Monthly Market Update

[Travis Munroe]

Condos are a bit of a challenge right now.
That said, I am still seeing plenty list and sell in under a few days... I personally am finding that inner city condo buyers know what they are after and will wait for it. When a certain attractive unit pops up on the market, you have a feeding frenzy on it and it sells for top dollar.
In years past, the buyers who miss out settle for option B or C where as they are now waiting for that option A to hit the market again.

[Travis Munroe]

Bump for updated original post - continuing to stay stable!

[JRW]

"The central bank listed the country's climbing level of household debt and its persistently overvalued real estate market as key vulnerabilities in the financial system."

Maybe not the best time to shop, when your own national central bank tells you it's worried about the possibility of a widespread housing price correction.

Let's see what happens when the oil goes down below $50/barrel again, which is still very possible.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/debt-...-boc-1.2417289

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by JRW

"The central bank listed the country's climbing level of household debt and its persistently overvalued real estate market as key vulnerabilities in the financial system."
[/URL]

They have been saying this for how long now? Not saying they will never be right and one day they will be right. What I'm saying is just becasue Central Bank says something, doesn't make it an accurate prediction automatically.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Bump for updated original post - continuing to stay stable!

Crazy, it's tipping towards a sellers market in May.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Condos are a bit of a challenge right now.
That said, I am still seeing plenty list and sell in under a few days... I personally am finding that inner city condo buyers know what they are after and will wait for it. When a certain attractive unit pops up on the market, you have a feeding frenzy on it and it sells for top dollar.
In years past, the buyers who miss out settle for option B or C where as they are now waiting for that option A to hit the market again.

Very positive way of saying the average condo price is down 17% year over year.

Edit: source: Creb.com

Originally Posted by darklord700

Crazy, it's tipping towards a sellers market in May.

Would you mind sharing the rational for this argument? I am interested in your metrics.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Would you mind sharing the rational for this argument? I am interested in your metrics.

Look at Travis' first post, in May, we have 2.44 month of inventory. Thus my inference it was "tipping" towards a sellers market in a balanced market.

[polak]

Originally Posted by JRW

"The central bank listed the country's climbing level of household debt and its persistently overvalued real estate market as key vulnerabilities in the financial system."

Maybe not the best time to shop, when your own national central bank tells you it's worried about the possibility of a widespread housing price correction.

Let's see what happens when the oil goes down below $50/barrel again, which is still very possible.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/debt-...-boc-1.2417289

Any actual numbers being thrown around for a housing bubble correction?

It seems like every time these articles come out there's always a "it should burst but... It seems to be going higher"...

EDIT: Just read the article... Sort of misrepresenting what Poloz said...

"The report said the steep drop in crude prices had left the country more vulnerable to any significant event that would lead to widespread job losses and falling incomes.

The consequences would reduce the ability of Canadians to service their ever-rising debt loads and could set off a widespread housing price correction, the bank warned. It identified the country's climbing level of household debt and its persistently overvalued real estate market as key vulnerabilities.

The review also pointed to particular weaknesses in the crude-producing region of Alberta, where the proportion of highly indebted households is among the highest in Canada.

The document, however, also noted how the oil slump on its own was unlikely to set off considerable systemic stress and the probability of a severe recession remained low. It also said financial reforms underway in Canada and abroad have put the Canadian system on better footing to absorb economic shocks."

So what he's saying is the low oil prices combined with the debt and housing bubble could be a problem in the event that some sort of major economic shock occurred that caused widespread job losses but that the low oil prices are unlikely to cause such a shock.

So really, nothing that a normal person couldn't tell you already. If sh*t hits the fan, we're all ####ed.

[JRW]

Misrepresenting? I don't think so... I did say "worried about the possibility"... for details see the article that I quoted.

But anywhoo, I agree this has been going on for a long time. And the longer it goes on, the higher the housing market goes, the less likely the correction is to happen, correct? That seems to be a general train of thought here on this board.

I'm sure there is nothing in the future that could further stress our economy. Official recession in Alberta is almost guaranteed, but hey it's going to be a small one. The oil price will continue to be low for the foreseeable future. The layoffs continue...

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/forecast-s...year-1.2426358

It's just peachy out there!

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Very positive way of saying the average condo price is down 17% year over year.

to promote clear stats, this has since changed for the month of June to about -5%.

I assumed before being halfway through the month the trend would of at least remained constant for the month.

[polak]

Originally Posted by JRW

Misrepresenting? I don't think so... I did say "worried about the possibility"... for details see the article that I quoted.

But anywhoo, I agree this has been going on for a long time. And the longer it goes on, the higher the housing market goes, the less likely the correction is to happen, correct? That seems to be a general train of thought here on this board.

I'm sure there is nothing in the future that could further stress our economy. Official recession in Alberta is almost guaranteed, but hey it's going to be a small one. The oil price will continue to be low for the foreseeable future. The layoffs continue...

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/forecast-s...year-1.2426358

It's just peachy out there!

I'd say the further up it goes, the higher the price will be at the correction.

[Property Manager DB]

Just read an interesting article in the herald.
http://calgaryherald.com/business/re...d-half-of-2015

With your experience Realtor 1 - what's your take?

[JRW]

And so the saga continues.

Oil price once again below $40. Official recession to be announced in a month. Layoffs continue. Yet house prices relatively stable. How long do you guys think this will last?

The naysayers say it's business as usual. Others including me have been saying this will take at least a year to reflect on the real estate, and I stand by that prediction. If the market doesn't break by the beginning of next year, and doesn't come back down to earth, I'll be really surprised.

I continue to wait to purchase a house, and reject the used house salesman continuously telling me now is the best time to buy!!!

what do the esteemed calgarypuck members think?

[malcolmk14]

Would love to see some updated stats.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by JRW

what do the esteemed calgarypuck members think?

This esteemed housing market pundit think if you have waited this long, might as well wait until Christmas or new year which generally is lowest point of the season.

[Travis Munroe]

I can't help but laugh at JRW and his posts / little jabs.

It has now been about 8-9 months since the start of the correction discussion. If you are waiting to buy (lets say a $400,000 property), chances are you have spent at least $15,000 in rental payments over the 8-9 months. As it sits right now, you have not saved a dime as that specific market has not correct itself that much.

If you are looking at a 1.5 million dollar property, chances are you have come out on top by waiting as the luxury market has taken the majority of the hit.

Also in response to JRW's comment about it taking a year for the recession to impact the housing market, I don't believe many have disagreed....it is pretty common sense that housing price corrections / foreclosures, etc dont happen the day the first layoff is announced.
The real debate is the duration of these down times as housing prices can often hold their own for up to a year when times are down but typically stabilize the moment things start looking up.

Signed : Not JRW's used house salesman

[polak]

Frankly, I love that the parking stall next to me is empty every day. Only unit that hasn't been sold in my building

[TSXCman]

Originally Posted by polak

Frankly, I love that the parking stall next to me is empty every day. Only unit that hasn't been sold in my building

Which building did you buy in?

[polak]

Originally Posted by TSXCman

Which building did you buy in?

51 Oak in Mahogany.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I can't help but laugh at JRW and his posts / little jabs.

It has now been about 8-9 months since the start of the correction discussion. If you are waiting to buy (lets say a $400,000 property), chances are you have spent at least $15,000 in rental payments over the 8-9 months. As it sits right now, you have not saved a dime as that specific market has not correct itself that much.

Well, to be fair, if he had bought a $400,000 house, he would have likely spent pretty close to $15,000 in property tax, interest and repairs.