American Politics Thread: Orange is the new POTUS (Archive)

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

People keep saying this and I disagree with it. Russia has been going through a major military modernization program while at the same time moving to a more professional military.

From a sub perspective they are putting the Borei class missile submarine to sea and it represents a generational leap forward in terms of its ability to hide from American submarine forces and sensors. At the same time they're about half way through a major upgrade to their strategic rocket forces. They're midway through an upgrade of their TU-160 Blackjack forces and they're probably going to start producing them again so that they can upgrade their naval aviation wings.

With the blackjacks the re-opening of the production lines probably means that they are having some trouble with the PAK next generation bombers, but still using the Blackjacks to replace their aging bomber force is a significant step forward.

The Russians also have a goal of modernizing up to 70% of their conventional military ground forces by 2020, with the upgrading of their tanks, artillery, personal kit and armored vehicles.

russia has shown some very good capabilities lately with the upgraded sea launched cruise missiles, they're also working on their capability in terms of land and airbased nuclear and non nuclear cruise missiles.

As well they're becoming special forces enamored and are spending lavishly on their special forces units.

Russia also learned a lot of key lessons in the last decade about failures in their command and control, intelligence gathering and organization of units. They also realized that their methods of training their conscripts doesn't really create great or professional soldiers, and because of budget woes, they might shrink their army and spend more lavishly on a smaller group.

At the end of the day, in terms of subs and aircraft and primary tanks, armored vehicles and artillery they've closed but still trail the West, but that gap is a lot smaller. I do believe that if they were to fight NATO in a large scale war that they would probably lose. But the Russian's if they fight are going to fight in small scale battles and overwhelm NATO and depend on a improved logistics line.

Russia believes that the proper strategy is to nibble instead of eating it all at once.

We also have to look at the fact that if America leaves NATO or pulls back in terms of responsibility to NATO, that the rest of the NATO militarizes aren't in exactly great shape or even good shape.

I bow to your superior knowledge, but even with the upgrades and improvements, they do not have the economic or demographic strength to do much more than enforce their borders.

So how far can they nibble?

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't think we need some natural disaster to trigger it, I think it will be an economy miscalculation that will lite the fuse to a massive global crash.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

I just want to touch on this for a second. Putin is bad, really bad, but I do not get this fear that they are a superpower on the rise again, or that they have designs on Western Europe.

The country is a broken slag heap, and most of their armed forces are rusted out. This is not the USSR circa-1971.

I think this actually makes them far more dangerous

[Itse]

Originally Posted by New Era

I don't see how this is a negotiation failure. It's a failure to get to the table, not a failure in negotiation. Plus, Trump has said there is no negotiation here, Mexico will pay for the wall. Period. Trump is an idiot, but this wasn't a good attack on him.

This is a negotiation on whether or not Mexico pays for the wall. If Mexico does not pay for the wall, Mexico wins. In other words, if there's no negotiations, Mexico wins by default. That's why Trump is losing and Nieto is winning.

Btw, I think this could be a much bigger deal than people realize. It's the first fight Trump is in, and more significantly he picked it himself. There's a lot of speculation that Trump might be all talk and no bite, but nobody really knows if that's the case. One big reason why his words have so far had so much impact is because they're given the significance a POTUS usually gets.

If it turns out Trump is a weak and incompetent leader, a lot of countries are going to start looking for better deals and wanting to get out of deals they were forced into by previous administrations. Add that to the situation where domestic leaders and groups are itching for a fight, and the Trump administration could quickly get swamped with more trouble than they have time to deal with.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Trump is gonna cause a global depression if he insists on starting a trade war with every country that slights him. So that is likely the kind of event needed.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by peter12

I bow to your superior knowledge, but even with the upgrades and improvements, they do not have the economic or demographic strength to do much more than enforce their borders.

So how far can they nibble?

Right now, if the Russian's wanted to keep clipping away at Eastern Border NATO countries.

