Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[getbak]

Originally Posted by rocksteady

Offer sheets? think about that for a moment, how many teams would give McDavid an offer sheet when the pay back is so high that it takes the org that offered it so far back that should they try to pull it off, the team will be cap max'd and no players to push for the cup?

If he reaches RFA status (which he won't), literally every team in the league will be lining up to give him an offer sheet. There aren't a lot of players for whom it would be worth giving up 4 first round picks, but he's definitely one of them. Also, given the Oilers' history with offer sheets, no team is going to do them any favours.

The only difficulty with giving him an offer sheet is that the Oilers would have the ability to match it, and you wouldn't be able to offer him any amount that the Oilers wouldn't match. A smart GM would give him a 4-year, maximum value offer sheet if he'd take it. That way, if the Oilers don't match, you get him right away. If they do match, he reaches UFA status as soon as possible.

[undercoverbrother]

There is a lot of back and forth in this thread, each presenting differing opinions.


But I think we can all agree:

E=NG

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by rocksteady

I... I think you're reaching here my good friend.
*Don't come here much, but I like to check in how you fine folks are doing*
Anywhoo.. your bring up a few points that I just have to take issue with. Firstly, let's talk about the McDavid contract being be a bad foundation for the team. I'm assuming you're talking from a dollar value and cap. Mcdavid will command 10M a year over 10 years (100M contact), and yes in it's current cap system the Oilers will be hard pressed to keep Draisaitl and Puljuljarvi and RNH.. and.. and.. but I think you're thinking in the present term. The cap will go up 3% this year as mandated by the NHLPA that gives the Oilers I think 3M for next season to add which is a decent player in itself. Connor is tied into the Oilers to 2018-19 season at his present rate so with simple math with a basis line of 3M per season the cap will go up 6M by the time McDavid commands his big contract (and by God, he'll get it) you have take aways from the books of the Ference signing (3.25), Pouliot will be gone by Vegas (*hoping*) Nurse and Benning are probably going to be re-upped but in the end the Oilers will have room. Will they be to the cap, heck yeah. Draisaitl isn't going to get more than 6 a year and less in a bridge deal so again no issue. Will the Oilers have to do finagling? You're right, they do, however foundational wreckage because of McDavid's contract? That's a reach. The Pens can and have done it with Malkin and Crosby, why don't you think the Oilers can?

Dumb owner... hey man he's surrounded his franchise with his idols.. yep that's dumb no argument. How about Bobby Nick and company? I think they are extremely well connected and smart hockey people. Bob Nicholson with his reach in running Hockey Canada, it's nothing but business smarts, and I think also hockey smarts - one thing for sure he's done a heck of a job running the OEG.

Chia's done some highly suspect signings. We're still not over the Hall trade and while I personally think the trade worked out because Larsson is pretty amazing, there are a few that which the number 4 wasn't Russell. In the end, he's got us to the playoffs and I really hope the Flames and Oilers meet up in the post. Chia's had a poor performance at the trade deadline and his announcement of "happy to be where the Oilers are" and "we're going to run with what we got" are concerning but hardly a cause for alarm or franchise faltering. In the end he got us to the playoffs, and should be commended for doing that.

As for the 3 players getting 300 - 500% raises, again an hysterical reach. The oilers will have to anti up some change to keep some of the players we have, Eberle may be gone but if Puljuljarvi keep progressing, he's a super cheap option. We are getting scoring from most of our team, not as even as we like but in the end we're not in "backup up the brink truck to pay them" territory.

Anyways, great thread, thjanks for listening and hope that I'm not eviscerated because I defended my team.

Thanks for stopping by! Your post is kind of all over the map, and much of it seems to be based loosely on a dream, but hey, something to get you through the rough decades, right?

I do believe that there is a team that is positioned well to offer mcdavid a max-ish contract. The team that you believe will take on the 4.25 million 5 goal scorer! Maybe mcphee will enjoy paying pouliot 10 000 dollars for every penalty he takes in the offensive zone. What a steal! If you think about it though, they'll want to make a bold move, sell hope to the locals that they're willing to move heaven and earth to become good instantly, and the only loss in the scenario is that they weaken a divisional rival by making them pay.

As for the oiler expansion pick, seems obvious from the roster that he'll take Reinhart because... Why not?

Draisaitl under 6? Every comparable says otherwise. I think you've undervalued contracts by 4-5 million, assumed that someone would take Eberle and pouliot (10 million) and assumed 6 million in added cap space. That puts you at 20 million of assumed cap space... Frankly I don't see a single one of them happening.

[CaptainCrunch]

Nobody is going to take Eberle or RNH for the full 6 million dollar contract, they're not worth that and as much as Oiler fans try to convince themselves that those two are slumping, they're not, what you see is what you get and neither grew into a $6 million dollar player. To get rid of them your taking a bad contract back and probably on a worse player.

