Rube's 2016 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[rubecube]

We're back, folks! After posting a 77-58-4 record ATS last year, I believe that's now three consecutive years with a record above 50% (someone may want to fact check that). I'll be honest and say I haven't followed the NFL as religiously this offseason so that could hurt me. I will also warn that the first three weeks might be a bit of a crapshoot. Week 1 I'll be in Philly to watch the Eagles/Browns game, so I'll miss all of the other morning games and will likely not be sober for the afternoon and evening games (okay so the second part of that isn't really different from previous years). Week 2, I'm going to my buddy's resort on Pender Island for the weekend so it's unlikely I'll catch any of the games unless his WiFi is a lot better than I'm expecting it to be.

I'm still debating doing a podcast this year, but I might do a format where I make picks against my idiot friend who loves football but knows dick all about it, so stay tuned for that if I get around to it.

I made some side future bets as well, which I'll spoiler below:

Spoiler!

Regular season wins:
CAR U10.5
DEN U9.5
BUF O8
CLE U4.5
JAX U7.5
KC O9.5
TB O7.5

Super Bowl Winner: Seattle +736

Now on to the week 1 picks! I don't normally do the Thursday night games but I always make an exception for opening week.

CAR -3
TB ML
TEN ML
SF ML
NYJ +2.5
NO -1.5
JAX +4.5
SEA -10
NYG +1
ARI -6
KC -6.5
BUF +3
DET +3
PIT - 1.5

[Sylvanfan]

We should see how you did in the first three weeks the past few years.

I always think that the first few weeks are more difficult as you try to get a feel for things. But I have nothing to back that up.

I think the best bets this week would be the Jets, Saints, and Seahawks. Even the Titans as a money play is worthwhile. Other than that I can talk myself into leaning either way quite easily.

At this point I'd like to see what this years Jaguars are before I'm comfortable giving a consensus top 4 team like the Packers a pretty lean 4.5 point spread against them even in a road game.

[CofR]

For your futures bets I LOVE the Broncos under

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

We should see how you did in the first three weeks the past few years.

I always think that the first few weeks are more difficult as you try to get a feel for things. But I have nothing to back that up.

I think the best bets this week would be the Jets, Saints, and Seahawks. Even the Titans as a money play is worthwhile. Other than that I can talk myself into leaning either way quite easily.

At this point I'd like to see what this years Jaguars are before I'm comfortable giving a consensus top 4 team like the Packers a pretty lean 4.5 point spread against them even in a road game.

I'm 54-38-3 since 2012 in the first three weeks:

2015 - 18-10-1
2014 - 16-5-1
2013 - 11-12
2012 - 9-11-1

I find the first few weeks the best thing to do is be a bit of a contrarian. People will overreact to the previous year or overhype certain teams during the preseason. I'm not completely sold on the Packers as a top 4 team yet.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CofR

For your futures bets I LOVE the Broncos under

It's not a great bet only because I think it was at -199, but that's how strongly I feel about the Broncos regressing this year.

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's not a great bet only because I think it was at -199, but that's how strongly I feel about the Broncos regressing this year.

Why? Quite possibly a better QB situation, Defense remains for the most part intact and they have the championship experience...

[Sylvanfan]

This is why I sit out week one...

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

This is why I sit out week one...

It kind of went how I expected it to go. I can still win the week if the Niners spoil the Rams homecoming tonight.

[rubecube]

Nevermind, I'm 5-6 right now. I also added PIT -1.5 for tonight.

[Weitz]

I hit a 5 team parlay on sunday and won money in the Sunday Draft Kings. So far so good.

An average game for Big Ben and Brown and I will be in the money on my other draft kings.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I hit a 5 team parlay on sunday and won money in the Sunday Draft Kings. So far so good.

An average game for Big Ben and Brown and I will be in the money on my other draft kings.

Nice work. I'll probably avoid DFS this year.

I'll take 7-6 in week 1, especially considering that I came through on the games I felt strongest about (Jags, Lions, Bucs, and Niners).

[rubecube]

Broke my rule for tonight. Bills +1.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Broke my rule for tonight. Bills +1.

I think the Bills look more like an 0-2 team than the Jets who should have beat a good Bengals team last week.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think the Bills look more like an 0-2 team than the Jets who should have beat a good Bengals team last week.

Bills won both meetings last year and neither team really made any memorable moves this offseason, so I'm giving the Bills the edge at home.

[rubecube]

Good call, EE, the Bills are terrible. 7-6 last week and 0-1 to start this week.

BUF ML (L)
DET -6
TB +6.5
PHI +3
CIN +3
NO +5
SEA -6.5
JAX +3
GB -2.5
HOU -2.5
WSH -3
DEN -6
OAK -4.5

[Erick Estrada]

Not sure I would take the Raiders at -4.5. It's going to be a FG game IMO as the Raiders defense hasn't gelled yet and I can see some big plays by the Falcons passing game.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Not sure I would take the Raiders at -4.5. It's going to be a FG game IMO as the Raiders defense hasn't gelled yet and I can see some big plays by the Falcons passing game.

It's probably the pick I'm least confident in to be honest. That said, Atlanta's offensive line isn't very good, so I could see Mack having a big day.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's probably the pick I'm least confident in to be honest. That said, Atlanta's offensive line isn't very good, so I could see Mack having a big day.

Don't change your pick on my account as if the Raiders cover I'll feel bad (happy the Raiders won on a personal level though). I'm actually taking the Colts as I'm not sold on Siemian and thought the Broncos only won last week because of extremely poor officiating. I expect the officials will be watching them closely this week and Luck has never had issues with that Broncos defense.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Nice work. I'll probably avoid DFS this year.

I'll take 7-6 in week 1, especially considering that I came through on the games I felt strongest about (Jags, Lions, Bucs, and Niners).

Have thoughts on why?

I like DFS because I never win or lose big. Haha. I think I took home $40 after last NFL season.

I went 10 for 16 in my work pick 'em pool, good for 13th place.. Usually thats a winning score!

[Jason14h]

10-16 usually wins your pickem ! Even against the spread that isn't a winning score !