In the end though, the Bloomberg article is based off assumptions as well. You can find articles counter to there opinion, outlining the difficulties with batteries, and mass market expansion:
I stand by my opinion that without a revolution in tech, evolving the current battery technology is not going to be feasible at a scale necessary to replace significant portions of the gas market.
Thanks for that article - I find that the Gawker (RIP) sites were/are good at being critical but fair. Again, this represents a possible future outcome that may or may not come to be, but does represent the obstacles to achieving the Bloomberg outcome.
Thanks for that article - I find that the Gawker (RIP) sites were/are good at being critical but fair. Again, this represents a possible future outcome that may or may not come to be, but does represent the obstacles to achieving the Bloomberg outcome.
the availability of cobalt seems to be a huge issue that needs discussion if the majority of it is only available from the congo.
I can see there being a premium for a vehicle that doesn't contain "blood cobalt"
Not for a full charge, 30 minutes from a super charger gets you about 270km on a Tesla
Yeah, and at times that seems like it would be terrible. I already don't like stopping for gas, but make that into a full half hour and it's pretty much a deal breaker for me. That and electric vehicles sound amazing...until something goes wrong and you're just entirely stuck and need a tow. Of course there is only one system that can fail, so that seems better, but when it fails it means complete failure.
Of course there is only one system that can fail, so that seems better, but when it fails it means complete failure.
There are plenty of things that can go wrong with an ICE that leave you stranded. I agree with your other points, but this seems like a bit of a stretch.
Yeah, and at times that seems like it would be terrible. I already don't like stopping for gas, but make that into a full half hour and it's pretty much a deal breaker for me. That and electric vehicles sound amazing...until something goes wrong and you're just entirely stuck and need a tow. Of course there is only one system that can fail, so that seems better, but when it fails it means complete failure.
That's a strange argument. Petrol vehicles are more complicated with many more moving parts. But individual components of electric vehicles can also fail without it being all or nothing as well. Without knowing the stats, I can't really be sure one is much better than the other but I can't imagine a big difference.
There are plenty of things that can go wrong with an ICE that leave you stranded. I agree with your other points, but this seems like a bit of a stretch.
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Originally Posted by Fuzz
That's a strange argument. Petrol vehicles are more complicated with many more moving parts. But individual components of electric vehicles can also fail without it being all or nothing as well. Without knowing the stats, I can't really be sure one is much better than the other but I can't imagine a big difference.
It's definitely me being caught up in anecdotal evidence, but my brother bought an electric motorcycle and this happened. I was super envious in the beginning, but now not as much! With a gas bike you could limp it home or to help, but with the electric you have no option aside from a tow. Like I say its purely anecdotal and could be just bad luck...hard to know for sure.
It's definitely me being caught up in anecdotal evidence, but my brother bought an electric motorcycle and this happened. I was super envious in the beginning, but now not as much! With a gas bike you could limp it home or to help, but with the electric you have no option aside from a tow. Like I say its purely anecdotal and could be just bad luck...hard to know for sure.
I don't see the logic here. Anything that you can limp home with, generally doesn't exist in an electric vehicle. (Brakes and tires exculded#
If it wasn't there in the first place, you won't have to limp home with it. EV's have fewer part so break down can only be a serious issue.
I manage a fleet of 18 vehicles. The stuff that we limp home is ancillary items like: leaky water pump, starter going bad, spark plug blown out...
The stuff that needed a tow: seized engine, transmission failure, ignition computer module, oil cooler leak, brake failure, oil pan leak
You will still have major systems fail in an electric vehicle.... But the advantage I see is that we won't be fixing as many things.
Also, a 350km range is fine for a taxi or delivery service purpose.. or even commuting to work.
I asked my interviewer what Kodak thought of the rise of digital; she replied it was not a concern, that film would be around for decades. I looked at her like she was nuts. But she wasn’t nuts, she was just deep in the Kodak culture, a world where film had always been dominant, and always would be.
