Better rebuild situation 2013 or 2024?

[Vinny01]

Just like in 2012-2013 the flames entered the year with a new coach and a couple of free agent adds to help push the flames to a playoff spot. It was a lockout shortened season and it went poorly for the Flames. Iggy was in his last year and the org was forced to enter the rebuild they tried to avoid for 3-4 years prior. Iginla controlled his destiny which severely limited the Flames return in trade. For some reason they felt they needed to immediately dump Bouwmeester even though he had another season and they got very little for him as well. Kipper opted to retire.

What they had in the system?
On the roster they had guys under 25 in Brodie and Backlund
Gio was approaching 30 but was the clear successor to the captaincy
Sven Baertschi was the top prospect but they also had this Gaudreau kid who was starting to look like a legit top prospect
Feaster did a terrible job of getting assets but he did clear the cap sheet so it was clean when Burke and Treliving came in to continue the build. The team entered their first rebuild draft with 3x 1st including 6th overall but no 2nd because that was moved a year earlier for Cammalleri. The team hits on the 6th pick with Monahan but that was it for the draft and by Christmas in Monahan’s first year Feaster was fired. We all know how it went and the team would make the playoffs early and then start a run of in and out for a near decade. They won a round twice and the division twice. They had a franchise player who should have succeeded Giordano as captain but he didn’t want to stay and the team decided to double down and chase some win now pieces which brings us to today

2013: strengths. - superstar prospect in the system, clean cap sheet, solid top D pair already established, some decent veterans
Weaknesses- very few legit prospects, got very little for their expiring veterans

2023-2024: this team is once again in a spot where they must rebuild. They had a massive disappointing season where many blamed the coach for a bad vibe and hoped that running it back would work. They lose their top 2 drafted stars from the last rebuild and add Huberdeau and Kadri (using a 1st to dump the other top name of the previous rebuild). Clearly these moves were terrible and Treliving decided he wasn’t going to stick around. The flames have Conroy as the guy who will tear it down and get to build it up as opposed to the last time when Feaster did the tear down and Treliving did the build. This team appears to have another late round star in the system with Dustin Wolf. They currently have 4 strong pending UFA’s they can deal for hopefully a strong return. They have all their picks. Recent first rounders Zary, Pelletier, Coronato all look like they will play and Honzek is also a strong prospect. Biggest issue is the long term deals for Huberdeau and Kadri. I can see a situation where Kadri plays his way into being traded but Huberdeau is arguably the absolute worst contract in the league. This team also doesn’t really have a Brodie or Backlund but Andersson is 27 and Weegar is still solid. I don’t think these guys are the level of Brodano but at least they still have a strong top pair to build with. Andersson might be their best trade chip

Strengths: all their picks, better prospect system, good assets to sel, 2 good D locked for a few years
Weaknesses: boat anchor contracts, outside of Wolf no potential superstars in the system. Lack of guys in the 23-26 age bracket

I am curious from you all which situation is better? I guess it will be more clear once Conroy makes these deals to bring in futures. I thought the Flames did a good job of building a competitive team in relatively short order once they moved on from the Iggy-Kipper Era. I might be a fool but I think they can turn this thing around in a similar fashion (drafting high in 3 drafts) but a lot will depend on how they do with their rental assets and how their draft picks pan out.

Personally I think Conroy has a decent setup to start a solid rebuild. I think there are better players in the system and I have more confidence in the scouts now than I did 10 years ago. Which situation do you think is better?

[Domoic]

Fun question to ponder.

One key difference you did not mention - and perhaps the biggest of all - is Conroy. What is the confidence level of him in charge of a rebuild.

[Vinny01]

I was thinking last night if a GM looked at both situations which would be more appealing. I wonder if that Huberdeau contract is such a hindrance or would having bare cupboards be worse?

