Millennials: Avocados or homes?

[GP_Matt]

^^^ One kid and no van it is.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Women today are waiting longer to have kids and they're having fewer of them. But most will still be parents at some point in their life. More people are buying condos, but detached homes still make up the largest housing category by far. New sub-divisions are still being built on the perimeter of every city in the country.

Okay but I never said this was going to happen tomorrow. If 50% more women are not having kids now than they were a generation ago and that trend continues at that pace, we're looking at 1 in 3 women being childless a generation from now. Whether it's 10 years from now or 20 years from now, either way we're looking at significantly less Canadians needing detached homes.

If that decline coincides with a shift in how owning a home is viewed as a status symbol (also quite likely), or the rise in a remote/mobile workforce (also likely) then that's going to soften the market. The number of sub-divisions being built right now only strengthens that notion because it means supply is likely to exceed demand right now. It's kind of like the EV thread. You don't need a substantial shift demand to affect market. Even a 10-20% decrease in demand would send ripples through it.

I'm not guaranteeing any of this will happen, but I am saying that you might want to have a backup plan if your retirement plan is contingent on someone paying market or above-market prices for your house.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Okay but I never said this was going to happen tomorrow. If 50% more women are not having kids now than they were a generation ago and that trend continues at that pace, we're looking at 1 in 3 women being childless a generation from now. Whether it's 10 years from now or 20 years from now, either way we're looking at significantly less Canadians needing detached homes.

If that decline coincides with a shift in how owning a home is viewed as a status symbol (also quite likely), or the rise in a remote/mobile workforce (also likely) then that's going to soften the market. The number of sub-divisions being built right now only strengthens that notion because it means supply is likely to exceed demand right now. It's kind of like the EV thread. You don't need a substantial shift demand to affect market. Even a 10-20% decrease in demand would send ripples through it.

I'm not guaranteeing any of this will happen, but I am saying that you might want to have a backup plan if your retirement plan is contingent on someone paying market or above-market prices for your house.

I just think that the missing link in all of this is that people change their minds. So when they're 20 and having a blast partying and hanging out and doing fun stuff they think "I will never have a minivan and don't want kids". Then they get older and some (not all, but some) change that opinion.

And with that change comes a number of other changes. Car2go is great when you're single and somewhat carefree or whatever. Driving little Johnny to and from hockey practice or the ski hill though? Not so much. Being a renter and told that the landlord is selling and you need to figure out new accommodations would also suck, so you might prefer to buy to control that kind of thing. And while you're at it, you might as well buy near a school and some playgrounds. And maybe you're willing to commute a little longer so that the kids have a bigger backyard to play in. You know what...since you're going to be a little further away from downtown as it is, maybe you should just buy something a little newer with the attached garage and ensuite bathroom. It's basically the same cost and it's 10-15 minutes tops for the commute. Next thing you know, you live in the suburbs and can't believe you didn't do it sooner!

And yeah, it's anecdotal, and doesn't represent everyones situation equally (and its not a pure representation of mine actually). But I have seen this type of thing happen quite often.

[CliffFletcher]

2 kids + big dog. Mini-van essential.

[tvp2003]

I think the conversation drastically changes once you have kids. Double income no kids? By all means ditch the car and rent a small condo and throw the extra cash into travel/investments/etc. Otherwise:

1 kid = 2 BR condo / small inner city house and sedan is doable.
2 kids = see above
3 kids = minivan time. Also, the allure of a big house will pull you to the 'burbs, but there are other options available if you're flexible on age/size/features.

[peter12]

This is such a depressing thread.

[Bill Bumface]

I just looked up the census numbers for my inner city community, as anecdotally, I find there are a lot more kids than when I moved here 8 years ago.

Between 2011 and 2014, the amount of kids 0-4 more than doubled.

Kids 5-14 were up 25%.

But everyone is fleeing to the burbs like their parents?

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

But everyone is fleeing to the burbs like their parents?

The avocados are fresher in the burbs. Can confirm.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I just looked up the census numbers for my inner city community, as anecdotally, I find there are a lot more kids than when I moved here 8 years ago.

Between 2011 and 2014, the amount of kids 0-4 more than doubled.

Kids 5-14 were up 25%.

But everyone is fleeing to the burbs like their parents?

I'm not saying everyone, and I do see that there are more kids in the inner city now than there were years ago. I just think that as people have kids and generally want more space or other amenities and things in the core become less important they move outward. There is also something to the idea that once your kids hit school and get involved in things wherever you live that you kind of want to stay there.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just think that the missing link in all of this is that people change their minds. So when they're 20 and having a blast partying and hanging out and doing fun stuff they think "I will never have a minivan and don't want kids". Then they get older and some (not all, but some) change that opinion.

Are people not reading what I'm writing here, or are they just that blinded by their own anecdotes that they refuse to believe blatant statistical evidence? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. The stats I posted are adjusted for age. The amount of childless people has increased in every age group compared to a generation ago, and by a significant amount. This means that yes in fact people are keeping to their plans of not having kids in their 20s, through their 30s, and well into their 40s. There is no missing link here.

Did those of you who've encountered more people who've gotten older and decided to have kids ever consider that it might be because you also have kids, and people with kids tend to hangout with other people with kids?

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Are people not reading what I'm writing here, or are they just that blinded by their own anecdotes that they refuse to believe blatant statistical evidence? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. The stats I posted are adjusted for age. The amount of childless people has increased in every age group compared to a generation ago, and by a significant amount. This means that yes in fact people are keeping to their plans of not having kids in their 20s, through their 30s, and well into their 40s. There is no missing link here.