There is no way that Draisaitl takes anything under $6 million, its likely that he'll push for 6.5 to 7.

[trumpethead]

This thread is giving me Gaudreauvertime flashbacks. Dear God make them stop.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by New Era

31 teams in the NHL.

No, they won't. There are a finite number of teams with the cap space to do that, and even if they could, what happens when they get him?

If you're paying one player $14M, that drives everyone else's salary up. Now if you want $10M, you don't need multiple cups and a Conn Smythe, you just need to be $4M worse than Connor.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

No, they won't. There are a finite number of teams with the cap space to do that, and even if they could, what happens when they get him?

If you're paying one player $14M, that drives everyone else's salary up. Now if you want $10M, you don't need multiple cups and a Conn Smythe, you just need to be $4M worse than Connor.

Edmonton has been a jerk franchise for a long time and I'm sure other GM's have noticed their track record with 1st round picks so I'm willing to bet that there is a GM out there who would gladly put the Oilers in a tight spot and give McDavid max term/dollar offer sheet. Wouldn't shock me in the least.

4 mid to late first round picks with Edmonton drafting?? Definitely could see this happen.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Edmonton has been a jerk franchise for a long time and I'm sure other GM's have noticed their track record with 1st round picks so I'm willing to bet that there is a GM out there who would gladly put the Oilers in a tight spot and give McDavid max term/dollar offer sheet. Wouldn't shock me in the least.

4 mid to late first round picks with Edmonton drafting?? Definitely could see this happen.

I'll go one step farther, I bet there's a GM out there that might offer a min term/max dollar offer sheet.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

I'll go one step farther, I bet there's a GM out there that might offer a min term/max dollar offer sheet.

So essentially we're arguing that someone will do this just to spite the Oilers? This despite the fact that outside of Boston and us, nobody in the league actually has much reason to dislike Edmonton.

Lowe and MacT aren't involved in hockey ops. Katz is a bit of a clown, but he got his arena built with public money. The owners probably love him.

Talent is borderline worthless in the NHL when it's on a bad contract. A $14M cap number for any hockey player is a bad contract.

[ZedMan]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So essentially we're arguing that someone will do this just to spite the Oilers? This despite the fact that outside of Boston and us, nobody in the league actually has much reason to dislike Edmonton.

Think the Sabres have forgotten the Vanek offer sheet?

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by ZedMan

Think the Sabres have forgotten the Vanek offer sheet?

Or the Anahiem/Penner fiasco.

Plus they fluked their way into 3 of their 4 1st overalls especially the one creating this discussion. They are an annoying team too because despite all this good fortune they've been a gong show and have already moved 2 of the 4 1sts.

I realize it's conjecture in some ways but I hope it happens.

[codynw]

I think there are probably more than just two teams that have issues with the Oilers. Winning four first overall picks in such a short span probably pissed off a few teams. Think Tim Murray was happy when he lost out on McDavid to that perennial dumpster fire?

[Calgary4LIfe]

It isn't just the 'enemies' of Edmonton. Remember San Jose signing Hjalmarsson to one years ago? It was meant to further affect Chicago's cap.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I for one would (for the first time) start doubting Treliving if he didn't get in line to offer-sheet McDavid if he didn't re-sign before then. He would get max dollars from a few teams, IMO, and he would be worth it.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So essentially we're arguing that someone will do this just to spite the Oilers? This despite the fact that outside of Boston and us, nobody in the league actually has much reason to dislike Edmonton.

Lowe and MacT aren't involved in hockey ops. Katz is a bit of a clown, but he got his arena built with public money. The owners probably love him.

Talent is borderline worthless in the NHL when it's on a bad contract. A $14M cap number for any hockey player is a bad contract.

Until Lowe is actually fired everyone knows he's still heavily involved behind the scenes with the team. I'm sure there's more than a few teams that would love to stick it to the Oilers.

How about a young team with a fading fanbase in need of a "jolt"? they offer 4 years/$60m? does Edmonton match knowing $15m in cap space will tear the team apart and knowing he'll walk as a UFA in 4 years.

How about Peter Karmanos, in his 70's, tonnes of money and loves his hurricanes and the game itself. you think he wouldn't love to spark his team and fanbase with a kid like McDavid before he croaks?

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Or the Anahiem/Penner fiasco.

Plus they fluked their way into 3 of their 4 1st overalls especially the one creating this discussion. They are an annoying team too because despite all this good fortune they've been a gong show and have already moved 2 of the 4 1sts.

I realize it's conjecture in some ways but I hope it happens.

They certainly would have it coming anyway. I mean this is the team that effectively eliminated the bridge deal.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ZedMan

Think the Sabres have forgotten the Vanek offer sheet?

