04-15-2017, 12:43 PM
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#201
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
Actually, it is uncommon, so you're wrong.
The vast majority of players drafted out of US colleges play for the team that drafted them.
There are exceptions, but they are uncommon.
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It's all relative to the pedigree of the prospect. Lesser prospects have far less opportunities so for them it's makes sense to stick with the opportunity provided by the team that drafted them.
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04-15-2017, 12:43 PM
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#202
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
MarkGio using suspect logic again.
Leopold stayed all 4 years and we still signed him. But chicken littles gonna run around about the sky falling
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Lol. And using a 15 year old example is good logic? But let's talk logic. Tell me, just because something hasn't happened before, does that mean it won't happen in the future?
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04-15-2017, 12:45 PM
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#203
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
Lol. And using a 15 year old example is good logic? But let's talk logic. Tell me, just because something hasn't happened before, does that mean it won't happen in the future?
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OK, let's talk math. Tell me, how do you calculate the odds of something that has never happened, and say that it's probable?
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04-15-2017, 12:51 PM
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#204
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
It's all relative to the pedigree of the prospect. Lesser prospects have far less opportunities so for them it's makes sense to stick with the opportunity provided by the team that drafted them.
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from my understanding, most high caliber kids sign one or two years out of college because their draft teams make them a high priority and want them to develop under their system/organization...the NCAA provides lists of college UFAs at the end of the season every year IIRC... and when there was some concern about Johnny, i recall looking and not being very impressed with that list at all
its the late bloomers, late round picks that tend to spend all fours in college and even then, i'd bet that those that wait all four years sign with their draft team over 50% of the time...
too lazy to do the research myself... but i am sure someone will look into it!
EDIT: here's a list of guys that became college free agents....
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/l...gent-signings/
probably not a comprehensive list, however, its not exactly a murderers row of difference makers... Vesey, Hayes and Shultz are all excellent players ... Bozak, Krug and DeKeyser were not drafted and were late bloomers.
not saying Hickey won't go to Free Agency, but it doesn't seem like a lot of players on that list either
Last edited by oldschoolcalgary; 04-15-2017 at 01:09 PM.
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04-15-2017, 12:56 PM
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#205
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
OK, let's talk math. Tell me, how do you calculate the odds of something that has never happened, and say that it's probable?
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Firstly, you cannot assume the Flames or Hickey specifically are immune to a given event without evidence of which. To calculate Hickey's odds, it's roughly the same odds as any 4th year NCAAer who's highly toughted, given that only the highly touted ones receive value in the free agency route. Except you would have to place weight on those who were subjected to a congested line up within their own drafted franchise
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04-15-2017, 12:59 PM
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#206
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Show me a defenseman who was drafted by the Flames and is now finding success with another team after having been passed over and lost by this organisation. Again, one of the reasons for the low number of defensemen to have made an impact from their draft pool has a lot to do with where they are picking them at the draft.
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The lack of depth on the back end has cost the team this year IMO. So unless we're going down the path of Flames management can do no wrong, are you suggesting Flames need to spend more 1st round picks on defensemen?
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04-15-2017, 01:12 PM
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#207
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
Firstly, you cannot assume the Flames or Hickey specifically are immune to a given event without evidence of which. To calculate Hickey's odds, it's roughly the same odds as any 4th year NCAAer who's highly toughted, given that only the highly touted ones receive value in the free agency route. Except you would have to place weight on those who were subjected to a congested line up within their own drafted franchise
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This has nothing to do with the post I responded to. You're the one who, while conceding that something has not happened before, nevertheless claim that it is highly probable. Go ahead, bright guy, calculate the probabilities for us. It's not my job to do so, as I am not the one who claimed to know them.
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04-15-2017, 01:13 PM
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#208
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Lifetime Suspension
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If needed can the Flame trade him?
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04-15-2017, 01:21 PM
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#209
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Par
If needed can the Flame trade him?
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i think you can... similar to trading the rights to an impending UFA i would imagine...
hard to believe you'd get that much however... maybe a 3rd if you're lucky?
that's not to say Hickey isn't a good player, but the team trading for the rights also aren't guaranteed to sign him either... maybe a conditional tag provides some flexibility.
