Context for July 1st: A look ahead at cap implications

[Kovaz]

With the July 1st free agent frenzy looming, I thought it would be useful to take a look at the Flames' current cap situation. Specifically, looking at each future off-season to see the impact that a potential UFA signing could have on our ability to re-sign current players. In my view, the current roster is good enough to consistently make the playoffs and, depending on the development of young players, challenge for the cup. So in the interest of avoiding a 2007 Buffalo Sabres situation (losing Briere and Drury to UFA), I'm imagining a future where we maintain the status quo - we simply re-sign our current players when their deals are up, and assume we can fill out peripheral lineup spots with prospects or second-tier UFAs.

Now, I'm not suggesting that that's the way forward. Rather, I'm using it as a baseline to evaluate potential signings. If we assume that we're going to try to re-sign every core player, then there's a fairly consistent structure to the type of contracts we can afford to add. If we deviate from that structure, it's not the end of the world, but it does mean we'll have to make more moves in the future to fix it. Look at what Chicago's doing lately - they don't have room to give raises, so they're forced into dealing players like Panarin or Hjalmarsson. The Hawks current situation makes it pretty clear: if you've got more players needing raises than expendable contracts expiring, you're going to lose someone. Again, I'm not saying that's the wrong way to do it, but that is the cost of some moves they made several years earlier, and it's important to be aware of that cost when making the earlier moves.

When looking at a given off-season, assuming you make no moves, your cap space will be the value of the expiring contracts, plus any extra cap space you carried through the season. I think ideally we're going to be a cap team, so when allocating raises we have to look exclusively at the expiring contracts.

So without further ado, here's what our future looks like at the moment.

NOTE: I separated contracts that are currently in the NHL from those that aren't currently affecting our cap situation. I figure it won't have much impact on the conclusions drawn since they're all sub-$1M contracts and pretty interchangeable.

2017 Off-season
Notable UFAs:
Kris Versteeg
Michael Stone

Notable RFAs:
Sam Bennett
Micheal Ferland
Curtis Lazar
Alex Chiasson
David Rittich
Jon Gillies
Brett Kulak
Tyler Wotherspoon

Cap Space: $15.717M
Roster spots to fill: 4F 2D 1G


2018 Off-season

Expiring contracts (in NHL)
$3.575M Mikael Backlund
$3.125M Matt Stajan
$2.200M Lance Bouma
$0.612M Freddie Hamilton
$0.612M Matt Bartkowski
$1.050M Mason Raymond

$11.625M Total

Other expiring contracts
Mark Jankowski
Hunter Shinkaruk
Morgan Klimchuk
Emile Poirier

Backlund likely commands a raise in the $5-5.5M territory, but the expiring contracts of Stajan and Bouma more than cover that. That leaves about $6M to both fill out the bottom few slots on the roster (4th line, 7th D), and extend any prospects that make the team full-time. Might be a bit tight, but seems doable especially if the cap goes up at all.


2019 Off-season

Expiring contracts (in NHL)
$0.925M Matthew Tkachuk
$4.250M Mike Smith

$5.175M Total

Other expiring contracts
Mason McDonald
Andrew Mangiapane

This might be a bit trickier of an off-season. Tkachuk will very likely garner a raise, and all we've got to work with is Smith's money. So as it currently stands, Smith is gone unless he takes a major paycut, and we won't have enough money to look elsewhere for a starter. So this puts quite a bit of pressure on Gillies or Parsons to be ready in two years.


2020 Off-season

Expiring contracts (in NHL)
$4.500M Troy Brouwer
$4.300M Michael Frolik
$4.650M TJ Brodie
$3.857M Travis Hamonic

$17.307M Total

Other expiring contracts
Dillon Dube
Tyler Parsons
Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Kylington

Brodie and Hamonic will both likely need raises. So Brouwer is gone for sure, and possibly Frolik. By this point we should have a good idea of Andersson's and Kylington's play at an NHL level, so we might be forced to choose between, say, Hamonic or Andersson. But we'll have had probably a whole season or two of seeing both of them play. I'm not too worried about this one - I think we can replace Frolik internally if it comes to that.


2021 Off-season

Expiring Contracts (in NHL)
$5.75M Dougie Hamilton

We're starting to get far enough out that things will be very different by this off-season, but for now it's just Dougie. So as things stand we won't have room to give him a raise.


2022 Off-season

Expiring Contracts (in NHL)
$6.75M Johnny Gaudreau
$6.75M Mark Giordano

It's quite likely Gaudreau's looking for a raise, but Gio's contract expires at the same time so that will cover it nicely. A long way away and we're in good shape.


2023 Off-season

Expiring Contracts (in NHL)
$6.375M Sean Monahan

A long way away, things will certainly change before this becomes relevant.


Conclusions
As it stands, there's some potential trouble in both the 2019 and 2020 off-seasons. With Sam Bennett looking at a probable bridge deal ending in one of the two, we need to ensure we'll be able to keep both him and Tkachuk assuming they both develop into the players we expect them to. 2019 in particular worries me because we could have trouble fitting a goalie under the cap - the last thing I want to happen is for us to rush someone like Gillies into the starting job when we don't think he's ready.