If the American's stepped away from NATO I would much rather be the Russian Commander then the NATO Commander on the ground.

Even if America gets involved. I would certainly like my correlation of forces, a fairly solid supply line and mass air coverage.

The fact is that NATO readiness has badly declined over the year as Nations has spent less and less on their military's

If the russian's clipped off a portion of some NATO country they could probably fortify it pretty hard faster then NATO could get the required forces in the field and activate their headquarters. At the same time, Russia has really focused on what they call a low yield nuclear scalpel strategy. Which basically means that Russia will say we have this area, we might be willing to neogitate some of it back, however if you attack Russian soil we will respond up to and including tactical nuclear weapons.

[photon]

Been out for a while with a bad case of vertigo so haven't been able to read the thread or news much (thank god for podcasts) but between photoshopped hand and infowars supposedly getting White House press credentials I can see straight enough to post an OMG!!!

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm sure that these people including the POTUS believe that they will be able to pick their spots conflict wise and basically be able to extract bigger concessions to intervene.

I believe that they think that allowing the Russian's and Chinese to step into any power vacuum created by US abandonment will make nations come rushing back into American arms with significant economic benefits for the States.

I think you're giving them a lot more credit for planning than they deserve.

There's probably no real longterm plan or strategy. They're exactly the buffoons they look like.

[Swift]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Yes indeed.

https://twitter.com/joabaldwin/statu...51188550787072

Debunked here - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.092c76f181fa

Why are we all wasting our time on stupid ####?

[jammies]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If the American's stepped away from NATO I would much rather be the Russian Commander then the NATO Commander on the ground.

This reminds me of the first Gulf War when there was hysteria over Iraq's "world's fourth biggest army" and "hordes of tanks" and "modern anti-air defences in depth and quantity". Then the actual battles ended up being laughable walkovers.

Russian "technology" is uneven and mostly second-rate, their economy is only around the same size as Canada's, and they have but140 million people - which sounds like a lot, but that's only the population of Germany and France combined. They can project power locally into minnow nations like Estonia or Georgia, or overawe clownshows like Ukraine, but they are no threat to the main parts of Europe. You need to get out of the Cold War and stop worrying about the Russians, they lost that war and Putin's posturing and chest-thumping won't make them a superpower again.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by jammies

This reminds me of the first Gulf War when there was hysteria over Iraq's "world's fourth biggest army" and "hordes of tanks" and "modern anti-air defences in depth and quantity". Then the actual battles ended up being laughable walkovers.

Russian "technology" is uneven and mostly second-rate, their economy is only around the same size as Canada's, and they have but140 million people - which sounds like a lot, but that's only the population of Germany and France combined. They can project power locally into minnow nations like Estonia or Georgia, or overawe clownshows like Ukraine, but they are no threat to the main parts of Europe. You need to get out of the Cold War and stop worrying about the Russians, they lost that war and Putin's posturing and chest-thumping won't make them a superpower again.

If it wasn't for their 7,300 nuclear warheads I'd completely agree.

[ernie]

When you are saying things that are basically "they can only really take over these certain countries with their old pathetic military" I'd call that an issue. Luckily countries people care about are safe from Russia. Sorry about those former soviet states. You get to fend for yourselves.

And they are still a superpower. Why? because the superpowers are concerned with them and what could happen if they gain legitimacy from a an incompetent administration in the states. And the reason why people care is right above this post. They have a bunch of nuclear weapons of all shapes and sizes.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by peter12

I imagine pretty much nothing significant. It would be good to have a more open relationship with the Russians compared to what we have now.

This is very Trumpian and completely misses the point. I'm sure it would've been good for superman to have a better relationship with Lex Luthor too, but that's not the point. When one country is threatening to destabilize regions and actively looking to diminish your power, being chums becomes second

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

This is very Trumpian and completely misses the point. I'm sure it would've been good for superman to have a better relationship with Lex Luthor too, but that's not the point. When one country is threatening to destabilize regions and actively looking to diminish your power, being chums becomes second

So, this is exactly the position that the Russians would take on NATO hegemony in Eastern Europe, and the West's policy in Syria, and Middle East writ large.

