Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

This team's windows is closing, not sure why you think leaving the bullpen to chance is a wise idea.

I said they need another lefty... it's just that another decent lefty is all they need. What they don't need is to spend an orgy of money and all the top prospects for Chapman, Miller, and and a clone of prime Mariano Rivera.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

The Jays bullpen was fantastic in the postseason. This is, with the exception of Cecil, the same pen we're going to war with heading into this season.

With a LHP specialist to replace Cecil, the pen will be just fine to start the year.

People said the pen would be just fine to start last year as well, and we all know how that went.

You are ignoring the departure of Benoit and the fact that Liriano was in the pen for a while.

So the Jays bullpen have lost Cecil, Benoit, Liriano (who really helped them down the stretch) and have yet to add anything.

I know they will eventually add something to the pen, but waiting until July seems like an incredibly poor decision based on what has happened the past two years and the fact that there competition has likely gotten better.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I said they need another lefty... it's just that another decent lefty is all they need. What they don't need is to spend an orgy of money and all the top prospects for Chapman, Miller, and and a clone of prime Mariano Rivera.

Miller worked out pretty good for the Indians. He's the only reason the Jays didn't advance to the World Series.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

People said the pen would be just fine to start last year as well, and we all know how that went.

You are ignoring the departure of Benoit and the fact that Liriano was in the pen for a while.

So the Jays bullpen have lost Cecil, Benoit, Liriano (who really helped them down the stretch) and have yet to add anything.

I know they will eventually add something to the pen, but waiting until July seems like an incredibly poor decision based on what has happened the past two years and the fact that there competition has likely gotten better.

Benoit was injured for the entire playoffs. Played a big role down the stretch, but to Parallex's point, you can acquire that for pennies on the dollar mid-season. Liriano pitched a grand total of 2 innings of relief for the Jays last year.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Benoit was injured for the entire playoffs. Played a big role down the stretch, but to Parallex's point, you can acquire that for pennies on the dollar mid-season. Liriano pitched a grand total of 2 innings of relief for the Jays last year.

My point is that I don't think we can wait til mid-season to fix the problem this year given the improvements of the other teams contending for the division and wildcard spot.

I don't disagree that you can get bullpen help for next to nothing half way through the season, but it seems pretty stupid for a contending team with a pretty short timeline to roll the dices on something as important as the bullpen to save some money. Makes perfect sense if you aren't a contender to go that route. Doesn't make much sense if you are.

Hopefully they deal with ahead of spring training. It seems to be the only hole they have left. I'm fine going with a combination of Carerra/Upton/Pierce in LF. I'm betting they are also going to have Lourdes every opportunity possible to start the season in LF.

[cross16]

I think there are enough options out there from both a LH and RH option that I have zero doubt that the Jays will be adding to their pen. It wont' be a big time arm or a big money arm but I don't think that is needed anyway.

the Jays bullpen from July on was one of the best in baseball. So if they've lose a couple arms from that, they are still in very good shape. Jays lost the division because their bats went ice cold and they didn't have balance to their lineup. That to me was their biggest need and I think they are better in that area.

[Jason14h]

Benoit was injured for the entire playoffs. Played a big role down the stretch, but to Parallex's point, you can acquire that for pennies on the dollar mid-season. Liriano pitched a grand total of 2 innings of relief for the Jays last year.

The problem is we may already have dug a giant hole by mid-season.

Last year we needed to win a wildcard game with the following happening:

1. Sanchez going 15-2, Now I think he's terrific. But its almost impossible to improve on.
2. Happ going 20-4. Almost impossible to improve on.
3. All 5 starters staying healthy.
4. Finding Benoit who has a 0.38 ERA and Grilli at 3.64 (And a most were his 3 bad outings)
5. Finding a rule 5 reliever who could contribute lots of quality innings.
6. Brett Cecil, who although I think is def overpaid, has a team think he is valuable enough to pay 7.5 Mil a year, being our top lefty

So it's impossible in my mind the argue the existing pitchers we have on this roster can outproduce the pitchers last season (Maybe Liriano over Dickey picks up a few wins)

With baseball it's about playing the odds over the full season. What's most likely to happen next season:

1. Our top two pitchers have a 35-6 record (85 winning %) OR that they regress
2. Estrada continues to dominate and even improve on his changeup OR his back injury and age catch up to him
3. All 5 starters stay healthy or 1-2 get injured for extended periods of time.
4. We find 2 free bullpen guys who put up insane #'s for the rest of the season completely turning their seasons around OR we pick up castoffs who continue to be castoffs
5. Biagini takes the next step forward OR returns to being a rule 5 guy/regresses a bit
6. We replace Cecil with a cheaper option who put up the same numbers as Cecil OR we have an issue filling the spot.

Of course anything CAN happen. However, it is going to take a lot of luck and good things for this team to make the playoffs. The one place we can improve was the bullpen where we blew the 8th most games in MLB (22/65), almost all in the first half

And this is where I get annoyed. We are willing to spend $150 million, but not $20 million more to make the bullpen a strength with 2 more big arms and a lefty specialist. Instead we are playing the best case scenario game, where a lot needs to go right for this team to be in the playoffs.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

So the Jays bullpen have lost Cecil, Benoit, Liriano (who really helped them down the stretch) and have yet to add anything.