Undoubtedly Calgary will talk to him to get a sense of whether he wants to play here...
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04-15-2017, 01:34 PM
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#210
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
That's a bad measurement. To measure a teams ability to draft and develop NHL defenseman should look at percentage of successes per draft or per periods of time (ie 5 years). By the time the Flames already failed at both drafting and development, a different team would have to be bloody exceptional in those areas to fix a reclamation project.
You're trying to compare repairing old products to manufacturing new ones.
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In the past five years, here is the total number of defensemen drafted after the top-forty to have played in at least 20 NHL games:
· Marcus Nutivaara (2015), 66 GP with the Columbus Blue Jackets
· Brandon Montour (2014), 27 GP with the Anaheim Ducks
· Nikita Tryamkin (2014), 79 GP with the Vancouver Canucks
· Steven Santini (2013), 39 GP with the NJ Devils
· Brett Pesce (2013), 151 GP with the Carolina Hurricanes
· Jake McCabe (2012), 162 GP with the Buffalo Sabres
· Damon Severson (2012), 203 GP with the NJ Devils
· Adam Pelech (2012), 53 GP with the NY Islanders
· Shayne Gostisbehere (2012), 142 GP with the Philadelphia Flyers
· Colton Parayko (2012), 160 GP with the St Louis Blues
· Erik Gustafsson (2012), drafted by the Edmonton Oilers, but 41 GP with the Chicago Blackhawks
· Brett Kulak (2012), 30 GP with the Calgary Flames
· Jakob Slavin (2012), 145 GP with the Carolina Hurricanes
· Connor Carrick (2012), drafted by the Washington Capitals, but 120 GP with the Toronto Maple Leafs
· Ben Hutton (2012), 146 GP with the Vancouver Canucks
· Colin Miller (2012), drafted by the LA Kings, but 103 GP with the Boston Bruins
· Jake Dotchin (2012), 35 GP with the TB Lightning
· Matthew Benning (2012), drafted by the Boston Bruins, but 62 GP with the Edmonton Oilers
· Petteri Lindbohm (2012), 40 GP with the St Louis Blues
· Paul Ladue (2012), 22 GP with the LA Kings
· Joel Edmundson (2011), 136 GP with the St Louis Blues
· Xavier Ouellet (2011), 96 GP with the Detroit Red Wings
· Scott Harrington (2011), drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, but 47 GP between the Penguins, Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets
· Ryan Sproul (2011), 27 GP with the Detroit Red Wings
· Tyler Wotherspoon (2011), 30 GP with the Calgary Flames
· Klas Dahlback (2011), drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks, but 137 GP between the Blackhawks, Coyotes, and Hurricanes
· Mike Reilly (2011), drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets, but 46 GP with the Minnesota Wild
· Fredrick Claesson (2011), 49 GP with the Ottawa Senators
· Nikita Nesterov (2011), drafted by the TB Lightning, but 132 GP between the Lightning and Maple Leafs
· Frankie Corrado (2011), drafted by the Vancouver Canucks, but 75 GP between the Canucks, Maple Leafs, and Penguins
· Josh Manson (2011), 181 GP with the Anaheim Ducks
· Dylan DeMelo (2011), 70 GP with the SJ Sharks
· Jyrki Jokipakka (2011), drafted by the Dallas Stars, but 150 GP between the Stars, Flames and Senators
· Alexey Marchenko (2011), drafted by the Detroit Red Wings, but 121 GP between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs
That is 34 players, and most of them are players that you have never heard of, nor are likely to remember after today. Of those 34 players, the Flames have drafted two, which is one more player than drafted by 21 other NHL teams. From where I sit the Flames have been average to slightly better than average in their attempts to draft defensemen outside of the first round, and it bears repeating:
A major factor in the low number of defensemen to have made an impact with the Flames is that they have drafted NONE in the first round since Tim Erixon in 2009.
The fact of the matter is that players outside of the top 30–40 don't tend to make a big impact in the NHL on a regular basis, and because the Flames have been picking all their defensemen outside of the top end of the draft, their results have reflected this reality. I don't believe this to be an issue with Calgary's development; it is just the way the draft has played out for them the past few years.
