Better rebuild situation 2013 or 2024?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I don't think this is a 2013 vs 2024 discussion, this is a 2013 vs 2023 discussion. The state the team was in when Conroy took over in 2023 needs to be compared to when Treliving took over in 2013.

2013 was better because we had pretty much a clean slate to work from. The GM wasn't left with any trade debt to deal with and no real albatross contracts hanging around the team. The assets to dump in that first year weren't as good as Conroy got to work with but the prospect base was also better IMO.

Conroy has improved that prospect base in his first year of managing the team by getting some prospect depth at an area we needed help. He's been way more proactive in dealing with issues head on than the last GM. Conroy has got us off to a way better start in a rebuild or retool, and that started in earnest last summer IMO.

Which makes this situation better because Treliving never seemed like he wanted to stockpile picks and prosects and always wanted vets at the bottom of the lineup. The biggest win from this year was Conroy has done both and now has tons of picks, tons of prospects and guys like Zary, Pospisil, Wolf, Coronato, Pelletier all with 30+ games in the NHL and Wolf having 15 starts in the nhl. He has more kids coming but already has a roster full of kids that got a fair number of games and Pospisil and Zary played major roles all year and responded very well.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Which makes this situation better because Treliving never seemed like he wanted to stockpile picks and prosects and always wanted vets at the bottom of the lineup. The biggest win from this year was Conroy has done both and now has tons of picks, tons of prospects and guys like Zary, Pospisil, Wolf, Coronato, Pelletier all with 30+ games in the NHL and Wolf having 15 starts in the nhl. He has more kids coming but already has a roster full of kids that got a fair number of games and Pospisil and Zary played major roles all year and responded very well.

You're comparing current state (2024) instead of the state the team was in when Conroy took it over (2023). Conroy has done a full year's work to get to this current state and has done so with purpose. Those "tons of picks" are a result of Conroy moving his UFAs, not what he was left with. Without those moves we are weak in the pick department. Conroy deserves a ton of credit for his moves so far and what he has accomplished in his first year of managing the team. This started a year ago which is why the fair comparison is a year ago.

People are also grossly underselling the enthusiasm around that 2013 team and the youth we had coming in back then. Monahan, Brodie, Colborne, and Bouma were just breaking in. We had exceptionally high hopes for Baertschi, Wotherspoon, Granlund, Horak, Ortio, Reinhart, Agostino, Knight, Arnold, and Gaudreau, who were all knocking at the door. Hindsight should provide a warning that many of the young players we think are going to be front and center to this team in the long-term are never going to be NHL players of note.

[1991 Canadian]

I'm a bit surprised that 2024 is significantly ahead of 2013.

With the benefit of hindsight, 2013 had a decent core to build on. It clearly never worked out, but all 3 of these players played well above their contracts/draft position for their entire Flames careers.

#1 LW in Gaudreau.
#1 D in Giordano
#2 D in Brodie

In 2024. We have 2.5/5 of the top line players in place. And they are collectively older than the 2013 core pieces. In the case of Markstrom, he may be gone as soon as this summer.

#2 D in Weegar
#2 D in Andersson
#1G in Markstrom. Hopefully Wolf for the future.

I really like a lot of the Flames young players and prospects, but I see most topping out as 2nd and 3rd line players.

What really sets the 2024 rebuild back is the albatross contracts. I'm worried that when the Flames finally turn a corner, they will be hamstrung with a lot of dead money. Huberdeau is arguably the only present day bad value contract, but the rest are coming.

Lets turn forward to 2026-27.

Huberdeau will be 34, making $11.5 million, and have 5 years left
Kadri will be 36, making $7 million, and have 2 years left
Weegar will be 33, making $6.25 million, and have 5 years left
Coleman will be 35, making $4.9 million, and be a UFA at the end of season

If even one of those players is still earning their cap hit, I'd consider that a win. I'm already prepping myself to be frustrated that we have some good young players pushing the organization forward, but the team doesn't have cap space to surround them with better players.

[kipperiggy]

Even reading through the thread I don't understand how 2024 is so far ahead. Treliving left a mess. So far Conroy is doing a great job wading through it, selling off UFAs, stockpiling the cupboards. But think Treliving had less of a mess when he took over in 2013.

[Erick Estrada]

IMO 2013 was clearly better. At least they had Gaudreau, Monahan, and Baertschi and a 23 year old Brodie. The organization right now doesn't have a single elite player on the roster nor does it have a blue chip prospect in the system. Lots of solid B prospects but that's not how a cup contender is built. Hopefully the 2024 draft brings in an A level prospect or two if the hockey gods smile on us.

