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Old 05-07-2017, 08:33 AM   #81
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I don't think you're understanding the service. It wouldn't work in rural areas, but it would work in Calgary just fine. At any point in time, there would be a car within 1 minute of where you are based on density and it would come for you. Think of it exactly like uber, but with exponentially more cars available and made more convenient by algorithms having placed them in more conveniently available areas. The car picks you up and drops you off as often as you like.

For example, after a hockey game there would be thousands of cars available at a set of pre determined areas. You hop in and go. You want to go to the mall at 3pm on a wednesday, you open the app, hail a car, and within a minute it's there. All for much lower than owning a car, because that one car transports about 5-10 times as many people as 1 car owned by a single owner.
But according to the report, there would only be 10% of the vehicles on the road compared to now. He states that by 2030 in the US, 5.7 trillion passenger miles will be moved through 26 million autonomous cars. Right now there are 247 million vehicles on the road in the US. So, it would seem more like today's cab service.

The big thing for me in the report is that it relies on government banning internal combustion engines early in the adoption phase. He states that car dealerships will be completely done by 2024 and that by 2030 government will ban everyone from owning an autonomous car. We will all need to get a ride through autonomous fleets run by companies such as Uber, Google, and Apple. And the thing is, he's not just talking about the US. He is talking worldwide by 2030. I just don't see it happening by that time frame at all.
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Old 05-07-2017, 08:55 AM   #82
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The big thing for me in the report is that it relies on government banning internal combustion engines early in the adoption phase. He states that car dealerships will be completely done by 2024 and that by 2030 government will ban everyone from owning an autonomous car. We will all need to get a ride through autonomous fleets run by companies such as Uber, Google, and Apple. And the thing is, he's not just talking about the US. He is talking worldwide by 2030. I just don't see it happening by that time frame at all.

-Last car dealership shuts it's doors in 6.5 years

-You're banned from owning your own vehicle by the government in 12 years.

The timeline estimates on these are absurd.
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Old 05-07-2017, 09:16 AM   #83
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But according to the report, there would only be 10% of the vehicles on the road compared to now. He states that by 2030 in the US, 5.7 trillion passenger miles will be moved through 26 million autonomous cars. Right now there are 247 million vehicles on the road in the US. So, it would seem more like today's cab service.

The big thing for me in the report is that it relies on government banning internal combustion engines early in the adoption phase. He states that car dealerships will be completely done by 2024 and that by 2030 government will ban everyone from owning an autonomous car. We will all need to get a ride through autonomous fleets run by companies such as Uber, Google, and Apple. And the thing is, he's not just talking about the US. He is talking worldwide by 2030. I just don't see it happening by that time frame at all.
Like I said nothing but clickbait. Totally unrealistic but look at the amount of pages this thread is and how many people clicked on the article. Mission accomplished.
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Old 05-07-2017, 09:59 AM   #84
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The funny thing is, long term we likely are destroying or at least severely hampering our species with technology, while amazingly cheering it on because we get excited at convenience and entertainment that technological advancements provide.

But too many "experts" play off this fear/excitement of the unknown by trying to be the next great predictor while keeping the timelines close enough to capture the attention and imagination of a now distracted society that is only wowed for minutes by even the most incredible news, discovery or advancement.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:15 AM   #85
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Can someone explain why ride share is expected to become the norm?

I find the idea kind of appalling tbh. I am fully on-board with getting an autonomous vehicle when the time is right, sure. Read and browse CP instead of driving, why not? But I don't see why this equates to becoming some communal hippy who just blindly hops in anonymous vehicle #64235 like it's a shopping cart. I still want my own stuff.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:15 AM   #86
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I just don't know who to believe, exhaustive Stanford Study, or the ruminations on a hockey message board from a guy who hangs drywall.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:17 AM   #87
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Can someone explain why ride share is expected to become the norm?

I find the idea kind of appalling tbh. I am fully on-board with getting an autonomous vehicle when the time is right, sure. Read and browse CP instead of driving, why not? But I don't see why this equates to becoming some communal hippy who just blindly hops in anonymous vehicle #64235 like it's a shopping cart. I still want my own stuff.
People take the bus and CTrain every day in Calgary.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:21 AM   #88
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People take the bus and CTrain every day in Calgary.
not my question. the implication here seems to be, car ownership will drop because autonomous vehicles.

people who own cars will suddenly stop owning them because the driving is done autonomously?

I don't share my roomba with my neighborhood.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:36 AM   #89
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Think of it as I posted above. What's the biggest cost to Uber? People.

Remove people, increase capacity and scale and it's quite cheap. Your car sits for over 90% of it's life (higher for most people), yet still costs you for insurance, cost of the vehicle itself, maintenance, tires, fuel, etc. If you cut insurance down by 90% (autonomous cars would likely reduce accidents by at least this amount), split the rest (excluding fuel) by the other 9 people riding the car. You also don't have to pay for the driver. That $9 uber ride now has a cost of a couple bucks at most.
The cost spilt depends on whether the maintenance costs of a car are driven by per km or per day. In my opinion most costs are driven by a per km affect. Therefore 9 people using 1 car will not be dramatically more expensive than just owning your own self driving car. The capital cost would be the main difference.

