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Old 05-07-2017, 12:02 AM   #61
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I don't think you're understanding the service. It wouldn't work in rural areas, but it would work in Calgary just fine. At any point in time, there would be a car within 1 minute of where you are based on density and it would come for you. Think of it exactly like uber, but with exponentially more cars available and made more convenient by algorithms having placed them in more conveniently available areas. The car picks you up and drops you off as often as you like.

For example, after a hockey game there would be thousands of cars available at a set of pre determined areas. You hop in and go. You want to go to the mall at 3pm on a wednesday, you open the app, hail a car, and within a minute it's there. All for much lower than owning a car, because that one car transports about 5-10 times as many people as 1 car owned by a single owner.
And so if you live in the suburbs or outside the city, the idea would be that you have a self-driving vehicle of your own? If not, you drive to these pre-determined areas, park, and get in a publicly available unit?

I'm just trying to envision all this and the marginal benefits really don't seem to be worth the costs at all. Our entire infrastructure system would have to be completely redesigned and redeveloped. It just doesn't feel like this will ever be a concern in my life time. It's like Back to the Future II predicting 2015 in 1987.

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Old 05-07-2017, 12:06 AM   #62
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What about the transportation industry, is there an electric engine that provides enough torque to haul around the heavy loads that we see these days? Or power heavy construction equipment?

2030 seems a tad too soon to be writing off O&G
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:07 AM   #63
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Why would it drop so much? Uber rates are already unsustainable as it is the largest money loser in the tech startup history because it tries to compete with private transport and mass transit. And where its drivers make do with low pay and drive old but cheap to operate cars.

And if operating costs of a vehicle dropped so much, people would just buy more of it so they wouldn't ever have to deal with hassles of strangers ever again. In that future, people needing to rent a ride will be as rare as people today that need pay phones.
Think of it as I posted above. What's the biggest cost to Uber? People.

Remove people, increase capacity and scale and it's quite cheap. Your car sits for over 90% of it's life (higher for most people), yet still costs you for insurance, cost of the vehicle itself, maintenance, tires, fuel, etc. If you cut insurance down by 90% (autonomous cars would likely reduce accidents by at least this amount), split the rest (excluding fuel) by the other 9 people riding the car. You also don't have to pay for the driver. That $9 uber ride now has a cost of a couple bucks at most.
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:10 AM   #64
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I think today is officially the day I become old. This discussion is making me wish it was 2010 for the rest of my life
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:13 AM   #65
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Think of it as I posted above. What's the biggest cost to Uber? People.
And the biggest cut of the driver's share ends up going to pay for the car. Which Uber has to pay for if it owns its own cars.

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If you cut insurance down by 90% (autonomous cars would likely reduce accidents by at least this amount),
Which would also apply to your privately owned autonomous car.

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split the rest (excluding fuel) by the other 9 people riding the car.
Only if the 9 other people have the exact same start and destination. Otherwise, based on the experiences of taxi and Uber drivers, the car actually drives much more to deliver 9 people to their destinations, with such cars typically spend inghalf or more their actual driving distances empty with no passengers, which ends up reducing the life of such cars much more rapidly.

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You also don't have to pay for the driver. That $9 uber ride now has a cost of a couple bucks at most.
But when you have your own car, you don't have to pay yourself. That's what TAAS has to compete against, and why autonomous privately owned cars will annihilate TAAS.

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Old 05-07-2017, 12:17 AM   #66
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Canadian cities also have a much further ways to go in terms of autonomous driving. What happens when we get 10 inches of snow over night in December? The city shuts down?
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:22 AM   #67
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And the biggest cut of the driver's share ends up going to pay for the car. Which Uber has to pay for if it owns its own cars.

Which would also apply to your privately owned autonomous car.

Only if the 9 other people have the exact same start and destination. Otherwise, based on the experiences of taxi and Uber drivers, the car actually drives much more to deliver 9 people to their destinations, with such cars typically spend half or more their actual driving distances empty with no passengers, which ends up reducing the life of such cars much more rapidly.

But when you have your own car, you don't have to pay yourself. That's what TAAS has to compete against, and why autonomous privately owned cars will annihilate TAAS.
That's not true if Scale and efficiency attained, which should be very simple with computer algorithms. There's no reason a service Car would be riding more empty than full. If adoption rates are high there's a pick up close to every drop off.
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:25 AM   #68
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That's not true if Scale and efficiency attained, which should be very simple with computer algorithms. There's no reason a service Car would be riding more empty than full. If adoption rates are high there's a pick up close to every drop off.
Then that means your drive into work is stopping those 10 times to drop off other people, and at the same time also picking people up. This is simply not realistic. Your 30 min drive to work now becomes 2 hours.
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:30 AM   #69
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Then that means your drive into work is stopping those 10 times to drop off other people, and at the same time also picking people up. This is simply not realistic. Your 30 min drive to work now becomes 2 hours.
Right, those things are why services like Uber Pool are so horrible unless you get lucky and don't get matched with another passenger.
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:38 AM   #70
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Then that means your drive into work is stopping those 10 times to drop off other people, and at the same time also picking people up. This is simply not realistic. Your 30 min drive to work now becomes 2 hours.
No, you're not picking anyone else up or dropping anyone else off. There's no need. The car that picked you up will drop you up the nearest person calling for a car. It's Uber on scale without people driving
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:45 AM   #71
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No, you're not picking anyone else up or dropping anyone else off. There's no need. The car that picked you up will drop you up the nearest person calling for a car. It's Uber on scale without people driving
But transportation demand isn't randomly distributed, it's often directional and changes with time. Using your previous example of the hockey game, you have a car drive passengers to the arena. But where's your next fare going to come from? There's unlikely to be much demand from the arena for the next three hours. And then after the game, when you drive people home to the suburbs, how much demand will there be from the suburbs at midnight? Even if you're lucky enough to get a fare, it's likely going to be fair distance away.