[blankall]

The Flames are in a much better position now IMO. Zary, Pelletier, Coronato, Wolf, Poirier, Pospisil, etc.. is a much better group of prospects. They all look more like depth guys, but they are great depth guys to have. Lots of jam, physical play, and some skill mixed in.

Gaudreau was an exciting young player in 2013, but he was also looking like a bit of a longshot. He was tiny and far from a sure thing.

What the Flames are clearly missing right now, is elite skill. That's where the draft comes in. Hopefully, the Flames bottom out in 2024/25. The right thing to do is trade Markstrom and let Wolf's development years coincide with the Flames' rebuilding years. If the Flames can draft high end skill over the next 2-3 years, there could be a pretty good turnaround.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

IMO 2013 was clearly better. At least they had Gaudreau, Monahan, and Baertschi and a 23 year old Brodie. The organization right now doesn't have a single elite player on the roster nor does it have a blue chip prospect in the system. Lots of solid B prospects but that's not how a cup contender is built. Hopefully the 2024 draft brings in an A level prospect or two if the hockey gods smile on us.

If you use Lanny's time line of last summer ... sure.

If you go with today though then you can't include Monahan without including who the Flames draft top ten in 9 weeks.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Flames are in a much better position now IMO. Zary, Pelletier, Coronato, Wolf, Poirier, Pospisil, etc.. is a much better group of prospects. They all look more like depth guys, but they are great depth guys to have. Lots of jam, physical play, and some skill mixed in.

Gaudreau was an exciting young player in 2013, but he was also looking like a bit of a longshot. He was tiny and far from a sure thing.

What the Flames are clearly missing right now, is elite skill. That's where the draft comes in. Hopefully, the Flames bottom out in 2024/25. The right thing to do is trade Markstrom and let Wolf's development years coincide with the Flames' rebuilding years. If the Flames can draft high end skill over the next 2-3 years, there could be a pretty good turnaround.

I think we were in a much better spot in 2013. 6th overall + 2 x 1sts. Gaudreau had elite skill and star potential. Ferland, and Bouma were similar to Pospisil, Byron to Pelletier, Gaudreau was better than Zary. Coronato is better than Baertschi, Honzek, and Wolf remain as X factors for this year's rebuild.

Giordano was similar to Weegar, Brodie to Andersson.

The difference was that we didn't have any anchor contracts for 7 years into the future. I'd take a younger Backlund + Hudler + Squid + Wideman + Glencross + Stajan + Hiller over Backlund + Coleman + Kadri + Huberdeau + Markstrom.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

IMO 2013 was clearly better. At least they had Gaudreau, Monahan, and Baertschi and a 23 year old Brodie. The organization right now doesn't have a single elite player on the roster nor does it have a blue chip prospect in the system. Lots of solid B prospects but that's not how a cup contender is built. Hopefully the 2024 draft brings in an A level prospect or two if the hockey gods smile on us.

Does Wolf still not project as a potential elite goalie?

I think there is way more depth in the prospect pool now but there is no Gaudreau and not sure the 9th pick will be as good as Monahan was especially early.

5 years of 1st rounders before the retool
2008- Nemisz bust, 2019 Pelletier TBD
2009 Erixon traded, 2020 Zary (good potential)
2010 no pick, 2021 Coronato (good potential)
2011 Baerstchi bust, 2022 no pick
2012 Jankowski basically bust, 2023 Honzek (TBD)

There doesn’t appear to be a Brodie or Backlund on the team however as early-mid 20’s players ready to take top pairing, top 6 minutes.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I don't think this is a 2013 vs 2024 discussion, this is a 2013 vs 2023 discussion. The state the team was in when Conroy took over in 2023 needs to be compared to when Treliving took over in 2013.

2013 was better because we had pretty much a clean slate to work from. The GM wasn't left with any trade debt to deal with and no real albatross contracts hanging around the team. The assets to dump in that first year weren't as good as Conroy got to work with but the prospect base was also better IMO.

Conroy has improved that prospect base in his first year of managing the team by getting some prospect depth at an area we needed help. He's been way more proactive in dealing with issues head on than the last GM. Conroy has got us off to a way better start in a rebuild or retool, and that started in earnest last summer IMO.

I chose 2013 and 2024 because those were the seasons where the team fashioned themselves a playoff team and were forced to move key players due to a disappointing season where contracts were coming to an end and a top 10 pick was on the horizon.

Feaster sold off 2 pieces to Conroy selling off 4 (5 if you include Toffoli in the summer). Flames had 3x 1st that summer but no 2nd and the 6th overall pick. Flames have 2 1st and 2 2nd with likely the 9th pick

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

You're comparing current state (2024) instead of the state the team was in when Conroy took it over (2023). Conroy has done a full year's work to get to this current state and has done so with purpose. Those "tons of picks" are a result of Conroy moving his UFAs, not what he was left with. Without those moves we are weak in the pick department. Conroy deserves a ton of credit for his moves so far and what he has accomplished in his first year of managing the team. This started a year ago which is why the fair comparison is a year ago.