And the guy who signed that offer sheet hasn't been the GM for nearly half a decade. The owner is different. The owner of the Sabres is different. The GM of the Sabres is different. And ultimately, nothing became of Vanek or the Oilers in those seven years anyway, so why is the grudge still relevant?

Nobody in Anaheim still cares about the Penner offersheet. Anaheim isn't a threat to give him $14M when they don't even spend to the cap.

I am all in favor of us offer sheeting McDavid for purely spiteful reasons, but I just don't see many teams that will be able to justify that acquisition cost from a hockey perspective, or even fit the move under the salary cap without completely ####ing their team.

For $14M, you can have Alexander Ovechkin and Vlasic. I simply don't see any team spending that much cap on a single player, doesn't matter who it is.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

And the guy who signed that offer sheet hasn't been the GM for nearly half a decade. The owner is different. The owner of the Sabres is different. The GM of the Sabres is different. And ultimately, nothing became of Vanek or the Oilers in those seven years anyway, so why is the grudge still relevant?

Nobody in Anaheim still cares about the Penner offersheet. Anaheim isn't a threat to give him $14M when they don't even spend to the cap.

I am all in favor of us offer sheeting McDavid for purely spiteful reasons, but I just don't see many teams that will be able to justify that acquisition cost from a hockey perspective, or even fit the move under the salary cap without completely ####ing their team.

For $14M, you can have Alexander Ovechkin and Vlasic. I simply don't see any team spending that much cap on a single player, doesn't matter who it is.

The bolded is true, and would be money better spent.

But McDavid at 14 million is still better value than let's say - Brouwer, Stajan and Wideman.

McDavid at 14 million makes it extremely important for a GM not to give out a bad contract, that's for sure, or force themselves into the Chicago Blackhawks in how they are constantly using ELCs or cheap contracts to fill out there roster, yet they have won cups doing exactly this. Harder to manage? For sure, but it is also very, very possible.

Edmonton is screwed somewhat because of:

Lucic cap hit
Eberle and RNH contracts - though I think these two are moveable
Draisaitl will command a big contract as well
If Puljujarvi works out, in 2 years he will be up for a larger contract (though who knows)
Plus, the Oilers need to get better D (or if their existing D continue to improve, they will be paid accordingly).

All this without much in the pipeline for those cheap ELC contracts to help them out like the Blackhawks. That's the problem. I am sure they will manage it (though Chiarelli seemed to have a difficult time managing Boston's cap).

If I am the Flames, I put that offer sheet out there. Worst case scenario - Oilers match and their rivals just ensured there is no hometown discount. Best case scenario - they just acquired a generational player for free (nothing off the roster), and those 4 first round picks are a bargain. Treliving will have to tread more carefully around cap management, but there are guys coming up the pipe that should be able to replace some existing roster players cheaply. This means no more expensive contracts on the bottom pair of defence, and no expensive contracts on the 4th line - and only a center counting as expensive for the third line.

Workable. The first year after the acquisition may be tough with having to play more young players who sink more than swim, but as a couple of other contracts come of the books, it becomes easier. With a rising cap (which is never a guarantee, but it usually does happen) it gives even more wiggle room.

Teams will spend the bulk of their money on the core. No more expensive signings outside the core. I think most teams would find a way to accommodate McDavid, and I would bet that teams within the division would be eager to ensure McDavid gets the max contract offer to make life as difficult for the Oilers as possible. San Jose has a precedent of doing exactly that, with the same GM currently in tenure.

[calgaryblood]

The more I think of it the more I think an offer sheet is likely for McDavid. The Oilers have burnt bridges with their offer sheets and I'm betting there are teams who didn't forget and MCDavid is worth the picks you'd give up. He's actually worth a lot more and any team would be more than happy to give up 4 first round picks for him.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

The more I think of it the more I think an offer sheet is likely for McDavid. The Oilers have burnt bridges with their offer sheets and I'm betting there are teams who didn't forget and MCDavid is worth the picks you'd give up. He's actually worth a lot more and any team would be more than happy to give up 4 first round picks for him.

I will be absolutely shocked if it ever gets to a point that he's eligible for an offer sheet. I expect him to be signed sometime in early July, almost a full year before he'd reach RFA status.

Crosby's second contract was signed on July 7. I expect McDavid's to be signed even earlier than that. In fact, the most Oilery thing to do would be to make sure his signing is the first one announced on July 1, before any of this year's UFAs, just to show how much they really love him.

[calgaryblood]

You can't overlook the McDavid looks unhappy factor. He looks like someone just told him he'll be in solitary confinement for the rest of his life everyday.

He truly looks sad compared to how happy he looked as a teenager. The heartbreak when Edmonton won the lottery was written all over his face and he was devastated. Oilers might love him and want to sign him but I don't think the feeling is mutual.