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View Poll Results: Total AAV value? Ferland+Bennett+Lazar+Kulak
3-4M 2 0.71%
4-5M 12 4.24%
5-6M 61 21.55%
6-7M 111 39.22%
7-8M 71 25.09%
8-9M 18 6.36%
9-10M 5 1.77%
10M+ 3 1.06%
Voters: 283. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-03-2017, 02:38 PM   #21
devo22
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age 23 season: 78 games, 5 goals + 10 assists = 15 points, 41 PIM, -4
age 24 season: 78 games, 16 goals + 18 goals = 34 points, 54 PIM, +10

age 23 season: 71 games, 4 goals + 14 assists = 18 points, 45 PIM, -15
age 24 season: 76 games, 15 goals + 10 assists = 25 points, 50 PIM, -1

Player A is Lance Bouma. Player B is Micheal Ferland. Bouma then of course signed for 3 years and a 2.2m AAV.

Last edited by devo22; 07-03-2017 at 02:42 PM.
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:40 PM   #22
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What about Kulak? He needs to be counted. Decent chance he's number 6
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:42 PM   #23
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Kulak might come in anywhere between $700K and $900K for a 2 year deal IMO.
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:45 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22 View Post
age 23 season: 78 games, 5 goals + 10 assists = 15 points, 41 PIM, -4
age 24 season: 78 games, 16 goals + 18 goals = 34 points, 54 PIM, -6

age 23 season: 71 games, 4 goals + 14 assists = 18 points, 45 PIM, -15
age 24 season: 76 games, 15 goals + 10 assists = 25 points, 50 PIM, -1

Player A is Lance Bouma. Player B is Micheal Ferland. Bouma then of course signed for 3 years and a 2.2m AAV.
I think everybody knew Bouma wasn't going to be able to repeat those offensive numbers.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=16499

The last time he hit 15 goals in a season was for the Wainwright Polar Kings Midget AA when he was 15/16 years old.

Whereas Ferland hit 47 goals in the WHL.
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:49 PM   #25
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Quote:
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Whereas Ferland hit 47 goals in the WHL.
which was also the last time he scored more than 15

I agree with your point though. Just found it funny how eerily similar those numbers are at the same age.
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:54 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22 View Post
age 23 season: 78 games, 5 goals + 10 assists = 15 points, 41 PIM, -4
age 24 season: 78 games, 16 goals + 18 goals = 34 points, 54 PIM, +10

age 23 season: 71 games, 4 goals + 14 assists = 18 points, 45 PIM, -15
age 24 season: 76 games, 15 goals + 10 assists = 25 points, 50 PIM, -1

Player A is Lance Bouma. Player B is Micheal Ferland. Bouma then of course signed for 3 years and a 2.2m AAV.
Yup, that's why I think it's very unlikely Treliving goes over 2 for Ferland.



Kulak will probably take less money to get a one-way deal. I could see him coming in around $750,000.
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:58 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22 View Post
age 23 season: 78 games, 5 goals + 10 assists = 15 points, 41 PIM, -4
age 24 season: 78 games, 16 goals + 18 goals = 34 points, 54 PIM, +10

age 23 season: 71 games, 4 goals + 14 assists = 18 points, 45 PIM, -15
age 24 season: 76 games, 15 goals + 10 assists = 25 points, 50 PIM, -1

Player A is Lance Bouma. Player B is Micheal Ferland. Bouma then of course signed for 3 years and a 2.2m AAV.
Ferland is SO much better than Bouma.

There should be no surprise that Lance can't repeat that magical 2014-15 season and won't ever come close to doing that again in the NHL.
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:58 PM   #28
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2+2.75+.9+.9

6.35 total

(2 years, 2 years, 1 year, 1 year)
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Old 07-03-2017, 02:59 PM   #29
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Quote:
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which was also the last time he scored more than 15
True, though the following season he split his time amongst 4 different teams (and 3 different leagues). He scored at a 22 goal pace with the Blades before getting injured.

