[Rumour] Lebrun: Prices down for rental players? - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

sureLoss · 02-09-2016, 02:09 PM

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14...trade-deadline

Quote:

A year ago, rental players such as Antoine Vermette and Andrej Sekera netted first-round picks to their respective selling teams, while a pile of other pending unrestricted free agents went for second-round picks.

The question this year is whether the rental market has gone down a notch, as is the prevailing wisdom three weeks away from the Feb. 29 trade deadline.

"There's no chance you're seeing first-round picks go out for rental players this year," one Western Conference hockey executive said Tuesday. "Those days are over."

Well, we've heard that before, so maybe it's just wishful thinking from the buyers.

Quote:

With the bigger stars taking up so much salary cap space, the middle class is getting squeezed and teams need cheap, young players in the entry-level class more than ever to round out their rosters. And teams need the pipeline to keep producing young players.

So suddenly those second-round draft picks getting thrown around like candy over the past decade near the trade deadline might not move as much.

"Those might be third-round picks now," one Eastern Conference executive said. "You look at Toronto and all the UFAs they want to sell. They'll still sell a lot of them, but not for the kind of picks they could have got two years ago."

codynw · 02-09-2016, 02:20 PM

Bummer. Hopefully there's still at least one GM dumb enough to trade a good pick for Hudler and/or Russell.

Looch City · 02-09-2016, 02:24 PM

Damn, price of oil affects everything.

IgiTang · 02-09-2016, 02:28 PM

We'll see... I dont believe it. GM's get cup crazy. Also, teams dont want other teams loading up so they may get in on a player to make sure the other team doesnt get them.

So many unknowns that to say with any certainty that it wont happen is just silly. I know Lebrun isnt saying this IS how it is, but until we see a trend over a couple years, this is merely a shot in the dark.

Badgers Nose · 02-09-2016, 02:28 PM

Sounds like the NHLPA needs expansion soon to protect all those high paying jobs.

Coach · 02-09-2016, 02:30 PM

GoJetsGo · 02-09-2016, 02:56 PM

Thanks Obama / Nenshi

Enoch Root · 02-09-2016, 02:59 PM

Guy writes an article, in all likelihood as a favour to a GM who is a buyer this year, stating that prices might be down - based on nothing - and people want to take it like some sort of fact.

Amazing.

RT14 · 02-09-2016, 03:05 PM

"Those days are over."

Seems like a bit of an extreme statement to make considering they just pointed out two cases 1sts being moved for rentals just one year ago. It may not happen this year due to each teams circumstances but I find it hard to believe it will never happen again. Markets change year by year.

Coach · 02-09-2016, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Guy writes an article, in all likelihood as a favour to a GM who is a buyer this year, stating that prices might be down - based on nothing - and people want to take it like some sort of fact.

Amazing.

They are down and will be down. Because GMs are realizing that with a cap, you absolutely need quality picks to maintain a good team for any length of time, and that rental players rarely actually impact a Stanley Cup contender.... 10 years later.

bubbsy · 02-09-2016, 03:12 PM

it's an arms race. Just takes a few dominos for the market to become more fluid. All it takes is a team like the lightening who may choose to go all in this year, with some big time question marks coming in the offseason, and grab a big gun like a staal, laad, etc.

You'd have to think a team poised to make some noise like the caps would be willing to part with non-roster assets to bolster their line up if needed.

Depth dmen with certain traits that a guy like russel brings i think are worth a 2nd round pick for a team that's going to be picking late in the round anyways.

i think it's easy to say nobody wants to trade 1st/2nd round picks anymore, but until the first few dominos fall, i think it's difficult to say what the market will be like.

MrMastodonFarm · 02-09-2016, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattyC

They are down and will be down..

Citation needed!

Seen several people claim this, but I'd love some analysis to back it up. Draft picks swapped at the deadline before we had a cap, draft picks swapped after etc. Quality of those picks, 1st, 2nd, 3rds etc.

Coach · 02-09-2016, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Citation needed!

Seen several people claim this, but I'd love some analysis to back it up. Draft picks swapped at the deadline before we had a cap, draft picks swapped after etc. Quality of those picks, 1st, 2nd, 3rds etc.

My personal point is that GMs are finally adapting to the new economy of the NHL. It's the same reason that most UFAs won't get their ludicrous paydays. Some will, elite players hitting the market will always get paid big (Stamkos), but those mid-range guys aren't going to be getting their big pay days like before (Glencross vs Clarkson). And even paying a guy like Stamkos max term/$$ will likely handicap TO for years, as most people speculate.

