Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 16

[TheIronMaiden]

Maybe this is derailing but this might be an interesting time to consider this. Of the five upcoming RFA’s participating in this poll:

Morrison, Kenney
Rittich, David
Culkin, Ryan
Kulak, Brett
Hathaway, Garnet

Only 1 has cracked the top 15.


Of the RFA’s let go this year Only Bill Arnold cracked the top 15

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...hlight=Ranking

Will our upcoming RFA’s suffer a similar fate or has our prospect pool gotten deeper?


http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/CGY?year=2017

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I consider both. And also likelihood of making it.

A small, 18 year old 2nd round pick has more upside than Hathaway, but Hathaway is already an NHLer, and he is a very good 4th liner.

Conversely, the 2nd rounder has a 10-20% chance of being an NHLer.

Sure, if he makes it, a top 6er is far more valuable. But I factor down that value by the probability of making it.

Kylington: has shown progress, and sublime skating skills. So his stock is very high.

Fox is a 5'10" 18 year old. I look at his value as a top 6er x 10% (likelihood). He has to show me some progression before he's worth more than Hathaway in my mind.

He is?

he has a total of 14 games on his resume...how do you come to the conclusion that is very good?

Dont get me wrong as i like what i saw at the end of the year but that was garbage time for the whole team and there was little to no pressure on any of them to draw conclusions from.

I would say that with a new coaching staff and lots of competition for lower line spots being acquired, he is at best a 50/50 guy to stick all season.

Not meaning to derail things here but it seems like there a few guys that we all need to see a lot more of before anointing them anything but fringe NHL'ers.

[VaporTrail]

So finally - Fox at #16. Shame if you ask me.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

He is?

he has a total of 14 games on his resume...how do you come to the conclusion that is very good?

Dont get me wrong as i like what i saw at the end of the year but that was garbage time for the whole team and there was little to no pressure on any of them to draw conclusions from.

I would say that with a new coaching staff and lots of competition for lower line spots being acquired, he is at best a 50/50 guy to stick all season.

Not meaning to derail things here but it seems like there a few guys that we all need to see a lot more of before anointing them anything but fringe NHL'ers.

I think he is (my opinion).

I liked what I saw in Stockton, and I liked what I saw of him on the Flames. He brings much more to the 4th line than Jooris, for example.

A lot of people would say that he was better than Bouma last year, who is a clear NHLer. I personally think that Bouma just had an off year, but the point remains.

[JoelOtto29]

I voted Pollock. He’s big and plays a power game. Upward progression each year. Interested to see how he does in Stockton.

[GranteedEV]

I agree that Hathaway is an NHLer. Whether he can beat NHL goalies with that NERF wrister remains to be seen but his overall game is NHL level. The skating, the defensive positioning, the forechecking, the strength on the puck, he is not only a good fourth liner but almost an ideal one.

However I still have Ollas-Mattsson, Dube, and Fox ahead of him. In fairness, I think that speaks more to the quality of our prospect depth than any knock on Hathaway. I just think the upside on these three is too high.

The next tier for me is Hathaway and Phillips. The guy with the high chance and the minimal upside and the guy with the extremely low chance and the maximum upside.

[Gaskal]

Hathaway should be a solid NHL 4th liner - however, I think what you see is what you're gonna get with him, and that's why I ranked him much lower than the others.

[doctajones428]

Pollock for the (1) time in a row

[Point Blank]

The results so far show why the loser of runoffs don't win the next round immediately.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Point Blank

The results so far show why the loser of runoffs don't win the next round immediately.

Not at this point. The last couple of run offs have featured players who each received less than 1/4 of the total votes cast. It shouldn't be a surprise that well more than half of posters have other players on their own lists.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Will likely be on the big club come the season opener and it his spot to lose at this point.

Will he? I dunno... I think he's got maybe a 50% to make the team out of camp.

[MikeMc]

Voted Carroll, I just really like his game and have hopes for him (no real other reason). Also Hathaway should either be off the list as an NHLer or way higher on this list. I'm saying he's an NHLer (and please replace Bollig).

Shiney new toys get alot of love as usual.

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Will he? I dunno... I think he's got maybe a 50% to make the team out of camp.

