Ongoing - Elliott Friedman's 30 Thoughts (Wednesdays)

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Parallex

...What?

I tend to disagree with CaptainCrunch on just about everything... I say that so you understand what it means for me to say he's absolutely right. If July 1 passes and McDavid's agent doesn't get 30 offer sheets with total dollars exceeding $84M ($10.5M x 8) there should be 30 different angry mobs descending on 30 front offices with torches and pitchforks at the ready.

Here is the number that the Oilers need to exceed... 102.2M. That's NHL max salary x 7 because someone will (or at least should) offer it.

Considering most pundits think he will be signed by the end of July 2017 there will be zero offer sheets. Not to mention.. Are there any teams that can (and are willing) to add that sort of salary straight up?

I still think his AAV is between 10 and 12 on an 8 year deal. With an outside shot at 12.125 per which is 97 million/8 years because of the weird number thing we see in the NHL these days.

[Erick Estrada]

Yeah there is no way McDavid doesn't become the highest paid player in the NHL.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Leon will probably get a half million more then Monahan, just simply because this season will probably eclipse any of the point totals that Monhahan has had.

He's at 47 points now right, with about 30 games left.

If you think that they're going to get McDavid signed for a long term deal that eats into his UFA years for 10.5 I think your wrong. His valuation in terms of his value to the Oilers and his production and him literally carry that team puts him in a firm drivers seat. I'm not expecting him to get a Kane or Toews valuation, but that's going to probably be where his agent starts, and if the Oilers start at 10 then expect to meet in the middle at 12.

We're dealing with a generational player here, one who's probably going to add huge dollars to the Oilers and the NHL's bottom line, when you put that on one side of the balance sheet, and then on the other the whole, oh golly gee batman I'll take less to build the team, that doesn't mean that he's taking a million or two million less, it means that maybe he takes a couple of hundred thousand less. Also McDavid will be under tremendous pressure by the PA and his agent will be under pressure by the PA to be the poster boy of setting the next generation of contract values.


I've said in my post that Nurse will probably get 3 million, which we see a lot of third pairing defense men get, but I agree if he signs longer term its 4 million. 2 million isn't going to happen unless its a 1 year deal.


but you and I are quibbling over 1 or 2 million over what could be a 20+ million dollar jump in payroll.

I disagree with the PA pressure due to escrow, but thats another matter.

McDavid'd current cap hit is essentially 3.8 million as he will hit all his bonus's this and next year one would imagine. So any raise should really be counted from that.

In any case this will likely be decided in 6 or 7 months so we shall see then.

[TheIronMaiden]

McDavid will take no pay cuts without the Oilers making a deep run before his pay day. All NHL players are motivated by championships and money when it comes to new contracts. If they Oilers can't offer one they will have to offer the other.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I disagree with the PA pressure due to escrow, but thats another matter.

McDavid'd current cap hit is essentially 3.8 million as he will hit all his bonus's this and next year one would imagine. So any raise should really be counted from that.

Well..no.

Hes on his ELC and I believe his bonuses would count against next year's cap?

So his current hit is just ~$1M.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Locke

Well..no.

Hes on his ELC and I believe his bonuses would count against next year's cap?

So his current hit is just ~$1M.

Only if you are over the cap no?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Only if you are over the cap no?

No...because you dont know if he hits all of his bonuses until the season is over so they're applied to the next next season's cap.

I recall this happening to the Blackhawks because I think Toews and Kane were on their ELCs the first time they won the cup and it was a huge nightmare for the next season's cap.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Also McDavid will be under tremendous pressure by the PA and his agent will be under pressure by the PA to be the poster boy of setting the next generation of contract values.

And don't think that Gary Bettman wouldn't be salivating at the thought of getting Connor McDavid in a major U.S. market... New York or Los Angeles, heck even Vegas for the growth of the SW expansion strategy. Not saying that he'd push it, but maybe that he wouldn't push against it.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Locke

No...because you dont know if he hits all of his bonuses until the season is over so they're applied to the next next season's cap.

I recall this happening to the Blackhawks because I think Toews and Kane were on their ELCs the first time they won the cup and it was a huge nightmare for the next season's cap.

The Chicago Blackhawks will have a salary cap overage of $3.07 million on the books for the 2016-17 season, assistant GM Norm Maciver revealed to The Athletic's Scott Powers on Thursday. A salary cap overage occurs when a team's year-end bonuses put them above the upper limit of the cap

From a quick google cant find another source at this moment...

So if you don't have the spaces you get a penalty the following year.

[PlayfulGenius]

I can't imagine a scenario whereby Vegas does NOT offer MacDavid a MAX contract...they'll be scraping to meet the cap MIN, so the space shouldn't be an issue.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Considering most pundits think he will be signed by the end of July 2017 there will be zero offer sheets. Not to mention.. Are there any teams that can (and are willing) to add that sort of salary straight up?

Yes they will likely sign him as soon as they are able... because they will spend considerably more then 84M. The relevant fact isn't whether he get's any offer sheets it's whether he would get any and what they would be in the absence of an extension.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

I can't imagine a scenario whereby Vegas does NOT offer MacDavid a MAX contract...they'll be scraping to meet the cap MIN, so the space shouldn't be an issue.

He will be signed this summer so the won't have a chance. Similar to Ekblad.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Weitz

From a quick google cant find another source at this moment...