These are issues that kill profitability and are currently best addressed by not taking fares that are too far away. Something that a service that is trying to replace private transport and mass transit can't do.

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Old 05-07-2017, 12:50 AM   #72
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What about the transportation industry, is there an electric engine that provides enough torque to haul around the heavy loads that we see these days? Or power heavy construction equipment?

2030 seems a tad too soon to be writing off O&G
Did people just gloss over this question? How are construction workers going to haul around heavy equipment as well?

Agreed, 2030 is absurd.
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:58 AM   #73
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But transportation demand isn't randomly distributed, it's often directional and changes with time. Using your previous example of the hockey game, you have a car drive passengers to the arena. But where's your next fare going to come from? There's unlikely to be much demand from the arena for the next three hours. And then after the game, when you drive people home to the suburbs, how much demand will there be from the suburbs at midnight?

These are issues that kill profitability and are currently best addressed by not taking fares that are too far away. Something that a service that is trying to replace private transport and mass transit can't do.
It's literally no different than Uber now, except with the ability to send cars to anticipated needs easier. Traffic is directional and predictable. It's not random at all on a macro level.

As for the question above, there is no demand anywhere at midnight. The demand will be in the morning and the cars will be ready somewhere nearby.
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Old 05-07-2017, 01:09 AM   #74
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What about the transportation industry, is there an electric engine that provides enough torque to haul around the heavy loads that we see these days? Or power heavy construction equipment?

2030 seems a tad too soon to be writing off O&G
Plans are in the mix for diesel electric engines for heavy trucks(hybrid of sorts) and another is the Nikola(available now). it's a 1000 hp/2000 ft torgue hydrogen-powered turbine that the company claims can go 1200 miles on full tanks for 1/3 of the costs. One feature that caught my eye was it charges the batteries when going down hill instead of wearing out the brakes, brake jobs are a huge cost for truckers. It also can go up hill at 110k loaded ...something diesel powered trucks have serious trouble with.

Like it or not, Stuff like this is the future and is happening.





https://nikolamotor.com/one

Oh! Buy the truck($375k) and get a free 1 million miles worth of Hydrogen cells

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Old 05-07-2017, 01:27 AM   #75
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This has become a really weird conversation.

I've seen forklifts and CTrains right here in Calgary, so I know that electric vehicles are capable of hauling heavy loads.

I've also seen incredible advancements in technology and efficiency pretty much every day of my life (and so have you!). What is possible now won't be what's possible in a few years.

I've been playing Joust all night on an aluminum/glass disc that fits in my pocket because I'm going through a nasty divorce and it keeps my mind off things. When I was a kid, I had to play Joust on 300 pound machine in a room in a mall, and I even had to put quarters into it.

Things change.
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Old 05-07-2017, 01:50 AM   #76
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Despite all these arguments. I'm not interested in sharing with other people. I want my own ride. Self driving or not. And I bet more people than the study suggests would share this opinion.
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Old 05-07-2017, 01:52 AM   #77
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I know that electric vehicles are capable of hauling heavy loads.
It's been the case for a long time, problem has been the weight of the batteries or how to create the electricity for the engines. In cases like train locomotives they don't care about weight, a big diesel drives the alternator to provide AC to the electric motors.
Alone the 5 or 6000 hp diesel in a locomotive wouldn't get you very far or very fast.
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:34 AM   #78
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Despite all these arguments. I'm not interested in sharing with other people. I want my own ride. Self driving or not. And I bet more people than the study suggests would share this opinion.
Perhaps, but this is not just a conversation about our own preferences but the total market. It's less about whether you or I like the idea as much as whether a compelling new taas service is possible; and if so what could that mean for Alberta.
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Old 05-07-2017, 04:09 AM   #79
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Despite all these arguments. I'm not interested in sharing with other people. I want my own ride. Self driving or not. And I bet more people than the study suggests would share this opinion.
Agreed, but mostly only for pleasure purposes would be my guess. There's more to driving than point A to B, but for things like commute when it is A to B, people will adopt quickly.
There will be business models that cater to all tastes and price levels in ride sharing. Most people can't afford a BMW, but could afford a ride share equivalent for one. A no kids service, etc.
But yeah, widespread adoption by 2030 is crazy talk.
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Old 05-07-2017, 08:05 AM   #80
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Despite all these arguments. I'm not interested in sharing with other people. I want my own ride. Self driving or not. And I bet more people than the study suggests would share this opinion.
In LA you just pick UberX rather than Rideshare. I never share my Uber.

Is that not an option in Cgy?
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