Russia's beligerene is not accidental, and I think that it is a mistake to treat them as an amorphous super villian.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by peter12

So, this is exactly the position that the Russians would take on NATO hegemony in Eastern Europe, and the West's policy in Syria, and Middle East writ large.

Russia's beligerene is not accidental, and I think that it is a mistake to treat them as an amorphous super villian.

I think it's a mistake to call them your buddy and placate them. It's also a mistake to call Putin a great leader

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by peter12

So, this is exactly the position that the Russians would take on NATO hegemony in Eastern Europe, and the West's policy in Syria, and Middle East writ large.

Russia's beligerene is not accidental, and I think that it is a mistake to treat them as an amorphous super villian.

Oh my gawdy.. you again. Yeah the second biggest nuclear power in the world.. the people with the Tsar Bomba. No big deal. At least they're not a threat to Christianity as much as those 'other' countries are.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If it wasn't for their 7,300 nuclear warheads I'd completely agree.

And they don't give a crap about the modern conventions of war.

The West is still kept somewhat honest by the media and expectations of the people. Russians don't care about anything that isn't Russian and everyone else (except maybe Serbs and Belorussians) can die in a fire for all they care.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

Debunked here - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.092c76f181fa

Why are we all wasting our time on stupid ####?

At least this can provide a good object lesson on the problem with bull#### of this sort, whether it's some idiot on Twitter who starts it or the President himself.

If someone makes a false claim, based on nothing whatsoever, it takes almost no effort for that claim to cause reputational damage. But it takes an incredible amount of effort - as reflected in that WaPo article - to debunk even the absolute stupidest of lies. Look at how detailed the explanation is there. Now realize that there are a lot of people who are so married to their ideology that they need that kind of meticulous de-bunking, because unless they're forced to accept it, they won't.

Moreover, what percentage of people who saw, accepted and even re-shared the original tweet or its content will actually notice the debunking of said tweet? Almost none. It's far too easy to do this sort of thing and almost impossible to combat. Post-truth politics is unfortunately super effective.

[CaptainCrunch]

From the other side of the floor

http://www.mediaite.com/online/white...-to-interrupt/

“My job is to listen and be a voice and shut other white people down when they want to interrupt,” she exclaimed. “My job is to shut other white people down when they want to say, ‘Oh, no, I’m not prejudiced. I’m a Democrat. I’m accepting.'”

A look at how maybe the press let Hillary stay in the bubble of isolation during her campaign.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...hillary-was-h/

Where I think political correctness got in the way of what we all knew as reporters and didn’t fully deliver was how hated the Clintons were in the heartland,” the “Meet the Press” host admitted Thursday to former Bush White House press secretary Ari Fleischer in a interview for the “1947” podcast.“And I think it was a fear of, ‘Oh, is it going to look like it’s sexist, anti-woman if we say that?’” he added, pointing out that on the hustings he saw numerous “Hillary for Prison” signs adorning the front yards of rural America.

[Drak]

Russia just put forward a bill lightening up on domestic abuse. All part of the new world order to make the world great again.

Domestic violence offences that did not cause actual bodily harm would be downgraded to a misdemeanour, punishable with a fine. Repeat offences — more than one violent incident a year — would be upgraded to a criminal offence...

The bill was spearheaded by ultra-conservative lawmaker Yelena Mizulina in July 2016.

“Battery carried out toward family members should be an administrative offence,” Mizulina is quoted as saying by the Guardian...

Mizulina has argued that laws criminalizing abuse are “anti-family.” She argued parents should have the ability to discipline their children as they see fit.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3186738/ru...-violence-law/