I did some analysis and I didn't want it to get buried in another thread, because I think it's illuminating as to what the eff is wrong with the Flames this season. My personal hypothesis is that although it's quite likely that both bad goaltending and bad D are big problems, it's more goaltending that's the issue and my feet are firmly planted in that camp.
On the other side, posters are arguing that the Flames are giving up way too many quality scoring chances and that it's a team defense issue (the team itself is saying this as well, not throwing their goalies under the bus). Lots of posters are saying that the goalies didn't just wake up and forget how to play.
So here's the question that I was curious about: is the team actually giving up more chances? Or is every chance just going in because the goalies suck (with Ramo being the current culprit)?
I compared last season's "on-ice high danger scoring chances" for and against the Flames after 16 games, to the current season (source: war-on-ice.com). This is all even strength, I didn't do any analysis on special teams.
Last Season High Danger Scoring Chances Against: 152
Goals Against: 26
Ratio: 17.1%
This Season
High Danger Scoring Chances Against: 131
Goals Against: 46
Ratio: 35.1%
The team has given up 21 less high danger scoring chances this year, and let in 20 more goals. Less chances, more goals. WAY more goals. Almost double the amount of goals. Effectively other teams are capitalizing at twice the rate they were last year on high quality scoring chances.
They've also scored more this season and have had way more quality scoring chances.
Last Season
High Danger Scoring Chances For: 110
Goals For: 32
Ratio: 29.1%
This Season
High Danger Scoring Chances For: 136
Goals For: 28
Ratio: 20.6%
TL;DR offense is generating more chances, defense is giving up less chances, and Ramo is so bad he's bringing down the entire team
Prove me wrong
PS I'm sure if someone looked at special teams in this same lens they'd find that they have been much worse than last, which is also a factor that I think isn't being talked about enough. I think I've already wasted enough of my day doing this
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It's Ramo's fault that one of the most prolific goal scorers ever was left standing alone in front of the Flames net last night?
Admittedly, I don't watch every Flames game but the games I have watched the Flames defensive posture is brutal. It seems like every goal comes off a bad turn-over. It's hard to pin that all on a goalie.
I think it's even worse than your data shows. I assume that any goal that goes in counts as a 'High Danger Scoring Chance'. I'd say at least 15 goals against this year wouldn't even count as 'High Danger Scoring Chances' if they were saved. Because they should have been routine saves, but Hiller/Ramo/Ortio turned them into goals against by not making the save.
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What are the tendys' home plate save percentages, vs last year and vs league average in each year? That would probably be the most telling information.
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It's Ramo's fault that one of the most prolific goal scorers ever was left standing alone in front of the Flames net last night?
Admittedly, I don't watch every Flames game but the games I have watched the Flames defensive posture is brutal. It seems like every goal comes off a bad turn-over. It's hard to pin that all on a goalie.
What about the first goal? That's a routine save for any goalie above Midget. But Ramo turns it into a firedrill with the puck ending up in the net. 100% of the blame goes to the goalie on that one.
And there is a goal against like that every game, even the wins.
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High danger, medium danger, who cares danger (not directed to the OP) but who determines what is considered a dangerous shot? Is it adjusted for each goalie as no 2 goalies will have the same"danger levels". Is a danger shot for goalie A in the slot because he lets a ton of those in while goalie B lets a ton of point shots in.
The quicker we realize this team is lacking a starting goalie, the quicker we can move on to solving it. We can get by with sub par goaltending if our D goes back to playing amazing (such as last year) but combine shaky D with a non starting quality goalie and we have a recipe for plenty more losses.
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What about the first goal? That's a routine save for any goalie above Midget. But Ramo turns it into a firedrill with the puck ending up in the net. 100% of the blame goes to the goalie on that one.
And there is a goal against like that every game, even the wins.
A world class goalie at the other end did the exact same thing....
Look at the other 3 and he has little to no chance unless the players in front of him cover for him much better than they were (goes back to my previous post about great d and a poor goalie or a great goalie and poor d can often offset each other.
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High danger, medium danger, who cares danger (not directed to the OP) but who determines what is considered a dangerous shot? Is it adjusted for each goalie as no 2 goalies will have the same"danger levels". Is a danger shot for goalie A in the slot because he lets a ton of those in while goalie B lets a ton of point shots in.