[ForeverFlameFan]

We are in a better situation to reTOOL and get this team going. We already have a few great prospects in the farm. I don't think I could have said the same a little over a decade ago. It also wasn't our franchise player we are trading; we're trading pending UFAs that have some good value. And, we have a GM who although can only be judged on one trade he has made so far, what he has done in my POV is nothing but great for this fanbase. He isn't locking down any of the UFAs and knows asset management is key for us to a) rebuild our prospect pool and b) have cap space to utilize. He's also playing the youngsters, who are playing great and making decisions easier on him to remove the veterans that won't be here long term.

My mentality is we're in a state of reTOOLing the team abd reBUILDing the prospect pool. We should be happy our prospect pool is bare; it means a good chunk of them are graduating or going to be graduating. Grab picks from these pending UFAs and restock.

[DeluxeMoustache]

2013 has to be better. Clean cap slate, a found gem in Gaudreau, basically all upside
Plus a coach with pedigree, unafraid to change the residue of the country club culture demand work ethic

Now your elephant in the room is how to get value out of 2 guys making 18 million dollars over the next 6 years

I think it’s a GM’s nightmare here if the guys getting paid continue to underdeliver

[Robbob]

I think I lean towards 2013, but barely. I think having Gaudreau in their back pocket while drafting a healthy Monahan was a decent start. In 2013 they struck out after Monahan. Getting Burakovsky (picked after Poirier) and Hartman (two picks after Klimchuck) would have set this team up.

Ask this question again after the season is over and I might switch. It all depends on what they get for their UFAs and what they can add to the prospect pool. I do think from a defensive perspective, they got some good prospects with Morin and Poirier. Even Kuznetsov is intriguing just because he is a bigger body that can skate. Zary, Pelletier, Coronato, and Honzek maybe not be Gaudreau caliber, but probably a better foundation as a whole considering in 2013 it was just Gaudreau. The big key for the 2023-24 rebuild is Wolf. At the end of the day he could be just as impactful for the franchise as Gaudreau was.

Cap wise, 2013 they couldn't leverage cap space since not as many teams were in cap jail.

[Bonded]

They can go into this rebuild with more assets if they make good trades on the UFAs this year and next. Who knows they might have a Gaudreau in the system. The Huberdreau contract is a stinker but they will be through year 5 of that contract before ELCs start ticking in a big way if they hit in the next few drafts.

The biggest elephant in the room on a tear down rebuild is if the Panthers fall apart this year or next and finish bottom ten.

[redmile04]

2013ish really worked out in terms of prospects acquired/drafted throughout the rebuild- Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Fox, Bennett. Obviously half of them wanted out/left. An injury and someone who just couldnt succeed here but the way the rebuild was done IMO was good, imagine all those players were still here.

[Vinny01]

5 years of 1st round picks leading into the rebuild

2012- Jankowski 21st was drafted as a project player that needed years to make an impact. Sold as a top player if the org remained patient. They waited 5 years to get him in the show. He was okay peaking at 17 goals but fairly meh player overall
2023- Honzek 16th was an older player drafted who can turn pro next year. Team is excited but he is hurt in his draft+1 season

2011- Baertschi 13th. Highly skilled prospect that had a monster draft +1 year scoring 2ppg and lighting it up with 3 goals in 5 games on an emergency recall. He fizzled super quick and ended up busting. At least the flames capitalized and got the Andersson pick for him in a deal
2022- NO PICK (toffoli trade)

2010- NO PICK (Jokinen trade)
2021- Coronato 12th he looks to be a legit top 6 winger prospect. He had to be sent down but has been really strong on the Wranglers. He will be back later this year

2009- Erixon 23rd. Appeared to be a good prospect but threatened to re-enter the draft rather than sign with the Flames do Calgary was able to trade him for a couple of 2nds and a prospect. Erixon ended up busting
2020- Connor Zary 24th. Bright spot of the Flames season with 6pts in 6 games and looks like a legit NHL forward. Really nice numbers in his last few games as a pro

2008- Neimsz 25th overall. 15 NHL games a complete bust
2019- Pelletier 26th overall. An injury derailed what should have been his rookie year. Great numbers in the A so hopes are he can still be a player

[Vinny01]

Is Wolf the Gaudreau of this rebuild? Undersized late round pick who looks like a superstar in every league he has played in?