The other break down in this model is rush hour. Everyone needs a car in rush hour so for this model to work you'd need enough cars to service peak demand therefore 80% of the cars on unused for 20Hrs per day.

So your back to this service only working for those who are using transit or bikes to work or working from home.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:55 AM   #90
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Can someone explain why ride share is expected to become the norm?

I find the idea kind of appalling tbh. I am fully on-board with getting an autonomous vehicle when the time is right, sure. Read and browse CP instead of driving, why not? But I don't see why this equates to becoming some communal hippy who just blindly hops in anonymous vehicle #64235 like it's a shopping cart. I still want my own stuff.
You know, you can make your point without making up a bunch of nonsense. You don't like the idea? Good for you. Remember though, you speak for exactly one person, just like everyone else. And different people like different things, and have different needs.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:03 AM   #91
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You know, you can make your point without making up a bunch of nonsense. You don't like the idea? Good for you. Remember though, you speak for exactly one person, just like everyone else. And different people like different things, and have different needs.
Geez, Rouge, you've been very ornery in your responses lately. You use to be so chill and funny. All he did was lay out his own personal anecdote and question why it's excepted to become the nor, aka looking for other opinions and facts.

That's mostly what discussion boards are for, otherwise we'd just link a few studies and shut up with our own anecdotes and feelings, but I don't think that'd make a great board.

His words were a little hyperbolic and could be challenged a little, I guess it's just more that I remember you always being so chill, it's kind of jumped out at me a few times, recently.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:04 AM   #92
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I just don't know who to believe, exhaustive Stanford Study, or the ruminations on a hockey message board from a guy who hangs drywall.
Who is this directed at?
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:07 AM   #93
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I just don't know who to believe, exhaustive Stanford Study, or the ruminations on a hockey message board from a guy who hangs drywall.
It's not an exhaustive Stanford study. It's his private consulting firm who did the study. Of which his partner is an investor in tech companies. He just happens to teach some online courses at Stanford Continuing Education Studies. Hell, just look at some his sources for the report. His own book that he wrote a couple years ago. I think I'll stick with the drywall guy on this one. Like EE said, clickbait.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:07 AM   #94
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Where are all these vehicles today being built with gas engines going to go in 2030? People just going to drive them to the dump and hitch a ride back with an automated electrical car?

Or the more realistic thing will happen and they'll sell their vehicles and some other person will continue to fill up the engine with that sweet, sweet gas.

Until EV can be had for cheap, it won't matter and it won't be close to 2030, that's for sure.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:11 AM   #95
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Who is this directed at?
Flash Walken, Tinordi and Psycnet are above the board and post in that manner, leaving us peons to figure out which dumb, Alberta redneck is being disparaged.

They do it this way so that the offender is shamed, but also so that the rest of us look inside ourselves and our own posts to make sure we don't become what they despise. They're guiding us through a critical thinking exercise for our own benefit and we should thank them.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:12 AM   #96
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I think everyone owning automatic cars can be a reality at some point in the future.

I'm not so certain about TAAS, until we can build our density up to New York levels and regulate cars out of existence (high ownership costs/fees and prohibitively expensive parking).

None of this will be by 2030 though, I'm quite certain about that one.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:15 AM   #97
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I think everyone owning automatic cars can be a reality at some point in the future.

I'm not so certain about TAAS, until we can build our density up to New York levels and regulate cars out of existence (high ownership costs/fees and prohibitively expensive parking).

None of this will be by 2030 though, I'm quite certain about that one.
Well, I don't know, FlashWalken has already explained to us plebs which study he believes and therefore which study any smart person would believe, while likely not reflecting on any subsequent posts that offer contrary findings, which he always begs us to do to become smarter people.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:32 AM   #98
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People take the bus and CTrain every day in Calgary.
In other words, inexpensive, public transportation is already available to everyone.

And yet some people still drive their own cars.

Neanderthals, amirite?
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:44 AM   #99
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The projection is that the cars are autonomous, electric and provided a-la-carte
By whom?

Some of you are attempting to make this argument that we are all going to drive around in shared vehicles, at a tiny fraction of the cost of having our own vehicle.

Show me the model. Who is supplying these vehicles to us? How are these vehicles going to be financed? How does everyone get to work at roughly the same time?

In order for this type of plan to make any real progress, the whole idea of people working 'normal hours' and 'at the office' has to change. It requires that everyone can work whenever and wherever they want.

And we are definitely moving in that direction. But not in 13 years. We're talking two generations here.

The basic premises are valid. But the timelines are so far out to lunch that they are laughable.
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Old 05-07-2017, 11:51 AM   #100
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Great news for electricity producers though.

Let those western bastards freeze in the dark! (I kid)
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