3 posters (EV, Enoch and myself) believe he is an NHL'er with a spot to lose at this point.

I'm not saying he remains, as someone younger and better could take his spot. But as of now, his most recent action was in the NHL and was consistently in the lineup to finish off the season.

Nothing is a sure bet, but I feel it is his spot to lose. For this reason, I am very confused how a player in the NHL is still considered a prospect if he's made the jump full-time.

I get that he could as easily be playing in the A this season, but that would be because someone took his spot or he stopped doing what got him there. Neither would, in my opinion, indicate he's back to being a "prospect".

My whole point is, I don't think he belongs on that list is all.. I'm just making conversation over a really boring off season.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Hathaway's grouped in with a plethora of wingers looking for a spot this fall. He definitely doesn't have a spot to lose.

[Vulcan]

I see two spots open with Tkachuk, Shinkaruk, Vey, Hathaway as favourites and maybe a couple of vets are also vulnerable. I'd guess Tkachuk and Shinkaruk need to win regular positions while the others could take on the 13th and 14 spots.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think Hathaway is a favorite to push a vet off the 4th line. I don't think he is penciled-into the lineup just yet. I do think he plays a lot this year, but he is still very much a bubble player. I really like him and feel he will become a good 4th liner for the next few seasons at least on the Flames, but there are other guys who I still think have a pretty chance of cracking the lineup and being more valuable pieces.

People just vote how they feel is right. I personally can't vote a prospect (even with a good look at the NHL the prior season) who has 4th line upside and say he is definitively better than a prospect who has less of a chance to make the show, but has top 6 or top 4 potential.

I wouldn't trade a Fox (who just broke a points record for defencemen), or any of the goalies who all have shown varying degrees of promise, or even a guy like Tuulola who could very well become a better scoring Hathaway capable of playing 3rd line.

I can understand how some like to rank according to the percentages of a prospect making it, and one bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, but I don't personally subscribe to that notion. I do factor in how likely a prospect is to play in the NHL given what I have seen and know about a prospect, but it means little difference to me if a player is ready this year vs 2 years from now. I am ranking based on who I think will be the most valuable players for the Flames long-term, and though I really love guys like Hathaway (I really do!), I can't say with a straight face that they are not easily replaceable.

Now, if Hathaway had some softer mitts, he would shoot up my rankings so fast, but I just think he is rather easily replaceable. Glad he is in the organization, but wouldn't lose sleep if he wasn't re-signed.

Guys like Ollas-Mattsson, Dube, Fox, Lindstrom, and a few others are all ahead of him for me, as I think that even though they may be slightly longer shots to make the NHL, they will have a much greater impact on helping the Flames win if they do.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I can understand how some like to rank according to the percentages of a prospect making it, and one bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, but I don't personally subscribe to that notion. I do factor in how likely a prospect is to play in the NHL given what I have seen and know about a prospect, but it means little difference to me if a player is ready this year vs 2 years from now. I am ranking based on who I think will be the most valuable players for the Flames long-term, and though I really love guys like Hathaway (I really do!), I can't say with a straight face that they are not easily replaceable.

That's how I see it too.

Each NHL club sheds 1/4 of their roster most summers, bottom half players are moving around all the time. You just don't need them to work out as prospects as much as starting goaltenders, top forwards or top 4 D

[Conroy4Mayor]

Am I the only one bothered by the fact that fans have chosen three goalies in the Flames top 15 prospects? That suggests to me that the scouts need to do a better job finding decent skaters.

Has been Fox for me since round 10.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Conroy4Mayor

Am I the only one bothered by the fact that fans have chosen three goalies in the Flames top 15 prospects? That suggests to me that the scouts need to do a better job finding decent skaters.



Has been Fox for me since round 10.

Some of this has to do with the fact that the Flames have three top prospects that each graduated in their first pro season in successive years, but I don't see how this should be any cause for concern. Beyond Gillies, it looks to me more like the fan base is split between Parsons and McDonald on which is the #2 goalie in the system. This is more a product of the selection process in these polls.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Though Schneider doesn't have the pedigree of Parsons or Macdonald, I have been very impressed with him and think he is in that mix as well.