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You can't limp home without fuel. Call me when you can run your gas engines from the sun.
From the roof for extra power
120W, so on a sunny day if you stop in the morning by the evening you might have 5 km of added range. On a cloudy day or in the winter, the added weight and drag just reduces range.
Quote:
At home for full charge (check out his other ride at the end)
Only if the car is home during the day; otherwise you need a home battery and that further increases cost. And in Alberta, whose electricity system hasn't been sabotaged in the name of green ideology (at least yet), grid electricity is so cheap that solar with net-metering will never pay back, let alone solar+battery.
Last edited by accord1999; 07-21-2017 at 10:44 AM.
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120W, so on a sunny day if you stop in the morning by the evening you might have 5 km of added range. On a cloudy day or in the winter, the added weight and drag just reduces range.
And he said it was just to charge the lead acid battery, not the main one. Which makes it mostly useless.
You can't limp home without fuel. Call me when you can run your gas engines from the sun.
,
I don't understand your point. Who the ########## runs out of fuel? Morons?
Stupid people?
Who?
When we had propane vehicles, we had even higher tow bills because Gas station attendants didn't know how to properly refuel propane... And the gas guage that's on a propane vehicle is notoriously unreliable.
I would take electric in a heartbeat over propane.
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Haha yep, you have to bite your nails and fingers and almost swallow your arm to get what's rightfully yours but they're just going to willfully hand over a 90% discount...yeah right.
I suspect auto makers will insure early self driving cars as it is their tech that is responsible and conventional insurers won't have the data the car companies do and don't have the incentive to take risk. So once the vehicles become ubiquitous I suspect the current insurance model is drastically changed.
Also insurance is a competitive if a company can make money on a cost plus 10% model they will.
What's funny about the Kodak annecdote is that they invented the digital camera in 1975 and were bankrupt by 2013. If we are following the Kodak model ICE should already be gone.
Haha yep, you have to bite your nails and fingers and almost swallow your arm to get what's rightfully yours but they're just going to willfully hand over a 90% discount...yeah right.
Supply and demand. If an insurer can make more by offering steep discounts, they will.
I suspect auto makers will insure early self driving cars as it is their tech that is responsible and conventional insurers won't have the data the car companies do and don't have the incentive to take risk. So once the vehicles become ubiquitous I suspect the current insurance model is drastically changed.
Also insurance is a competitive if a company can make money on a cost plus 10% model they will.
What's funny about the Kodak annecdote is that they invented the digital camera in 1975 and were bankrupt by 2013. If we are following the Kodak model ICE should already be gone.
The Kodak story is a fascinating one, but is nothing like the electric vs ICE situation.
Kodak OWNED the film industry and invented digital. They felt bullet proof and they both misread and underestimated the digital market.
With energy, there are literally thousands of participants and almost limitless opportunity. It isn't like there are people sitting on something they believe they control.
The debate in energy is about the rate of change. Some believe every promise and that adoption will be immediate. Others believe that the new technologies haven't solved as much as claimed and/or that adoption will be slower.
It is very common for the early adopter crowd to play the 'head in the sand' card, but this situation is nothing like digital film at all.
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I think the point of the comparison with Kodak is that technology isn't always incrementally improved within one paradigm, sometimes one utterly dominant technological solution is completely replaced by another in a short period of time. It's also apt because this quick replacement is much more likely if the technology in question has large support costs to use, as the cost of film and developing did for cameras, and gas and maintenance do for ICE-based cars.
If you can reduce the cost of ownership of a car by a few hundred a month with an electric, almost everyone will change over, and you could indeed have a large majority of electrics on the road by 2030. This is especially likely as the operation of an electric is pretty much like a combustion-engined car; you press one pedal to make it go, you press another to make it stop, and you turn the wheel to steer it. Despite it being utterly different technology underneath, it operates the same way for the end user - again, much like anyone who could operate a film camera could operate a digital one.
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