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

I think you have to think 2013 was the better starting point for a couple of the reason you mentioned:

1. While Feaster botched the return on expiring assets (that could have been huge) as you mentioned, there were no boat anchors lying around holding us back once Tre and Burke came in. That is not the case right now, with the Huberdeau and Kadri gifts prime to haunt us. I actually think the Kadri situation has a chance to work out ok.

- To counter my own point, despite the two anchors, Conroy does have some more appealing assets to move before year end than Feaster did in 2013. Depending on return and how Conroy does, that could be a point in favour of today.

2. Gaudreau - he was found money. Essentially a bonus Top 5 pick ready in waiting in the org. Can't under estimate how key having him be like getting an impact extra top 5 pick was. Easy to say that in hindsight, and to the point just made, maybe one of our other youngsters already here will become that, but Gaudreau was a nice accelerator in 2013.

[Kolsch]

I would much rather be in this position than 2013.

My reasoning for that is simply the number of pieces currently in the system. Poirier, Coronato, Wolf, all seem like they could end up as good players not to mention Zary, Pospisil, and others currently making the jump and the number of other players recently drafted that have high ceilings like Honzek, Morin, and Suniev.

If we can bottom out hard, get lucky at the draft, and find some elite players like the top 3 of the 2023 draft I like our chances much better for some long term success.

Some have been quick to jump on Conroy over the Toffoli trade, but regardless of how that trade works out, I think its great that Conroy got to practice trading using one of lesser chips. I'm glad his first trade wasn't Lindholm or Hanifin, because you have to think he learned some lessons with his first official trade as GM.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

5 years of 1st round picks leading into the rebuild

2012- Jankowski 21st was drafted as a project player that needed years to make an impact. Sold as a top player if the org remained patient. They waited 5 years to get him in the show. He was okay peaking at 17 goals but fairly meh player overall
2023- Honzek 16th was an older player drafted who can turn pro next year. Team is excited but he is hurt in his draft+1 season

2011- Baertschi 13th. Highly skilled prospect that had a monster draft +1 year scoring 2ppg and lighting it up with 3 goals in 5 games on an emergency recall. He fizzled super quick and ended up busting. At least the flames capitalized and got the Andersson pick for him in a deal
2022- NO PICK (toffoli trade)

2010- NO PICK (Jokinen trade)
2021- Coronato 12th he looks to be a legit top 6 winger prospect. He had to be sent down but has been really strong on the Wranglers. He will be back later this year

2009- Erixon 23rd. Appeared to be a good prospect but threatened to re-enter the draft rather than sign with the Flames do Calgary was able to trade him for a couple of 2nds and a prospect. Erixon said need up busting
2020- Connor Zary 24th. Bright spot of the Flames season with 6pts in 6 games and looks like a legit NHL forward. Really nice numbers in his last few games as a pro

2008- Neimsz 25th overall. 15 NHL games a complete bust
2019- Pelletier 26th overall. An injury derailed what should have been his rookie year. Great numbers in the A so hopes are he can still be a player

The comparison is interesting, but the key here is that we have hit on quite a few players outside the first round in this current iteration that have the potential to become really solid NHLers. Morin, Poirier, Pospisil, Kuznetsov, Solovyov, and of course, Wolf.

There are also players on the team right now drafted outside of round 1 from before this timeline too: Andersson, Mangiapane, Dube, Ruzicka, and Kylington would be here if not for an unexpected mental health issue.

There are only two guys that made the show with this team from our draft picks outside of round 1 in those earlier years (Gaudreau notwithstanding): Brodie and Ferland, and Ferland didn't last long.

I guess I'm saying that I have a lot more confidence in the drafting and development now compared to back then, which is exactly what you want if you're rebuilding. Beyond the high first round picks you earn for sucking, the key in making a strong team is trading your current assets for a lot of late 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks, and turning that into your secondary talent. I think the Flames are currently in a great position to do this.

So, go and trade all the expiring UFAs for picks this year or next, and use that to supplement the current prospect base and any other high end elite talent player that you get for sucking really bad. Do this effectively and you'll have a very good team in just a few years.

