How does Matthew Tkachuk compare to the best rookies in Flames history?

[JerryUnderscore]

Okay, in light of the conversation around how scoring was different in various eras, I decided to take a look at Darren Haynes list of top 25 scorers and normalize their points to a 2016-17 season equivalent.

Basically, what I did was look at the average number of goals scored per team per game in each year, that way I could figure out a rough modifier for each season. Below is those same 25 players with the year they played their rookie season, points scored that season, average goals/game that season, that season's equivalency modifier and the total points they would have scored if they played in 2016-17. Matthew Tkachuk is also lists based on his current pace (He's at 44p in 68 games on pace for 53).




Based on this, Tkachuk is the 4th best Flames rookie. Of course that could change before the end of the season. He probably won't go on a tear and pass Makarov, but he could potentially cool off and drop down to 5th.

I can also put this data in a Google spreadsheet and share it if people are interested and want to play around with it.

[Dan403]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Backlund was a mid-twenties pick

24th IIRC

[SuperMatt18]

Oh rookie season Dion Phaneuf, what the $#$% happened to you.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

Okay, in light of the conversation around how scoring was different in various eras, I decided to take a look at Darren Haynes list of top 25 scorers and normalize their points to a 2016-17 season equivalent.

Basically, what I did was look at the average number of goals scored per team per game in each year, that way I could figure out a rough modifier for each season. Below is those same 25 players with the year they played their rookie season, points scored that season, average goals/game that season, that season's equivalency modifier and the total points they would have scored if they played in 2016-17. Matthew Tkachuk is also lists based on his current pace (He's at 44p in 68 games on pace for 53).




Based on this, Tkachuk is the 4th best Flames rookie. Of course that could change before the end of the season. He probably won't go on a tear and pass Makarov, but he could potentially cool off and drop down to 5th.

I can also put this data in a Google spreadsheet and share it if people are interested and want to play around with it.

That's a tad unfair to defencemen given the role and eliminates goalies (which would only be Vernon).

[IGGYFORMVP]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

Okay, in light of the conversation around how scoring was different in various eras, I decided to take a look at Darren Haynes list of top 25 scorers and normalize their points to a 2016-17 season equivalent.

Basically, what I did was look at the average number of goals scored per team per game in each year, that way I could figure out a rough modifier for each season. Below is those same 25 players with the year they played their rookie season, points scored that season, average goals/game that season, that season's equivalency modifier and the total points they would have scored if they played in 2016-17. Matthew Tkachuk is also lists based on his current pace (He's at 44p in 68 games on pace for 53).



Based on this, Tkachuk is the 4th best Flames rookie. Of course that could change before the end of the season. He probably won't go on a tear and pass Makarov, but he could potentially cool off and drop down to 5th.

I can also put this data in a Google spreadsheet and share it if people are interested and want to play around with it.

Great work Jerry! The one thing that jumps out at me is how much younger Tkachuk is then the other top players. Perhaps another column with the age of each player in their rookie seasons would be a good addition?

[CSharp]

In terms of productivity - no Flames have ever matched that of Nieuwendyk to date, period. Nieuwy matched that with his sophomore season as well - crazy!

In terms of how Tkachuk compares for rookie year, I'd say he's comparable to Gary Roberts second partial year 87-88 season.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CSharp

In terms of how Tkachuk compares for rookie year, I'd say he's comparable to Gary Roberts second partial year 87-88 season.

You sure about that season?

Wiki tells me Roberts was:

74 GP
13 G
15 A
28 pts

I reckon Tkachuk has passed him.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's a tad unfair to defencemen given the role and eliminates goalies (which would only be Vernon).

Yes, this unfortunately does not measure rookies in how effective they were at other aspects of the game. This is purely a points-based measurement. Defensive defensemen and goalies don't register on this list.

Of course, that's an issue for Darren Haynes. It was his list I used.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

Yes, this unfortunately does not measure rookies in how effective they were at other aspects of the game. This is purely a points-based measurement. Defensive defensemen and goalies don't register on this list.

Of course, that's an issue for Darren Haynes. It was his list I used.

Not a criticism of you, sorry if it came across that way.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

You sure about that season?

Wiki tells me Roberts was:

74 GP
13 G
15 A
28 pts

I reckon Tkachuk has passed him.

Roberts was essentially a middleweight enforcer for the first few years of his career. One year he decided he didn't have to fight every goon and instead decided to play. Turns out he could score a lot of goals.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Roberts was essentially a middleweight enforcer for the first few years of his career. One year he decided he didn't have to fight every goon and instead decided to play. Turns out he could score a lot of goals.

It was meant as a negative post about Roberts, I just questioning the season he picked, 88-89 Roberts might be closer comparison

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Not a criticism of you, sorry if it came across that way.

No, not at all. Just admitting the weakness of a chart like this. Defenceman are difficult to measure from a stats perspective unless you're going to get into fancy stats.

Plus-minus is terrible and unless they're an offensive defenceman they're not likely to break into the list of top rookie scorers. But that certainly doesn't mean a defenceman doesn't have a good rookie season.

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Roberts was essentially a middleweight enforcer for the first few years of his career. One year he decided he didn't have to fight every goon and instead decided to play. Turns out he could score a lot of goals.

Hmmmm, hopefully that's going to be Bennett's trajectory?

[Snuffleupagus]

My eye test says 4th:

Nieuwendyk, Loob, Suter and Tkachuk

honorable mentions:

Wilson. Iginla and Phaneuf

[polak]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

My eye test says 4th:

Nieuwendyk, Loob, Suter and Tkachuk

honorable mentions:

Wilson. Iginla and Phaneuf

You think Tkachuk had a better rookie season than Gaudreau?

I'd put Tkachuk behind both Gaudreau and Phaneuf.