What percentage would you put on the Flames making the post season?

[edn88]

A long time ago I could do the math that would tell you what the probability is that this six game sample is representative of the whole season, but I seem to recall that the odds of a winning team having a 1-4-1 stretch over 7% of a season are pretty low.

Election results are called on lower percentages of reporting districts. If SportsClubStats says 29%, I'd say that is the best chance they have. Would love to be proven wrong.

[bubbsy]

Playoffs!?... playoffs??

[Finger Cookin]

SportsClubStats has the probabilities at 29.7% using it's weighted method (taking the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores), and at 41.4% using the 50/50 coin flip method. Weighting the results after 6 games seems premature.

[Poe969]

I say we have a better chance at getting Nolan Patrick then making the playoffs.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

SportsClubStats has the probabilities at 29.7% using it's weighted method (taking the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores), and at 41.4% using the 50/50 coin flip method. Weighting the results after 6 games seems premature.

Not to mention if the Flames win their next game, the percentages change dramatically.

[Mass_nerder]

23%
But if Monahan continues to ghost, 13%

[Zulu29]

I'd say 50/50 at this point, but if the losing ways go past 5 games less than 10%

[GGG]

Originally Posted by edn88

A long time ago I could do the math that would tell you what the probability is that this six game sample is representative of the whole season, but I seem to recall that the odds of a winning team having a 1-4-1 stretch over 7% of a season are pretty low.

Election results are called on lower percentages of reporting districts. If SportsClubStats says 29%, I'd say that is the best chance they have. Would love to be proven wrong.

The Penguins did it last year. Went 1-6-1 and lost 4 in a row a separate time.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/team...016_games.html

I would disagree that the odds of it happening are that low but am too lazy to calculate. I suspect at least 25% of playoff teams have 6 game stretches of 1-4-1 or worse

Edit: sharks did to 1-5-0 after a 4 game win streak to start the season, so did Tampa, so did Chicago.

Of the 5 teams I've checked only St Louis didn't have a 1-4-1 6 game segment or worse and they had a 1-3-1.

[FlamesFan68]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Not to mention if the Flames win their next game, the percentages change dramatically.

Mine would not change after 1 win. Unless perhaps if they won 10-1 blowout again'st Chicago. If they win 1-0 in an overtime game but were out shot by Chicago 40-15, I would not change my prediction at all.

We have a small sample size. Based more than just on wins and loses, but on how the team is playing and the systems employed, I'd stick with 10%

[442scotty]

Zero chance of the playoffs at this point.... I would be happy if they at least entertain us now

[trublmaker]

its early yet but the effort so far lacking its not lookin good to go anywhere

[hockey.modern]

Let's remember, in the first 6 six games last season, the Ducks went 1-4-1 as well and we all know how that went. Still lots of hockey to be played.

[CsInMyBlood]

50-50 at this point.

Things have to change. We know how these guys can play and they haven't been close to it yet.

[White Out 403]

5%

[GranteedEV]

100℅

[442scotty]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

5%

You are too kind... The jets, my other favourite team have about 5% after getting smeared at home, in a big outdoor national event..

[Cali Panthers Fan]

It was always about 50/50 going into the season. Improvements and changes were made to both the roster and coaching staff, but based on last year's results, there was a long way to go even if things went well.

Now, with the rough start of our star players and the inability of the coaching staff to get the team to play a cohesive game, I would drop those chances to around 20%.

Not because I think a season is lost just a few games in, but more because the team will be too far behind by the time they get things figured out...if they ever do.

[Flames_F.T.W]

It's a bit of a fluff piece, but the newest Darren Haynes article has me feeling a little better about this season's slow start

http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2016/...r-new-nhl.html

[Caged Great]

90%

This team is deeper than Arizona, Los Angeles, and Vancouver at a minimum and over 82 games, they should be better than each of them. The McDavid factor is a question mark.

Three teams make it, two should be in (SJ + ANA)

So it could come down to a battle of Alberta for the last spot. Not sure the Pacific will get a wild card spot.

[taco.vidal]

There is a small mathematical chance but the reality is this the run the team would need to go on isnt going to happen. .700 or better for the remainder of the season? The team isnt that good on paper if you even imagine everyone having career seasons.