So if you don't have the spaces you get a penalty the following year.

Hmmm....but it seems to me thats like a retro-active payment that would offer an advantage to a non-competitive team with cap-space.

Might need more info on this. You may be right, but I was under the impression that bonuses were calculated at the end of season and applied to the following year's cap.

But its entirely possible that I am incorrect. The damned league changes the cap rules too often.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Surprised we haven't heard more/bigger rumours coming out of Edmonton. With low cap hits on Drasaitle and McDavid, a hot goaltender and a relatively good team this year they should be going for it IMO. Do they really care about or need a 1st round pick, this season or next? I know they're big on Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones but they're both 19 and could help them win now through trades.

Teams can still win when their stars have massive contracts but little surprised we haven't heard that they're all in as buyers.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

McDavid will take no pay cuts without the Oilers making a deep run before his pay day. All NHL players are motivated by championships and money when it comes to new contracts. If they Oilers can't offer one they will have to offer the other.

HA HA HA HA

And unicorns and Hogwarts are real.

It doesn't work that way, especially on long term deals. You might have a point if Conner hits 31 or 32 + and doesn't have a championship.

But trust me when I say, most players don't feel its their responsibility to get paid less to win a championship, they feel that its up to the owners and GM's to build the team and spend the money. Period.

Also lets look at Bobby Orr's client list, did Taylor Hall take less from the Oilers to build a winner? Nope, How about Plekanec? Hell no, Jeff Skinner? nope, how about Ekblad who just signed a 7.5 million dollar extension?

Bobby Orr is one of the more hadcore PA agents out there, he's in it for the good of his client and not for the good of the team.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Surprised we haven't heard more/bigger rumours coming out of Edmonton. With low cap hits on Drasaitle and McDavid, a hot goaltender and a relatively good team this year they should be going for it IMO. Do they really care about or need a 1st round pick, this season or next? I know they're big on Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones but they're both 19 and could help them win now through trades.

Teams can still win when their stars have massive contracts but little surprised we haven't heard that they're all in as buyers.

Didn't you know? First round picks are how you build teams. The Oilers aren't trading theirs away.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Surprised we haven't heard more/bigger rumours coming out of Edmonton. With low cap hits on Drasaitle and McDavid, a hot goaltender and a relatively good team this year they should be going for it IMO. Do they really care about or need a 1st round pick, this season or next? I know they're big on Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones but they're both 19 and could help them win now through trades.

Teams can still win when their stars have massive contracts but little surprised we haven't heard that they're all in as buyers.

Dude...putting the cart before the horse here...they are proud of what they've done.

Luckily, Pride Cometh Before the Fall.

They'll need that 1st rounder.

[calgaryblood]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

HA HA HA HA

And unicorns and Hogwarts are real.

It doesn't work that way, especially on long term deals. You might have a point if Conner hits 31 or 32 + and doesn't have a championship.

But trust me when I say, most players don't feel its their responsibility to get paid less to win a championship, they feel that its up to the owners and GM's to build the team and spend the money. Period.

Also lets look at Bobby Orr's client list, did Taylor Hall take less from the Oilers to build a winner? Nope, How about Plekanec? Hell no, Jeff Skinner? nope, how about Ekblad who just signed a 7.5 million dollar extension?

Bobby Orr is one of the more hadcore PA agents out there, he's in it for the good of his client and not for the good of the team.

Did you quote the wrong post?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Maybe they want to keep him so that maybe he becomes the player they believe he can be, just perhaps not at the age of 20?

The Flames really need Bennett to turn out. I think a lot of our success in the future depends on it. Selling him during a season in which he is struggling would be a very poor move from both an asset management and logic perspective.

Of course nobody would want to trade him when he's playing well, either.

Originally Posted by Lil Pedro

Yes let's trade a 20 year old centre right now; some people's expectations on guys are incredible. Dude hasn't even played 150 NHL games yet.

You can trade anybody if you think the return helps your team. And some highly drafted players have more value at 20 than at 22. Look at how the value of Brett Connolly, Griffin Reinhart, Ryan Murray, and Ryan Strome declined.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

HA HA HA HA

And unicorns and Hogwarts are real.

It doesn't work that way, especially on long term deals. You might have a point if Conner hits 31 or 32 + and doesn't have a championship.

But trust me when I say, most players don't feel its their responsibility to get paid less to win a championship, they feel that its up to the owners and GM's to build the team and spend the money. Period.

Also lets look at Bobby Orr's client list, did Taylor Hall take less from the Oilers to build a winner? Nope, How about Plekanec? Hell no, Jeff Skinner? nope, how about Ekblad who just signed a 7.5 million dollar extension?

Bobby Orr is one of the more hadcore PA agents out there, he's in it for the good of his client and not for the good of the team.

There is a lot of truth to what you say. I'm not going to sit here and say that all players and willing to take one for the team by getting paid less. I'm saying that the only incentive for a star player to get payed slightly less than market value is if ( and that's a big if) they want to stay on a championship calibre team.
I am arguing that outside of a rare case like that, no player is willing to get payed less.

Really what I meant was that there is almost no chance the Oilers prove they are a championship contender between now and pay day, so the Oilers and their fans better get used to hoping their prospects can play reliable hockey for cheap. Otherwise, they will be another team will a few great players and no depth.