2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Actually it's pretty close to what he was projected to get. He was a 3WAR pitcher last year... if he can be that again then it's a bargain.

he had never been higher than 1.9 before, and he gained most of his WAR in the NL

The batters Happ faced as a Mariner have averaged a .329 wOBA against lefties over the past three years. The batters Happ has faced as a Pirate have averaged a .304 wOBA against lefties over the past three years. That split is even bigger. Happ, in short, has faced worse hitters. Significantly worse hitters. He’s faced more lefties, but he’s also just faced worse righties. It’s not at all like every opponent since joining the Pirates has been bad — Happ has had to deal with, say, Paul Goldschmidt — but there’s no getting around this point. When opponents are worse, performance is better. That’s always true, given enough time.

[d_phaneuf]

I actually dont mind them not going big on Price or another SP, because they will have Stroman as an Ace and in general I think a rotation like they have set up now isnt terrible

1 Ace, and the 3 guys behind him have proven to be innings eaters

But I hope this means they are adding at least 2-3 more Bullpen pieces

[Skaloper]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

So it's safe to say the rotation will be Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Happ, Chavez?

Yeah, that's not going to cut it.

Sanchez or Osuna could be in the mix and I still think that the Jays will move a big bat for an arm.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Skaloper

Sanchez or Osuna could be in the mix and I still think that the Jays will move a big bat for an arm.

Having just acquired Happ and Chavez, I would be very surprised if they do anything else. I'm pretty sure what you see is what you get. I would wager that Sanchez and Osuna are going to be bullpen guys again, at least to start. I could see them picking up another lefty for the pen, but that's about it.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

The problem with that is none of Estrada, Happ or Chavez have a track record of eating innings, much less being successful prior to last season. This could easily be a disaster, we're basically relying on older guys to prove that last season was the new norm despite years of evidence to the contrary. Pretty much a series of half measures any way you slice it.

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

I actually dont mind them not going big on Price or another SP, because they will have Stroman as an Ace and in general I think a rotation like they have set up now isnt terrible

1 Ace, and the 3 guys behind him have proven to be innings eaters

But I hope this means they are adding at least 2-3 more Bullpen pieces

[bluejays]

I have a few thoughts on this. Firstly, I don't mind this signing at all. It's an expensive #4-5 starter, but on a championship team, they need to do it. Whether Happ can bring it in the AL is another question, but he put up some amazing numbers the second half.

That brings us to what the next move will be. I can't see this starting rotation being the starting rotation day one. There MUST be a major signing or trade to get a legit #1. Stroman under no circumstances is that guy - yet. I still think Edwin or Jose get dealt in order to shore up the bullpen/starting rotation, but I think that only happens if Price can't be signed. If Price signs, the pen has to be developed, and that'll have to be done through minor deals here and there ie: moving Saunders, Colabello, etc.

[Roof-Daddy]

Pretty frightening rotation. Could go either way, if this is the final product. Of course, Happ could easily be a long man out of the pen if a younger guy forces his way into the rotation.

1. Stroman
2. Estrada
3. Dickey
4. Chavez
5. Happ / Hutchison / Sanchez / Osuna?

Yikes.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

The problem with that is none of Estrada, Happ or Chavez have a track record of eating innings, much less being successful prior to last season. This could easily be a disaster, we're basically relying on older guys to prove that last season was the new norm despite years of evidence to the contrary. Pretty much a series of half measures any way you slice it.

Yeah, that was a classic AA move when he first became GM. Sign/trade for a bunch of guys who are injury prone or projects, and when it doesn't work out for those same reasons, it's was an excuse at seasons end. It drove me crazy when every year we heard, if x player wasn't injured it could have been different. Well, you knew they were an injury concern coming in, don't say that wasn't foreseeable here. With Chavez I'm pretty concerned if he's on the opening day roster. I'd deal him to get better long guns in the bullpen.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Pretty frightening rotation. Could go either way, if this is the final product. Of course, Happ could easily be a long man out of the pen if a younger guy forces his way into the rotation.

