Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
Nevermind, not worth the headache.
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Man, it's like listening to my kids argue.
Fuzz is right. He's saying, based on the words, the value is incorrect - it should be 1.
Shantz is right too. He's saying, based on the value, the words are incorrect - it should read "galaxies the size of the milky way".
You're both right. Imagine that!
On the more serious side, however, Shantz has more going for his argument, but Fuzz can easily be justified for his stance - the issue is with the graphic (and accompanying article).
Drake's equation is based on probability, but the graphic as presented uses language that is trying to resonate more with the average reader (it's from the Business Insider). I see this all the time with articles about mathematics that are meant for a broader audience, and it drives me crazy.
Strangely enough, the article itself gives the proper interpretation, though it mixes its context:
Quote:
The total number of civilizations that we calculate relies very heavily on our assumptions. Our optimistic estimates suggest a fairly crowded galaxy, with around 140,000 species like us living in the Milky Way. Turn the inputs down a couple orders of magnitude, as we do in our pessimistic assumptions, and life is so rare that only around 1% of galaxies like our own will be likely to host even one complex civilization.
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When talking about the optimistic side of things, it refers specifically to life inside the Milky Way. But when talking about the pessimistic side of things, it refers to "Milky Way-like" galaxies.
Bottom line - let's try to get along - there may not be any other civilizations with which to make friends