I believe they define a high danger scoring chance as a shot attempt in the danger area (spoiler below), but to me it doesn't really matter because I'm using the same source to compare this year and last year. The point is that everyone is saying how bad the D are but they're actually allowing 16% less high quality scoring chances against, as compared to last season. And they've allowed almost double the goals, lots of which haven't even been from scoring chances as a poster points out above. It's a goaltending issue.
Spoiler!
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Maybe you should add a poll? IMO Defense hasn't been great but the Goaltending has been beyond disastrous and has had a snowball effect throughout the team.
I vote goaltending is the problem.
And the whole goaltending vs D debate came on strong after last nights game. Nobody is arguing that the D have not been the same as last year and that the goaltending has been awful. It was specifically last nights game where the debate raged on as to who was to blame for the loss.
If we are talking about the season and you did a poll, 95% of CP is going to agree it is the goaltending. If you broke it down to last nights game only I believe you get more of a 60/40 vote.
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High danger, medium danger, who cares danger (not directed to the OP) but who determines what is considered a dangerous shot? Is it adjusted for each goalie as no 2 goalies will have the same"danger levels". Is a danger shot for goalie A in the slot because he lets a ton of those in while goalie B lets a ton of point shots in.
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Last edited by CorsiHockeyLeague; 11-11-2015 at 04:21 PM.
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It's Ramo's fault that one of the most prolific goal scorers ever was left standing alone in front of the Flames net last night?
Admittedly, I don't watch every Flames game but the games I have watched the Flames defensive posture is brutal. It seems like every goal comes off a bad turn-over. It's hard to pin that all on a goalie.
For the bolded part, do you think other teams are not giving up bad turn-over's?
Sadly i watch to much hockey and i can tell you that other teams also turnover the puck in bad areas. What i have watched shows the goaltenders bailing out the mistakes on these players.
Don't get me wrong the D posturing is brutal, but the goalie is supoose to be the last line of defense. Our last line never seems to make those hard saves. If they do, its one a game. How come when i watch other goalies playing, they are bailing out their team-mates 3-4 times a game?
Also as i have said before... a soft goal is a soft goal. It does not matter where it comes from or who's fault it was before the shot is released. Got no problem having a goalie letting in one soft goal once in a while, they are human after all. I have a problem of at least one soft goal every game the flames play.
The Goaltending has been bad but its naive to say that the D has been as advertised.
For those advanced stats gurus you can also look to the corsi for our D (and entire team) and see that there are some bad actors that are giving up too much. That has nothing to do with the goaltending.
I think there is a group that thinks its a combination of poor defensive play and a group that thinks its only goaltending.
I think its a combination of subpar goaltending and poor defensive coverage and costly defensive mistakes. Look at Talbot, hes probably an average goalie that was getting padded stats in NY and is getting a bit exposed now. And of course he is getting blamed up north instead of their terrible defense.not comparing our defense to theirs because theirs is worse than bad but its a similar scenario.
That being said the goaltending still needs to be better.
Last edited by Samonadreau; 11-11-2015 at 05:21 PM.
Pretty cool analysis, I liked it Some questions that popped to mind after reading it, and by no means am I expecting someone to look this up for me, I will simply accept I'm too lazy to do it myself, but here were my thoughts:
- What does a good High Scoring Chance to goal ratio look like? For both the offence and the deffence zone elements. I can see how they compare to last year, which very much tells the story for what's happening this year, but what is good and what is average. For example, is this years Save ration terrible, or was last years just lights out. I think I know the answer, but I'd be interested to know.
- Another interesting thing to look at is how many more penalties are we taking this year? It feels like a lot more, which would likely be a black mark on the team defence, which could potentially be bleeding into worse goaltending results if they are getting warn out cause we are on the PK too much.
- Also looks as though we are generating more chances, but scoring less. The dreaded normalization of shooting % at play?
- What does a good High Scoring Chance to goal ratio look like? For both the offence and the deffence zone elements. I can see how they compare to last year, which very much tells the story for what's happening this year, but what is good and what is average. For example, is this years Save ration terrible, or was last years just lights out. I think I know the answer, but I'd be interested to know.
Last season among the 38 goaltenders that played a minimum 1400 even-strength minutes (Ramo played 1419.2):
Ramo was 17th best at 84.38% and Hiller 10th best (85.31%). Last place was Anton Khudobin at 77.43%
This season,
Ramo - 71.43
Hiller - 73.81
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Bad Goaltending vs Bad D