1. Stroman
2. Estrada
3. Dickey
4. Chavez
5. Happ / Hutchison / Sanchez / Osuna?

Yikes.

You think that's good? Personally I don't as it's missing the Ace. I've all but given up on Hutchison, and I think Sanchez and Osuna fit in well where they are.

[Caged Great]

That there is one of the worst rotations in the entire MLB.

Everything would have to go perfectly for it to be just okay.

Another year of 75-80 wins coming up.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by fleury

Yeah, that was a classic AA move when he first became GM. Sign/trade for a bunch of guys who are injury prone or projects, and when it doesn't work out for those same reasons, it's was an excuse at seasons end. It drove me crazy when every year we heard, if x player wasn't injured it could have been different. Well, you knew they were an injury concern coming in, don't say that wasn't foreseeable here. With Chavez I'm pretty concerned if he's on the opening day roster. I'd deal him to get better long guns in the bullpen.

Yep, pretty frustrating. I guess we could see Chavez in the pen, he's been there most of his career. Happ will be in the rotation IMO. I suppose a bat could be moved for an arm but I doubt it. I think Happ is Price's replacement essentially and they're just hoping for the best with the rest of them. Stroman is the only one I have tons of confidence in even though Estrada was really impressive last year. The worry with him is that he starts to get figured out. A guy like him has such a thin margin of error, he could go either way. We need him to replicate his 2015 season except we need 190-200 innings this time. I'm not sure if that's too much too expect, it kind of seems like it is.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by fleury

You think that's good? Personally I don't as it's missing the Ace. I've all but given up on Hutchison, and I think Sanchez and Osuna fit in well where they are.

Good? No. In fact, I said it was pretty frightening.

[The Big Chill]

Did Happ get better after he left the Jays? Seems a weird pickup.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Happ was great down the stretch last season wasn't he, IIRC? But I guess that was the N.L., so take it with a grain of salt, hope he can continue doing something similar next season.

Not a huge fan of the signing, especially if that's it for the starters. Need to bolster the pen or something, anything. Can't see it being the last move of the off-season.

[TheAlpineOracle]

If this is the starting rotation in April, this an absolute slap in tbe face to every Jays fan across this country.

[Senator Clay Davis]

It's an ok signing, overpay but if he pitches to potential it works fine. I would guess Price is out now but you never know. If that's it for starters then you obviously need to upgrade the pen.

[TheAlpineOracle]

I actually like the signing of Happ. I was disappointed when they traded him last time. That said, if this is their answer to not signing Price, that is complete BS. I'd like to give them the benefit of a doubt and say this is simply a depth signing, but I've seen this show for too many years.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

The problem with that is none of Estrada, Happ or Chavez have a track record of eating innings, much less being successful prior to last season. This could easily be a disaster, we're basically relying on older guys to prove that last season was the new norm despite years of evidence to the contrary. Pretty much a series of half measures any way you slice it.

Happ has 4 of his last 5 seasons over 144, and in that 144 season he was a reliever partially

Estrada has 150/182 the last 2 years, and 130/140 the 2 years before that

Ill take 150 innings out of the 3/4 pitchers, when Dickey is going to give close to 200+ and hopefully Stroman gets near it as well

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I actually like the signing of Happ. I was disappointed when they traded him last time. That said, if this is their answer to not signing Price, that is complete BS. I'd like to give them the benefit of a doubt and say this is simply a depth signing, but I've seen this show for too many years.

I think they're already at 140m with the addition of Happ. I doubt anything else of significance happens, barring a trade.

[Caged Great]

The signing isolated in itself isn't bad in terms of value/years.

The problem mainly has to do with the fact the Jays have a #2 and 4 #4/5 guys now. Estrada likely will regress, and Happ is more likely to be the Seattle/Toronto version not the Pittsburgh version.

If things go perfectly (no regression) then they will be fine.

As the Flames have shown, regression can bite you hard in the ass though.

If they do struggle, the Flames will only have Stroman as a quality guy. The team will have to rely largely on generating a ton of offense to win games.