fire

Canada shouldn't reduce rates until the US do. The CDN dollar is terrible already, we don't need to make it any worse.

Originally Posted by blankall

I've been reading a lot about how the lack of economic growth is now affecting the CAD. At a certain point you have to loosen monetary policy or the currency gets too devalued from lack of economic growth.

I think with Canada and the US having a relatively open trade market, if Canada were to move first rather than directly weaking the CAD could expect to see the trade balance between the two countries compensate (especially when our unemployment rate is higher). More exports, more manufacturing increasing GDP should be the first response of the Canadian market if the BOC moves and the Fed doesn't.

There is the big wild card of irrational trade action that could be taken in 2025 if things go the wrong way in November, and it's real enough that people need to careful about establishing those supply chains, but usually cost trumps risk,

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by #-3

but usually cost trumps risk,

But does cost trump Trump risk?

Also, I think more manufacturing/exports probably only occur if the currency devalues - I don't think lower rates alone are enough to do it.

[you&me]

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but wouldn't it take a lower CA$ (resulting from a first-mover rate decrease) to bump manufacturing and exports, and ultimately GDP? I don't see exports taking off on their own and without that, there really wouldn't be much to support the current CA$ level if we lower first.

[Slava]

It's also not that simple. Interest rates are one factor when you look at exchange rates, but there are several and things are a little murkier. Remember that Canada increased rates earlier than the US did to kick off this hiking cycle and it's not like the CAD shot up at that point.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by you&me

As someone that gets paid in USD, I disagree completely

Me too!

[Paulie Walnuts]

Inflation in Alberta is still over 5% and might even grow.

When will Smith be called out and punted?

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Inflation in Alberta is still over 5% and might even grow.

When will Smith be called out and punted?

Alberta will definitely continue to have the highest inflation across Canada this year mostly because the gasoline tax was reinstated in January which was helping to keep inflation in check last year. Housing costs are still high and increasing so that doesn't help either.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Alberta will definitely continue to have the highest inflation across Canada this year mostly because the gasoline tax was reinstated in January which was helping to keep inflation in check last year. Housing costs are still high and increasing so that doesn't help either.

The electricity rebates last year are also a factor - we effectively had lower reported inflation because of that stuff last year, and now it's higher as we're measuring off a lower base from last year.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

But does cost trump Trump risk?

Also, I think more manufacturing/exports probably only occur if the currency devalues - I don't think lower rates alone are enough to do it.

I work for a Canadian manufacturer, primarily dealing Canadian origin raw material, and I can tell you are US exports are up, and we are projecting them to go up.

I think the currency is already devalued enough to spur big increases in export. What we should see up until any major trade action is taken, is that downward pressure on the dollar from lower interest rates, money printing, domestic economic capacity... should be offset by upward pressure from exports increasing gdp.

[Azure]

Can confirm, our US exports are growing fast because of the dollar.

[you&me]

It looks like the US is scaling back to a single rate cut, from the expectation of two previously.

As of yesterday, BoC was still signalling three... Come on 6-handle on the loonie

[bluejays]

I know there’s pretty wide thoughts from Canadian banks on this. Some are planning for three by the end of next year and some are planning for six. Not sure that’s valuable or not but it seems to be home prices will bust out again shortly as soon as rate cuts happen.