Did those of you who've encountered more people who've gotten older and decided to have kids ever consider that it might be because you also have kids, and people with kids tend to hangout with other people with kids?

Also there's a significant margin of people without kids of the r/childfree variety that obnoxiously use words like "Crotchspawn" that nobody wants to hang out with anyway.

Also an ageing InCel population in conjunction with MGTOWs.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Are people not reading what I'm writing here, or are they just that blinded by their own anecdotes that they refuse to believe blatant statistical evidence? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. The stats I posted are adjusted for age. The amount of childless people has increased in every age group compared to a generation ago, and by a significant amount. This means that yes in fact people are keeping to their plans of not having kids in their 20s, through their 30s, and well into their 40s. There is no missing link here.

Did those of you who've encountered more people who've gotten older and decided to have kids ever consider that it might be because you also have kids, and people with kids tend to hangout with other people with kids?

I read what you posted, and you're just extrapolating, basically. You made the point that the number of women not having children climbs to record highs every year...which is fair enough. So how many generations until the human race is just wiped out because no one is having kids anymore?

There are a lot of factors, and you listed some yourself in talking about immigration. Countries could develop, immigration could become more/less desirable, we could see changing attitudes. Who knows. It's super difficult to predict and certainly not something that changes overnight.

But the fact is that Calgary is a young city. Our schools aren't sitting empty and unused, and that's indicative of the boom we experience and mini baby boom during those times. That doesn't mean it's happening everywhere, but it doesn't mean that the sky is falling either.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

I read what you posted, and you're just extrapolating, basically. You made the point that the number of women not having children climbs to record highs every year...which is fair enough. So how many generations until the human race is just wiped out because no one is having kids anymore?

I think there will always be people who want to have kids but I also think we're starting to tread near the point that people just don't find it financially feasible and can find other ways of enriching their lives.

I'm not saying this is likely but I could see a future where the only people who consistently intentionality conceive are the wealthy and those who still adhere strictly to religious dogma.

Either way though that's not really the point. Again, you don't need a cataclysmic shift to cause a downturn.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Also there's a significant margin of people without kids of the r/childfree variety that obnoxiously use words like "Crotchspawn" that nobody wants to hang out with anyway.

Also an ageing InCel population in conjunction with MGTOWs.

Hell, I had a friend tell me there's a "Together but living separately" movement or some such, which I kind of accidentally unintentionally subscribe to.

Edit: Yep, here it is https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Living_apart_together

[blankall]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think there will always be people who want to have kids but I also think we're starting to tread near the point that people just don't find it financially feasible and can find other ways of enriching their lives.

I'm not saying this is likely but I could see a future where the only people who consistently intentionality conceive are the wealthy and those who still adhere strictly to religious dogma.

Either way though that's not really the point. Again, you don't need a cataclysmic shift to cause a downturn.

It's pretty much like that already. The wealthy, the religious, and the very poor are the people mostly having children. People who actually want/have to take responsibility and work essentially don't have children. Or they wait until their mid 30s and have 1-2 children at most.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think there will always be people who want to have kids but I also think we're starting to tread near the point that people just don't find it financially feasible and can find other ways of enriching their lives.

I'm not saying this is likely but I could see a future where the only people who consistently intentionality conceive are the wealthy and those who still adhere strictly to religious dogma.

Either way though that's not really the point. Again, you don't need a cataclysmic shift to cause a downturn.

Yeah, I don't disagree here, but it's probably somewhat cyclical.

Originally Posted by rubecube

Hell, I had a friend tell me there's a "Together but living separately" movement or some such, which I kind of accidentally unintentionally subscribe to.

Edit: Yep, here it is https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Living_apart_together

Oh, so we need more houses if that takes off!

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just think that as people have kids and generally want more space or other amenities and things in the core become less important they move outward.

I think the numbers speak to the shift that getting an extra hour per day with your kids, who you may otherwise only seen for an hour or so with a long commute home, beats having a bonus room. Its extra weeks per year spent with your family, and new houses are further out than when our parents bought them.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I think the numbers speak to the shift that getting an extra hour per day with your kids, who you may otherwise only seen for an hour or so with a long commute home, beats having a bonus room. Its extra weeks per year spent with your family, and new houses are further out than when our parents bought them.

Infrastructure has also not kept up with population growth. You've got twice as many people on the roads now in Calgary, but the roads and public transit haven't expanded at a fast enough rate to account for that population.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

Oh, so we need more houses if that takes off!

Well not quite, but I'm sure condo developers would be happy.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Did those of you who've encountered more people who've gotten older and decided to have kids ever consider that it might be because you also have kids, and people with kids tend to hangout with other people with kids?

Exactly, i've drifted apart from many friends because they tend to have a lot more responsibilities at home now or they are too tired to go out or they are house/family poor...

Statistically speaking, the population is aging because people are have less kids... like you mentioned. That's a fact that has been discussed ad nauseum on the news lately

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Also there's a significant margin of people without kids of the r/childfree variety that obnoxiously use words like "Crotchspawn" that nobody wants to hang out with anyway.

Also an ageing InCel population in conjunction with MGTOWs.

well, I don't know many people that use those terms? and know a few people that don't have kids and don't plan to, including myself (at least right now)

I think its great that people want kids, and i am confused why anyone would use such a derogatory term... to be honest, this is the first time I've ever heard that term...

Going back to the OP, people were talking about how expensive it is to buy a house... well, add kids to that equation, and its pretty hard to do much of anything with discretionary spending...chances are people that are middle/upper middle class have to save that money to pay down their mortgage, save for the kid's education, their own RRSPs, and, if you are lucky, saving up for a once a year vacation to get away from the rat race.
.