Canadian dollar vs US

[EldrickOnIce]

Can anyone offer good information for projections on short term value of Canadian dollar, or is it simply mostly guessing?
We are moving to the US for work this summer, with temporary housing available for up to 6 months, during which time we will transfer funds from sale of previous home to US funds and purchase a home there.
Proceeds from that sale currently invested in a Canadian interest account, but transferring CDN to US funds at the right time could result in far more significant gains. The ~3 cent rise in the loonie over the last three weeks has been very nice, but when does it stop?

I expect if someone could actually predict this with any real accuracy, they already be wealthier than the average top 5% CPer.

Thanks for any suggestions

[mrkajz44]

Personally I think any projection is simply just guessing. No one really knows what is going to happen with the exchange rate. My best advice would be not to worry about the FX rate and just convert the money from CAD to USD when you need it. You may win a bit or lose a bit, but that just how it goes. Remove the stress from trying to time it correctly.

[OMG!WTF!]

I think a rate hike has already been priced in. Everyone is expecting a hike so CAD has already reacted to that. So I don't see a big reaction if we do get a hike. But I suspect if we don't see a hike it will hurt cad.

[Kjesse]

Given the amount of money you're likely dealing with, I'd phone someone at a company like CalForex, they'd probably openly provide their projections and their business is mostly US-Canada currency changes on merchant accounts. Also, they'll let you hedge for certainty where they take the risk if you want certainty. Even if they don't tell you their projections, how they propose your hedge will signal their projections.

[DeluxeMoustache]

It's a couple of years old, but here is an article discussing correlation between oil price and USD CAD

https://news.ubc.ca/2015/04/16/is-th...petrocurrency/

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I think a rate hike has already been priced in. Everyone is expecting a hike so CAD has already reacted to that. So I don't see a big reaction if we do get a hike. But I suspect if we don't see a hike it will hurt cad.

Agreed, there's probably more risk to the downside. As of this morning a rate hike is 75% priced in. As we move closer to July 12th, all else being equal the CAD should appreciate as these expectations solidify. That said in the lower probability event that the BoC doesn't hike than, the CAD would likely depreciate much more than it would appreciate from this point if they do hike.



*This opinion is merely for entertainment purposes only and should not be mistaken as actual analysis or advice

[Flash Walken]

He doesn't know, but Cowboy89 is my financial planner.

[red sky]

The so called experts were caught off guard by Poloz's hawkish comments recently. Prior to that I think the consensus was for USDCAD to continue to appreciate, up to $1.40 even. If the experts can't get it right, then it is best to just accept that in some cases you will benefit and others you may not.

[troutman]

[MoneyGuy]

Any projections are just guesswork. No one knows.

[Northendzone]

if you were part of the illuminati, the rothschilds, the church of scientology or one the the group of 7 richest sultans in the world - not only would you know, you would get to decide on the exchange rate

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by troutman

That looks about right, us trending to a 1:5 currency conversion. Thanks Justin.

[snootchiebootchies]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Any projections are just guesswork. No one knows.

It is just guesswork but technical analysis would tell you that the Canadian dollar will likely depreciate from here in the short term. The Canadian dollar is trading at 10-month lows compared to the US dollar, and it looks like the trend of higher highs (against the US dollar) is about to break.

[oilyfan]

Originally Posted by snootchiebootchies

It is just guesswork but technical analysis would tell you that the Canadian dollar will likely depreciate from here in the short term. The Canadian dollar is trading at 10-month lows compared to the US dollar, and it looks like the trend of higher highs (against the US dollar) is about to break.

That makes no sense, it's trading at 10 month lows so it will break lower?

I think (and guess) that CAD will break higher. Macro indicators are pointing up, Canadian growth and interest rates are headed higher whereas US growth is flat. What's keeping CAD down are currency traders who see downside risk in the anti trade talk, lumber and dairy dispute and the housing picture.

[snootchiebootchies]

Originally Posted by oilyfan

That makes no sense, it's trading at 10 month lows so it will break lower?

I think (and guess) that CAD will break higher. Macro indicators are pointing up, Canadian growth and interest rates are headed higher whereas US growth is flat. What's keeping CAD down are currency traders who see downside risk in the anti trade talk, lumber and dairy dispute and the housing picture.

I think interest rates heading higher is already built in into the price. The charts I'm reading shows pretty strong resistance at the $1.29-$1.30 USD/CAD, which is where we are at now. But I'm hardly a technical analysis expert.

[Zarley]

I took a currency trading course in undergrad and it was a semester of guesswork. Forex is the most volatile area of finance. I would split your funds into several tranches and transfer periodically over the next 6 months.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Zarley

I took a currency trading course in undergrad and it was a semester of guesswork. Forex is the most volatile area of finance. I would split your funds into several tranches and transfer periodically over the next 6 months.

This is probably the best advice. It keeps you from kicking yourself that you didn't execute the binary decision that is basically a guess in the correct way.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

This is probably the best advice. It keeps you from kicking yourself that you didn't execute the binary decision that is basically a guess in the correct way.

If anyone could ever figure it out reliably, they'd be loaded. Currency trading is very easy to do, but very hard to do well.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

You're probably all over it already, but shop the hell out that transaction.

I'm not sure anything carries more padded margins, hidden fees, and misleading pricing than cross border FX transfers.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

You're probably all over it already, but shop the hell out that transaction.

I'm not sure anything carries more padded margins, hidden fees, and misleading pricing than cross border FX transfers.

Run a Norbert gambit instead of paying translation fees.