Last edited by Textcritic; 04-15-2017 at 01:47 PM.
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04-15-2017, 01:35 PM
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#211
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Celebrated Square Root Day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Par
If needed can the Flame trade him?
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Why would another team trade for a player that's going to play out his college career and then pick a team?
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04-15-2017, 01:39 PM
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#212
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin
Why would another team trade for a player that's going to play out his college career and then pick a team?
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Quote:
2016-06-20 Predators • 2016 third round pick (#76-Rem Pitlick) • rights to Jimmy Vesey trade with Sabres
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This is AFTER the kid made it clear he was going to test free agency by waiting until August to sign. Hickey hasn't said that he will test UFA, and we are a full 14 months ahead of the timeline of the above trade.
Not saying we should or shouldn't trade Hickey's rights, just saying...
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04-15-2017, 01:41 PM
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#213
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
The lack of depth on the back end has cost the team this year IMO. So unless we're going down the path of Flames management can do no wrong, are you suggesting Flames need to spend more 1st round picks on defensemen?
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Yes,. That is exactly what I am suggesting. Although I do not believe the Flames can be faulted for many of their recent first round selections, moving forward they absolutely need to draft a few more defensemen with their highest picks.
As for lacking depth that has cost them this year, that is also true, but it is also a product of being a relatively young team with some poor value contracts on the roster. If we are still having this conversation in two or three years' time, then I would concede that the organisation has done a poor job in this regard. We are not there yet.
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04-15-2017, 01:41 PM
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#214
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Par
If needed can the Flame trade him?
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Yeah. Nashville traded Jimmy Vesey to Buffalo.
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04-15-2017, 01:41 PM
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#215
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin
Why would another team trade for a player that's going to play out his college career and then pick a team?
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The same reason any team would trade for the rights to a pending UFA: They think they can convince him to sign before he hits free agency and believe the value of that exclusive negotiating time is worth more than what they're trading away.
Buffalo traded a third round pick for Jimmy Vesey last year even after he told Nashville he was going to wait until August to become a UFA.
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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04-15-2017, 01:47 PM
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#216
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
Lol. And using a 15 year old example is good logic? But let's talk logic. Tell me, just because something hasn't happened before, does that mean it won't happen in the future?
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No the poor logic you were employing was to deduce that Andersson isn't in their plans because they play Bartkowski over him.
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04-15-2017, 01:49 PM
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#217
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger
Can someone let me know if I should panic? I feel like now would be a good time to start. I'm already nervous about the Flames game. May as well double down on the panic levels.
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If he isn't signed within a month of graduating then I think we should start worrying.
Worrying before then is paranoia IMO
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04-15-2017, 01:51 PM
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#218
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Lifetime Suspension
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Congratulations to Hickey. A real feather in his cap to captain such a storied College hockey club.
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04-15-2017, 02:12 PM
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#219
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
In the past five years, here is the total number of defensemen drafted after the top-forty to have played in at least 20 NHL games:
· Marcus Nutivaara (2015), 66 GP with the Columbus Blue Jackets
· Brandon Montour (2014), 27 GP with the Anaheim Ducks
· Nikita Tryamkin (2014), 79 GP with the Vancouver Canucks
· Steven Santini (2013), 39 GP with the NJ Devils
· Brett Pesce (2013), 151 GP with the Carolina Hurricanes
· Jake McCabe (2012), 162 GP with the Buffalo Sabres
· Damon Severson (2012), 203 GP with the NJ Devils