People are also grossly underselling the enthusiasm around that 2013 team and the youth we had coming in back then. Monahan, Brodie, Colborne, and Bouma were just breaking in. We had exceptionally high hopes for Baertschi, Wotherspoon, Granlund, Horak, Ortio, Reinhart, Agostino, Knight, Arnold, and Gaudreau, who were all knocking at the door. Hindsight should provide a warning that many of the young players we think are going to be front and center to this team in the long-term are never going to be NHL players of note.

Going back to your last post, Treleving took over in 2014, not 2013. Feaster and Burke had done all the heavy lifting during the clean-out years of 2012 and 2013 and created a pretty blank slate for Treleving to step into in 2014. Conroy had to do all the initial heavy lifting during his clean out year (2023).

End of season 2013 didn't have Monahan (Poirier, Klimchuk or Eric Roy, who I was jazzed about). It had Gaudreau, (who was still a big question mark), Baertschi, Granlund, Jankowski and Gillies to be excited about. And other than Baertschi, the rest of the prospect base (including Granlund, Jankowski and Gillies) were Bs and even C+ -- despite our excitement at the time.

Depending on the cut off, I'd take end of 2023 over end of 2013. Calgary had so much more talent available to trade to kick start the rebuild, which Conroy has done well, and so many more prospects with collectively better potential.

If we compare pre-draft 2014 to pre-draft 2024, I'd swing to 2014, because Calgary had Monahan, Poirier, Klimchuk, a top 5 pick AND Johnny Fricken Gaudreau scored in his first NHL game which obviously meant he really was going to be a superstar.

But if we're shifting goal posts, pre draft 2014 (after year one of the rebuild) should be compared to pre-draft 2025 (after year one of the rebuild, as management was still expecting to compete this year). And pre-draft 2025 is looking pretty interesting with all the picks we have and the potential for another high draft pick next year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Does Wolf still not project as a potential elite goalie?

I think there is way more depth in the prospect pool now but there is no Gaudreau and not sure the 9th pick will be as good as Monahan was especially early.

5 years of 1st rounders before the retool
2008- Nemisz bust, 2019 Pelletier TBD
2009 Erixon traded, 2020 Zary (good potential)
2010 no pick, 2021 Coronato (good potential)
2011 Baerstchi bust, 2022 no pick
2012 Jankowski basically bust, 2023 Honzek (TBD)

There doesn’t appear to be a Brodie or Backlund on the team however as early-mid 20’s players ready to take top pairing, top 6 minutes.

Hindsight is a thing of course, and more recent prospects always seem to have upside until they don't.

But the Flames prospect list after the draft in 2013 (CP vote) was the following ...

Rank to Date
1. Monahan
2. Baertschi
3. Gaudreau
4. Gillies
5. Jankowski
6. Wotherspoon
7. Sieloff
8. Knight
9. Poirier
10.Klimchuck

Which to me says we didn't even know we had a Gaudreau at this point after the draft in 2013. He's 3rd, which says upside, but not 1st which says NHL star in the making.

Now last year's list

1. Wolf 65.3%
2. Coronato 73.5%
3. Honzek (run off, tied)
3. Pelletier (run off, tied)
5. Zary 50.4%
6. Poirier 49.1%
7. Morin 83.1%
8. Suniev 50.2%
9. Kuznetsov 32.0%
10. Stromgren 41.3%

That feels deeper (hindsight again), and it doesn't include this year's first and
Hunter Brzustewicz.

I think you could make the argument that the pool is deeper and better today than it was in July of 2013.

Two years later Gaudreau is a thing, but who's to say we don't see a pop from a player in the current top five.

[Icon]

^ 11 years and Poirier has only moved up 3 spots in the prospect ranking? Yeesh.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hindsight is a thing of course, and more recent prospects always seem to have upside until they don't.

But the Flames prospect list after the draft in 2013 (CP vote) was the following ...

Rank to Date
1. Monahan
2. Baertschi
3. Gaudreau
4. Gillies
5. Jankowski
6. Wotherspoon
7. Sieloff
8. Knight
9. Poirier
10.Klimchuck

Which to me says we didn't even know we had a Gaudreau at this point after the draft in 2013. He's 3rd, which says upside, but not 1st which says NHL star in the making.

Now last year's list

1. Wolf 65.3%
2. Coronato 73.5%
3. Honzek (run off, tied)
3. Pelletier (run off, tied)
5. Zary 50.4%
6. Poirier 49.1%
7. Morin 83.1%
8. Suniev 50.2%
9. Kuznetsov 32.0%
10. Stromgren 41.3%

That feels deeper (hindsight again), and it doesn't include this year's first and
Hunter Brzustewicz.