Maybe I missed it somehow, but I am pretty sure Liriano is still with the Jays for this season? Or are you suggesting he is going to be used as a starter in 2017?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by greyshep

Maybe I missed it somehow, but I am pretty sure Liriano is still with the Jays for this season? Or are you suggesting he is going to be used as a starter in 2017?

He will be used as a starter in 2017, or at least he should be. Starting 5 will be Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada, and Liriano.

I'd be quite disappointed if the Jays moved Liriano to the pen as I think he could win 13-14 games. That said, it's not out the realm of possibility that they could use him to a fill a LH bullpen spot as his salary is on the roster, and fill the 5th starting spot with someone else from within the system/roster or the waiver wire.

[Parallex]

Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
Morales
Pearce
Tulo
Martin
Upton/???
Pillar

Still a pretty fearsome batting order. Lotta thunder in those bats.

[Cappy]

Bullpen arms are so volatile. We should all know this by now.

Cecil, Storen, Biagini, Loup, Janssen, Accardo, Francisco, Benoit. All these guys have had atleast one good season with the Jays and one bad season (except for those not around long enough).

For a team with very real salary limitations, spending that money on bullpen arms is not the best way to maximize WAR.

TOR was middle of the pack for reliever WAR last season. 11th in 1st half, 18 in second.

FIP was similar - 15 and 19, respectively.

the stats say the pen was worse in the second half.

I think depth is the key. Add a lefty like Blevins or logan, take a few fliers and let it shake out. If a correction is needed, you can add at the deadline.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by greyshep

Maybe I missed it somehow, but I am pretty sure Liriano is still with the Jays for this season? Or are you suggesting he is going to be used as a starter in 2017?

He'll start. Takes Dickey's rotation spot.

[calgaryblood]

Man I love when athletes get greedy and it back fires. Hope you're happy with your $18 million Bautusta (which he should be) but had he actually wanted to negotiate last off season he'd likely have gotten at least $100 million guaranteed.

Jays dodged a bullet because of his greed.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

Man I love when athletes get greedy and it back fires. Hope you're happy with your $18 million Bautusta (which he should be) but had he actually wanted to negotiate last off season he'd likely have gotten at least $100 million guaranteed.

Jays dodged a bullet because of his greed.

I don't think he ever would have gotten $100 million. Most people flat out laughed at that. I bet he would have got $60M though. 3 years at 20M.

[calgaryblood]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I don't think he ever would have gotten $100 million. Most people flat out laughed at that. I bet he would have got $60M though. 3 years at 20M.

He demanded $150 million over 5 years. And he didn't want to negotiate at all. I don't think it's far fetched to believe the Jays would have done something like 5 years at $100 million or even 4 years at $25 million.

[transplant99]

ESPN Stats and Information



José Bautista agreed to a 1-year, $18 million free agent deal with the Blue Jays, the largest 1-year free agent deal for a position player in MLB history.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

And this is where I get annoyed. We are willing to spend $150 million, but not $20 million more to make the bullpen a strength with 2 more big arms and a lefty specialist. Instead we are playing the best case scenario game, where a lot needs to go right for this team to be in the playoffs.

Real easy to spend someone else's 20M isn't it?

[KootenayFlamesFan]

3:45pm: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that Bautista’s 2017 salary will be $18MM, but the buyout on the second-year option will tack another $500K to $1MM onto the overall guarantee (Twitter links). Bautista will have mutual option for the 2018 season and a vesting option for the 2019 season, according to Passan. The two sides are still finalizing the details surrounding the vesting option, he notes, but there’s a framework in place for the agreement.

2:35pm: Bautista receives an $18MM guarantee, per Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). The maximum value of the deal — with incentives and the consecutive mutual options — is $60MM.

The 2017 salary remains unknown, but buyouts on the option years help contribute to the total guarantee, Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes on Twitter.

1:53pm: The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Jose Bautista, according to reports from Baseball Prospectus Toronto (Twitter link) and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal that includes at least one mutual option, and could reportedly extend to three total seasons in duration. Bautista will receive a guarantee that exceeds the $17.2MM qualifying offer value, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), assuming he passes his physical.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/0...-bautista.html

[Jason14h]

Real easy to spend someone else's 20M isn't it?

I honestly don't even know what point you are trying to make.

The team makes a boatload of money. They run the team like a corporation because it subsidizes their terrible hockey investment. I'm not asking them to loose money.

Heck, if they spent extra this year and then next year dealt JD and said they need to rebuild and cut payroll, I'd be fine too. Just don't be in no mans land with respect to winning a championship.

I'm not allowed to be annoyed by that and wanting to see the only Canadian baseball team compete with the Sox and Yankees when they have the financial means too but decide to pocket the profit?

[JiriHrdina]

The Jays are owned by a publically traded company. That's why they are run like a corporation.