[Savvy27]

I would prefer to be in the current situation, if I were the GM (as long as I was confident that I would have at least 3 years to turn it around).

Lindholm, Tanev, Zadorov, and Hanifin are all valuable pieces and they should provide a boatload of draft picks. If Conroy is able to convince ownership to retain on 3 of them and wait until the deadline or take on a bad contract on the other, then they should be able to fit on any team in the league creating a solid market for each.

Zary, Coronato, and Pelletier are surefire top 9 players and one or two of them may even prove to be top line calibre. They are under team control for log enough that the franchise should be heading back towards competitiveness before we lose any of them. Honzek is too much of a question mark at the moment since he has been hurt all year. Hopefully he is another top 6 player that they can count on in a few seasons.

Defence: with Weegar and Andersson locked in for a few more seasons, the D core is a bit similar to the 2013 rebuild. I like Solovyov, Poirier, and Morin a lot as prospects and think there is probably another top 4 guy amongst them.

Goalies: Wolf is an elite goalie prospect, so you have to hope that he's going to carry the load as a franchise goalie in the future. As many here have pointed out, goaltending is the hardest position to project for with prospects. However, he is the best up and coming goalie I can remember them ever having.

In two seasons the foundation will possibly be:

Zary Kadri Coronato
Huberdeau Backlund Mangiapane
Pelletier Dube Coleman
Honzek Sharangovich Pospisil

Now, the possibility of trading Backlund, Dube, Mangiapane, Coleman, Sharangovich, and Kadri seems realistic to different degrees and could bring in more assets to create a new core as well.

If the Flames bottom out this year and pick in the top 5 there are some C and D prospects that could lead a team in the future. There are really good wingers too, but my hope is that they can get an elite player at C or D. Imagine Celebrini being the new star of the Flames... It'd be awesome to see.

Wolf is as good of a goalie prospect as there is, so that is one spot that they have already done a fine job of setting up for.

Now we are a couple years into the future. The cupboards are stocked with first and second rounders. The new arena is about to open and the city will be buzzing. With all of that capital and cap space there should be opportunity to trade prospects and surplus picks to get some high end talent from teams facing a crunch and hopefully the new arena and core will be appealing enough to get good UFA players to fill any gaps.

All in all, I'm pretty optimistic about the future of the organization of they are going to embrace this situation as an opportunity to remake the team.

[Moneyhands23]

With Wolf as a potential #1 goalie and our current young group of forwards (Pelltier, Honzek, Coronato and more) we are in a way better spot. Also I think we have some decent d prospects to add in to Rasmus who is still young.

This is a great time to go for it and if we can get our #1 center this year (top 3 pick in draft) and then hit heavy on d picks for the next 2-3 years we should be solid.

[sureLoss]

Flames can be in a much better position to leverage cap space this time around.

Remember in 2013 and 2014 a lot of teams got out of cap jail with compliance buyouts that didn't count against the cap.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Flames can be in a much better position to leverage cap space this time around.

Remember in 2013 and 2014 a lot of teams got out of cap jail with compliance buyouts that didn't count against the cap.

Sorry, I don’t follow.

How are they better this time around, saddled with boat anchor contracts (consuming cap space) and no get out of jail card?

[CFO]

Now is better. Flames would need to sign garbage to get to a floor cap.

Every player on this team is tradable other then Huberdeau right now.

Example - flames eat 50% of Coleman - and a team will pounce on that.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Sorry, I don’t follow.

How are they better this time around, saddled with boat anchor contracts (consuming cap space) and no get out of jail card?

If you have a good chunk of your roster on ELC, then an anchor doesn't matter. You probably need it to get to the floor. Cap will probably go up 4-8M in the next 2 years.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Sorry, I don’t follow.

How are they better this time around, saddled with boat anchor contracts (consuming cap space) and no get out of jail card?

Other teams had 2 get out of jail free cards in 2013 now they don’t. The flames can move out their guys and take on some bad money a little easier and therefore maximize trade returns. I see what you are saying. Considering they already have 2 really bad contracts on the books it is tough to see them adding more