For example, I would imagine Chevy tested the trade market for Buff and didn't like what was offered so he figured holding onto him is best. That's for one of the top scoring Dmen in the league. Of course, this is just speculation, but economic speculation is a keen interest of mine hehe.

Kavvy · 02-09-2016, 03:19 PM

As long as any players we trade as a rental gets us more then we got for mike cammalleri I might be happy.

CliffFletcher · 02-09-2016, 03:29 PM

I agree that the true, long-term ramifications of the cap are now manifesting in the NHL. Each team will have: a core of key players getting big bucks signed long term; a handful of veterans earning mid-range salaries; the bulk of the roster young players or journeymen on entry-level contracts. The Hawks have 6 roster players earning over $5 mil, and 9 earning under $1 mil. Having a steady influx of young players on entry-level contracts who can really contribute is essential for long-term success. Really good players rarely reach free agency. That means this has become a draft and develop league where draft picks are your lifeblood.

JJ1532 · 02-09-2016, 03:48 PM

All it takes is for one dumb GM to overpay for a rental and boom, the market is set and the prices remain high. I mean, say we managed to find someone to trade a 2nd for Hudler, then all the other rentals would go for similar or higher prices.

Even if the market is low, I'd still rather take what we can for Hudler. With Russell, if the Flames are that keen on re-signing him, so be it. But it has to be for the same(or lower) cap hit than he's on now. Any higher is overpaying for a guy that is a bottom pairing defencemen. He simply isn't good enough to play in the top 4, bar as injury cover. If we re-sign him to an overpaid deal and put him in the top 4 again next season, I'll be very annoyed. Hopefully someone sees value in him and takes him off our hands(looking at you Edmonton!)

Trailer Fire · 02-09-2016, 03:53 PM

I think the new lottery system has a lot to do with it. Bubble teams were willing to part with their mid round 1sts to land a player that might push them into the playoffs. Those teams now stand a pretty decent chance of drafting in the top 3.

Lanny_McDonald · 02-09-2016, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I agree that the true, long-term ramifications of the cap are now manifesting in the NHL. Each team will have: a core of key players getting big bucks signed long term; a handful of veterans earning mid-range salaries; the bulk of the roster young players or journeymen on entry-level contracts. The Hawks have 6 roster players earning over $5 mil, and 9 earning under $1 mil. Having a steady influx of young players on entry-level contracts who can really contribute is essential for long-term success. Really good players rarely reach free agency. That means this has become a draft and develop league where draft picks are your lifeblood.

I get what oh are saying, but first rounders can be a cap killer too. Performance bonuses of first rounders can screw a team and put them in cap hell. If McDavid hits his bonuses the Oilers are over the cap next year. Young players are the lifeblood of the hockey team, but you have to hope that it is not your first rounders who achieve greatly. You have to hope that it's your later packs that have lower salaries, and lower bonuses, that achieve the greatest success.

On the article, I don't really agree with the sentiment. I think we will see prices increase as more teams find out where the stand towards the deadline. Teams will begin to spend once they are much more confident if they have a series chance of going deep in the playoffs.

JayP · 02-09-2016, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RT14

"Those days are over."

Seems like a bit of an extreme statement to make considering they just pointed out two cases 1sts being moved for rentals just one year ago. It may not happen this year due to each teams circumstances but I find it hard to believe it will never happen again. Markets change year by year.

It's a factor of which teams are in the playoff mix and how secure is the job of their GM. Yes, the league is becoming a draft and development league. However, if you're a GM who might not be around in 3-4 seasons to see the benefit of the draft picks this coming summer that's of little concern to you.

The market at the trade deadline is all dependent on how many desperate GMs are out there to save their jobs. Look at Bryan Murray and the Phaneuf deal - do you think he cares about how bad that Phaneuf contract might play out in 2019 or 2020? He's just looking to get a player that can help him go on a run and keep his job. It might make things more difficult in the future, but it's all about surviving the present. There's always going to be the Capitals of the league that have a legit Cup contender and are looking to patch any holes at the deadline. It's just a matter of how willing those bubble teams are to buy just to get in the dance that sets the market.

Resolute 14 · 02-09-2016, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Citation needed!

Seen several people claim this, but I'd love some analysis to back it up. Draft picks swapped at the deadline before we had a cap, draft picks swapped after etc. Quality of those picks, 1st, 2nd, 3rds etc.

It is definitely a perception, and one I held too, but I just took a look at the last two deadlines, and more first, second and third round picks went in the final week before the trading deadline in 2015 than in 2014. Pulling from 2006 (semi-randomly as the first post-cap deadline), there were actually far more picks moved the last two years than that season.