He also only played 25 games due to injury the following year in the AHL (on a 18 goal pace), and 32 games in the AHL the year after that (16 goal pace), also playing the NHL.
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:22 PM   #30
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Ferland @ 2
Bennet @ 1.5
Lazar @ 1.0
Kulak @ 1.0

5.5, theres no way bennett should get paid more then Ferland at least for next year.
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:24 PM   #31
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Bennett on a two year deal is dangerous.

No reason to have him and Tkachuk have to get raises at the same time.

Go as long as you can imo. He'll be worth it
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:30 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22 View Post
which was also the last time he scored more than 15

I agree with your point though. Just found it funny how eerily similar those numbers are at the same age.
Are those numbers that similar though? 36% better points wise for Bouma in the 2nd year before the pay day. If points are the biggest factor contributing to pay day and you do a comparable 3 year contract by reducing 36% puts Ferland's contract below 1.5M AAV.

I don't expect Ferland to come in that low for a number of reasons, but I'm guessing it won't be 3 years and it will be for less AAV than Bouma was.

Last edited by Cleveland Steam Whistle; 07-03-2017 at 03:32 PM.
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:31 PM   #33
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Bennett on a two year deal is dangerous.

No reason to have him and Tkachuk have to get raises at the same time.

Go as long as you can imo. He'll be worth it
Signing Bennett to an 8 year deal as an RFA is comparable to the extensions that Scheifele (8 yrs, $6.125M AAV), Tarasenko (8 , $7.5M), Mackinnon (7, $6.3M), Monahan (7, $6.375M), and Forsberg (6, $6M) signed. I'm not sure Bennett is worth a $6M contract at this point.

Consider the closest to home comparable:

Monahan before his extension: 237 GP 80 G 79A 159P 38PIM Playoffs 11 GP 3 G 3A 6P 2 PIM
Bennett before his extension: 159 GP 31 G 32A 63P 112PIM Playoffs 15 GP 5G 1 A 6P 12 PIM

The Flames chose to burn year 1 of Bennett's ELC for the playoffs in 14-15, so the GP numbers don't quite line up of course. But Bennett's per game scoring stats are a fair bit lower than Monahan's.

Last edited by Finger Cookin; 07-03-2017 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:35 PM   #34
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I'm thinking Ferland gets 2.5-3.
Bennett at 3.
Lazar at 1.5
Kulak at 1.

So 8-8.5 total.
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:35 PM   #35
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bennett will be an interesting case...

i think he gets a "backlund prove it" type of contract... so 2.5-3 million for 2 years max.

no way his agent goes for a longer term and there's no way the flames are paying him a ton of money over a 6 year term...
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:36 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Finger Cookin View Post
Signing Bennett to an 8 year deal as an RFA is comparable to the extensions that Scheifele (8 yrs, $6.125M AAV), Tarasenko (8 , $7.5M), Mackinnon (7, $6.3M), Monahan (7, $6.375M), and Forsberg (6, $6M) signed. I'm not sure Bennett is worth a $6M contract at this point.
He isn't

A Klefbom contract would be a steal longterm though.
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Old 07-03-2017, 03:37 PM   #37
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Bennett scored 26 points last year. That's only two more than Alex Chiasson. I'm still high on Bennett's potential but I don't think he's earned a cent more than $2mil/year. I think he winds up with $2.5mil AAV for 3 years though. I think Ferland comes in between $1.5m-$2.0m AAV for three years and Lazar around $1.0m AAV for two years.
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Old 07-03-2017, 04:15 PM   #38
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Bennett - $2.75 x 2
Ferland - $2.5 x 3
Lazar - $800 x 1
Kulak - $1.0 x1

Just a hair over $7M
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Old 07-03-2017, 04:18 PM   #39
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I will be fine if Bennett agrees to a $4mil x 5yr deal.

And:

Ferland - $2mil x 3
Lazar - $1.5mil x 2
Kulak -$1.1mil x 2
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Old 07-03-2017, 04:40 PM   #40
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Bennett: 3 x 3 (2.0, 3.0, 4.0)
Ferland: 2.66 x 4
Lazar: 1.33 x 2
Kulak: 2 way contract; 1m

Total: 8m
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