· Adam Pelech (2012), 53 GP with the NY Islanders
· Shayne Gostisbehere (2012), 142 GP with the Philadelphia Flyers
· Colton Parayko (2012), 160 GP with the St Louis Blues
· Erik Gustafsson (2012), drafted by the Edmonton Oilers, but 41 GP with the Chicago Blackhawks
· Brett Kulak (2012), 30 GP with the Calgary Flames
· Jakob Slavin (2012), 145 GP with the Carolina Hurricanes
· Connor Carrick (2012), drafted by the Washington Capitals, but 120 GP with the Toronto Maple Leafs
· Ben Hutton (2012), 146 GP with the Vancouver Canucks
· Colin Miller (2012), drafted by the LA Kings, but 103 GP with the Boston Bruins
· Jake Dotchin (2012), 35 GP with the TB Lightning
· Matthew Benning (2012), drafted by the Boston Bruins, but 62 GP with the Edmonton Oilers
· Petteri Lindbohm (2012), 40 GP with the St Louis Blues
· Paul Ladue (2012), 22 GP with the LA Kings
· Joel Edmundson (2011), 136 GP with the St Louis Blues
· Xavier Ouellet (2011), 96 GP with the Detroit Red Wings
· Scott Harrington (2011), drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, but 47 GP between the Penguins, Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets
· Ryan Sproul (2011), 27 GP with the Detroit Red Wings
· Tyler Wotherspoon (2011), 30 GP with the Calgary Flames
· Klas Dahlback (2011), drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks, but 137 GP between the Blackhawks, Coyotes, and Hurricanes
· Mike Reilly (2011), drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets, but 46 GP with the Minnesota Wild
· Fredrick Claesson (2011), 49 GP with the Ottawa Senators
· Nikita Nesterov (2011), drafted by the TB Lightning, but 132 GP between the Lightning and Maple Leafs
· Frankie Corrado (2011), drafted by the Vancouver Canucks, but 75 GP between the Canucks, Maple Leafs, and Penguins
· Josh Manson (2011), 181 GP with the Anaheim Ducks
· Dylan DeMelo (2011), 70 GP with the SJ Sharks
· Jyrki Jokipakka (2011), drafted by the Dallas Stars, but 150 GP between the Stars, Flames and Senators
· Alexey Marchenko (2011), drafted by the Detroit Red Wings, but 121 GP between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs
That is 34 players, and most of them are players that you have never heard of, nor are likely to remember after today. Of those 34 players, the Flames have drafted two, which is one more player than drafted by 21 other NHL teams. From where I sit the Flames have been average to slightly better than average in their attempts to draft defensemen outside of the first round, and it bears repeating:
A major factor in the low number of defensemen to have made an impact with the Flames is that they have drafted NONE in the first round since Tim Erixon in 2009.
The fact of the matter is that players outside of the top 30–40 don't tend to make a big impact in the NHL on a regular basis, and because the Flames have been picking all their defensemen outside of the top end of the draft, their results have reflected this reality. I don't believe this to be an issue with Calgary's development; it is just the way the draft has played out for them the past few years.
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Past 5 years is not a good sample. What defenseman drafted last year in the 7th round is going to play NHL games already? If most defensive prospects follow the path of 1-2 years amateur --> 1-2 years pro --> NHL regular, then players drafted 5 years ago will just start to see NHL minutes, especially when drafted in later rounds.
I mean look at your list. It's mostly 2011 and 2012 picks. But I would agree that regardless of defensemen, statically you're more likely to yeild NHL regulars with your earlier selections.
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04-15-2017, 02:26 PM
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#220
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
Past 5 years is not a good sample.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
That's a bad measurement. To measure a teams [sic.] ability to draft and develop NHL defenseman [sic.] should look at percentage of successes per draft or per periods of time (ie 5 years). By the time the Flames already failed at both drafting and development, a different team would have to be bloody exceptional in those areas to fix a reclamation project.
You're trying to compare repairing old products to manufacturing new ones.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
What defenseman drafted last year in the 7th round is going to play NHL games already? If most defensive prospects follow the path of 1-2 years amateur --> 1-2 years pro --> NHL regular, then players drafted 5 years ago will just start to see NHL minutes, especially when drafted in later rounds.
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Well, yeah. That is kind of the point, which is actually a very strong refutation of this nonsense:
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
[The Flames are n]ot as high on [Andersson] as Bartowski, otherwise Andersson would've played some more games
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
I mean look at your list. It's mostly 2011 and 2012 picks. But I would agree that regardless of defensemen, statically you're more likely to yeild NHL regulars with your earlier selections.
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So, why would you then go and claim that the Flames have not given their drafted young defensemen legitimate opportunities to play in the NHL?
You are essentially arguing against yourself at this point.
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