North Korea appears to be preparing to conduct a nuclear test in a show of defiance towards Donald Trump, who has not ruled out military action to pressure the regime into abandoning its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.
The US-based monitoring group 38 North said on Thursday that the satellite images from the North’s Punggye-ri site showed it was “primed and ready” for would be the country’s sixth nuclear test since 2006.
...
South Korean officials, however, played down speculation that a nuclear test was imminent. “There has been no unusual activity so far,” Roh Jae-chun, a spokesman for the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters, according to Yonhap news agency.
At first glance, this seems truly scary, but in the article it doesn't seem to be related to the nuclear test.
Quote:
“Population control was the pretext of the latest order,” said the source, who asked for anonymity, “but in reality, the purpose is to ‘purify’ the North Korean capital and allow only the loyal elite class to live there.”
Among those who were chosen by authorities to move are people whose relatives defected to South Korea, had been jailed in a prison camp, used drugs or counterfeit money, and produced, distributed or sold pirated films from the South.
According to Beijing sources familiar with Chinese military information, most of them are 39th and 40th Army Groups, which are formed in the Northern Military District to guard against an unexpected situation of the Korea peninsula. The 39th Army Group is a heavy mechanized unit and the 40th is the rapid deployment force. Both of them boast the country’s best combat power and firepower.
However, China and the US have disputed these reports. Reuters:
Quote:
China's Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that foreign media reports about a build-up of Chinese troops on its border with North Korea were "pure fabrication".
The ministry made the comment in a statement posted on its website.
Was there any substance to the rumor? Not according to senior U.S. military and intelligence officials. There was no "massing." As many as 250,000 Chinese troops are always operating in northeastern China, and the U.S. did not see any sign Beijing had moved them closer to the Yalu River, which separates North Korea from China.
Financial analysts were not surprised. Fake financial news has a longer history that any other kind of false reporting. ... There is money to be made before the news is proven true or false. The advent of social media and high-speed trading just adds to the possibilities.
One Pentagon official told NBC News, in language too profane to publish, that that's exactly what he thought happened with the China troop tale.
If any of these are accurate or close-to-accurate, it will prove interesting to see how the United States and its new Administration chooses to respond.
They have nukes, they're working on miniaturization so they can mount a weapon or multiple weapons on a light range long range missile.
But I don't doubt that they have small tactical nukes that can be fired from long range artillery.
The Chinese or American's have two choices because any move on NK ends Seoul due to the NK Artillery belt
1) Try to accomplish the impossible task of destroying all of the guns and missiles sited on Seoul. That's not likely to happen.
2) A massive time on target decapitation strike that takes out Kim, the government, the military and internal security apparatus at the same time which is almost as impossible.
I guess there's a third
3) Evacuate Seoul tomorrow and send a combined US and Chinese invasion into the North coming from the North, the South and via amphibious landings to cut off NK's ability to coordinate troops in the field, but preparation for that would be obvious to everyone.
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They have nukes, they're working on miniaturization so they can mount a weapon or multiple weapons on a light range long range missile.
But I don't doubt that they have small tactical nukes that can be fired from long range artillery.
The Chinese or American's have two choices because any move on NK ends Seoul due to the NK Artillery belt
1) Try to accomplish the impossible task of destroying all of the guns and missiles sited on Seoul. That's not likely to happen.
2) A massive time on target decapitation strike that takes out Kim, the government, the military and internal security apparatus at the same time which is almost as impossible.
I guess there's a third
3) Evacuate Seoul tomorrow and send a combined US and Chinese invasion into the North coming from the North, the South and via amphibious landings to cut off NK's ability to coordinate troops in the field, but preparation for that would be obvious to everyone.
What they need is for China to foment a coup from within N Korea's high command, the US and S Korea would have to offer up the whole peninsula as China's 'sphere of influence' in return for reunification of N and South Korea under S Korea's control but with no US troops on the peninsula
↑↑
While I wouldn't say it's time to panic, it is a big concern. I'm worried about how stable Kim Jong Un is and if he's actually crazy enough to use one.
3) Evacuate Seoul tomorrow and send a combined US and Chinese invasion into the North coming from the North, the South and via amphibious landings to cut off NK's ability to coordinate troops in the field, but preparation for that would be obvious to everyone.
Lol, 25 million people live in and around Seoul so obviously that's not happening.
Here's what I see or something like it, the Vinson carries a couple of Grumman X-47 drones and Kim likes to travel in his posh bullet proof train but it's not missile proof. I have a feeling Mr. Jong Un isn't going to see his 34th birthday.
With a U.S. aircraft carrier group steaming to the area and tension rising, South Korea said it believed the United States would consult it before any pre-emptive strike against the North.
From my perspective the South is as prepared as it can be, there are evac plans in place, shelters deep underground that can be quickly accessed and people trained to quickly enact.
Any first strike by the North would likely damage the northern section of Seoul and possibly kill 3-5 million inhabitants (THAAD would likely intercept a good number of missiles aimed at Seoul). After that it is likely game over for the north, it becomes the much needed parking spaces the south needs for business and China is a BIG part of that business plan, regardless of news clips, the ROK and China are friendly.
Once the ROK/USA/Japan get involved, (Yes I think Japan gets in the fight), this trio knocks out the important infrastructure the North needs for battle, it is done.
The North has almost no support from any friendlies while just about every country within a thousand miles of North Korea absolutely HATES them. The North could send everything they have, once its gone they have no way to rearm, get food to its troops etc etc. All supply routes will be instantly cut off.
Last edited by Cheese; 04-13-2017 at 07:48 AM.
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What they need is for China to foment a coup from within N Korea's high command, the US and S Korea would have to offer up the whole peninsula as China's 'sphere of influence' in return for reunification of N and South Korea under S Korea's control but with no US troops on the peninsula
I doubt that South Korea would agree to what is essentially a surrender to China.
I also have my doubts that South Korea is all that interested in reunification without massive funds coming from China and the US.
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Lol, 25 million people live in and around Seoul so obviously that's not happening.
Here's what I see or something like it, the Vinson carries a couple of Grumman X-47 drones and Kim likes to travel in his posh bullet proof train but it's not missile proof. I have a feeling Mr. Jong Un isn't going to see his 34th birthday.
I have my doubts that its that simple.
If you kill Kim you're going to create a massive power vacuum that the Military and the Internal Security apparatus would fight each other to fill as well as the massive amounts of suck ups that have the most to lose with Kim being deposed.
You would create a hail storm civil war with the civil population in the middle.
You would also create the uncertainty of warring factions who each would have access to massive stockpiles of chemical weapons and roughly 6 nuclear weapons.
This is literally a nightmare scenario tar baby.
Its not as simple as killing Kim with no succession plan in place.
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North Korea possibly preparing for nuclear test