I think you could make the argument that the pool is deeper and better today than it was in July of 2013.

Two years later Gaudreau is a thing, but who's to say we don't see a pop from a player in the current top five.

Gaudreau still had a lot of people using Nathan Gerbe as a comparison at the time.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I think we were in a much better spot in 2013. 6th overall + 2 x 1sts. Gaudreau had elite skill and star potential. Ferland, and Bouma were similar to Pospisil, Byron to Pelletier, Gaudreau was better than Zary. Coronato is better than Baertschi, Honzek, and Wolf remain as X factors for this year's rebuild.

Giordano was similar to Weegar, Brodie to Andersson.

The difference was that we didn't have any anchor contracts for 7 years into the future. I'd take a younger Backlund + Hudler + Squid + Wideman + Glencross + Stajan + Hiller over Backlund + Coleman + Kadri + Huberdeau + Markstrom.

The only anchor in that group is Huberdeau. Backlund and Coleman are both worth their money and provide invaluable mentoring. Kadri is playing great right now, and can be bought out later. No arguing with Huberdeau. We were supposed to be getting good years now and painful years on the back end. It's all been painful so far.

Ferland in 2013, who had yet to play an NHL game, was not on the level of Pospisil. Bouma at that point had 4 points in 43 NHL games.

Byron had 8 points in 34 NHL games, spread over 3 seasons. Size was a much bigger issue in 2013.

These two comparisons aren't even close.

Gaudreau didn't play an NHL game until the very last game of 2013/14. So going into 2013, we still had the undersized college player, who'd been drafted in the 4th round in 2011.

Really the only higher point in 2013, was that Gaudreau was in the system, and he later emerged as a legit top line forward. Right now the Flames have much better depth. Will someone in the system emerge to be on the level of Gaudreau? Who knows, but what the Flames do have is a lot higher quality than what was there in 2013.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

IMO 2013 was clearly better. At least they had Gaudreau, Monahan, and Baertschi and a 23 year old Brodie. The organization right now doesn't have a single elite player on the roster nor does it have a blue chip prospect in the system. Lots of solid B prospects but that's not how a cup contender is built. Hopefully the 2024 draft brings in an A level prospect or two if the hockey gods smile on us.

Monahan was drafted after Iggy and Jay Bo were traded. He was pick #1 after the start of the rebuild. 2024 rebuild hasn't made the pick yet. We are likely to get a prospect as highly rated as Monahan was.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Monahan was drafted after Iggy and Jay Bo were traded. He was pick #1 after the start of the rebuild. 2024 rebuild hasn't made the pick yet. We are likely to get a prospect as highly rated as Monahan was.

Yup. Even though the thread is comparing 2013 to 2023, Calgary just finished the tear down at this year's trade deadline (like they did at the 2013 deadline), so we're only just going into the pre-2013 draft period in the rebuild now. I see the team as being better off than it was then.

It'll be interesting to compare the post 2014 draft with the post 2025 draft and where we think the team is next year.

After picking Sam Bennett in the 2014 draft, and with Treleving at the helm, things were starting to get exciting again in Calgary.

Will some of Calgary's young players take big steps this year? Will the team have a top 5 pick in next year's draft? Will we have had a year of Tij Iginla putting up points in the 2024/25 season?

[Sylvanfan]

Two advantages this time are that the guy who had to trade off players should still be here the next few seasons to build his plan. It's not Feaster starting it...getting fired, than Burke stewarding it until another guy comes in. Looking back...that's bloody dysfunctional.

The other one is having your AHL team in the same city. So you should be able to better integrate your development team and NHL team. I get the focus is on needing 10 new Superstar players drafted in the top 2 to be a powerhouse.. but just getting those bottom roster guys who play 200 games for your team is tougher than you may realize.

[dino7c]

2024 will be better because we won't put our top two players in a a position to screw over the franchise (hopefully)

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Does Wolf still not project as a potential elite goalie?

I think there is way more depth in the prospect pool now but there is no Gaudreau and not sure the 9th pick will be as good as Monahan was especially early.

5 years of 1st rounders before the retool
2008- Nemisz bust, 2019 Pelletier TBD
2009 Erixon traded, 2020 Zary (good potential)
2010 no pick, 2021 Coronato (good potential)
2011 Baerstchi bust, 2022 no pick
2012 Jankowski basically bust, 2023 Honzek (TBD)

There doesn’t appear to be a Brodie or Backlund on the team however as early-mid 20’s players ready to take top pairing, top 6 minutes.

Baerstchi and Jankowski didn't pan out but relatively at this point they were still in a comparable position to coronato and pelletier with some decent d+++ years.