There are some potential windows where UFA deals make a lot of sense. If we add some expendable UFAs on 2 or 3 year deals, we give ourselves a lot more flexibility for those off-seasons. I think re-signing Stone and/or Versteeg to 2-year deals would make a big difference in the 2019 off-season. I don't think there's any way to make a 2-year deal work with Bennett - there's not enough money coming off the books no matter what we do, so we'd likely be forced into a trade to shed salary and those can get ugly. The 2020 off-season at least gives us more moving parts to work with, so although we probably lose someone good we'll at least have more options.

So when we're looking at UFAs that we want to sign, whether it's to bolster the 3rd pair or upgrade the RW, be sure to keep in mind the impact it could have.

[Vinny01]

I can see Frolik being moved before his contract expires to recoup one of those second rounders we don't have over the next 3 years. Earliest I can see that happening is next summer though.

For that to happen a guy like Lazar, Shinkaruk, Porier, Klimchuk need to step up and be an everyday player to a top 6 forward.

I can see Brouwer flipped down the line if he ever finds his game again.

The core of the team they should retain and build around is- Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Bennett, Backlund up front with hopeful future core pieces being Jankowski and Lazar. On the blueline you have Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie, Hamonic with hopes that 2 of Kylington, Andersen, Fox, Valimaki can move up the depth chart as some of the older guys age.

In net we have Smith expiring in 2 years. The hope is Gillies and/or Parsons are ready to take over once Ith expires in 2 years.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

In net we have Smith expiring in 2 years. The hope is Gillies and/or Parsons are ready to take over once Ith expires in 2 years.

I think that's the most urgent current cap issue: having only ~$5.5M to deal with Tkachuk's next contract and a starting goaltender. If we re-signed Stone on a 2-year, $3.5M contract, then we can let him go in 2 years and have $9M instead.

I agree with the rest of your post. I think Frolik and/or Brouwer likely get dealt at the 2020 trade deadline to recoup a few picks. However I think dealing them earlier than that might not be worth it. They're sort of holding onto cap-space that's already "reserved" for guys like Brodie, Hamonic, Andersson, Kylington (plus maybe Bennett) in 2020, so if you deal them a year earlier, so by trading them you open up some space in the 2019 off-season, but if you use that cap space on anything other than a 1-year deal you don't have it in 2020 any more.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

2018 Off-season

Expiring contracts (in NHL)
$3.575M Mikael Backlund
$3.125M Matt Stajan
$2.200M Lance Bouma
$0.612M Freddie Hamilton
$0.612M Matt Bartkowski

$10.125M Total

You forgot Mason Raymond, $1.05M.

2019 Off-season

Expiring contracts (in NHL)
$0.925M Matthew Tkachuk
$4.250M Mike Smith

$5.175M Total

Other expiring contracts
Mason McDonald
Andrew Mangiapane

This might be a bit trickier of an off-season. Tkachuk will very likely garner a raise, and all we've got to work with is Smith's money.

Plus two cap raises, which is likely to be at least $4M.

So when we're looking at UFAs that we want to sign, whether it's to bolster the 3rd pair or upgrade the RW, be sure to keep in mind the impact it could have.

Yeah, by my approximations there's no room to make significant UFA acquisitions. Even Versteeg might cost too much.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Itse

You forgot Mason Raymond, $1.05M.

Thanks, added.

Plus two cap raises, which is likely to be at least $4M.

Correct, but I didn't want to rely on that too heavily. This is intended as more of a worst-case scenario analysis - I don't want to be sitting around with fingers crossed hoping the cap goes up enough that we get to keep Bennett for example.

Yeah, by my approximations there's no room to make significant UFA acquisitions. Even Versteeg might cost too much.

As far as major acquisitions, yeah I agree. I do think there's a 2-year window though where it wouldn't hurt us too much.

[PepsiFree]

As much as I recognise the effort, going to next offseason (and especially beyond) when we haven't even officially entered this offseason is meaningless. Like the game itself, hockey management is not static nor is it predictable long term.

Especially considering every time you sign a contract or make a trade you vastly change the off-season implications. I get that the theory is we just spend to the cap every year, but without a reason why it would just be wasted money.

Nice look forward as of today, but not particularly useful. You easily fix the goalie situation in 2019 by saving 3-4 million in 2018, which is easy.

[robaur]

if Gillies isn't ready in 2 years, you have bigger problems than the cap...that would likely mean Gillies time with the team is finished.

[Kovaz]

It definitely does get less useful every year you look into the future, but I think there are some useful conclusions to be drawn over the next 2 or 3 years. For example:

1. Next off-season we have more than enough cap space, so we can spend right to the cap on 2-year deals with minimal adverse consequences.
2. Two years from now could be problematic, so Bennett's bridge deal is probably better off being 3 years than 2.

We have to make some decisions in the next week or so that will have consequences down the line, and I think it's prudent to be aware that, for example, signing Bennett to a 2 year deal also implicitly means you could have to trade Frolik in a year and a half.

Like I said in the OP, I'm not advocating that we completely avoid having to make any deals like that, just that we take it into consideration.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by robaur

if Gillies isn't ready in 2 years, you have bigger problems than the cap...that would likely mean Gillies time with the team is finished.

Not necessarily. In a perfect world, Gillies plays a full year in the AHL and then backs up Smith for a year. Even in that case, we'd be committing fully to a guy with, say, 25 NHL games in his career. It'd be nice to have a bit of cash to afford a solid backup or 1B guy to ease that transition.