Down to the wire and the playoffs

[Cecil Terwilliger]

I find it odd how much focus goes into games vs playoff teams or non playoff teams and the assumption that teams always beat non playoff teams and lose to playoff teams.

There are 16 playoff teams. That's more than half the league. Often times there are only a few points separating the teams out of the playoffs vs those in the playoffs. The idea that the difficulty goes up exponentially just doesn't make sense.

Only the true bottom feeders, of which there are very few, are at a significant level below.

Moreover, it totally ignores recent records, home vs away records, back to backs, injuries, records vs the teams upcoming etc.

The only team from the OP with a noticeably easier schedule is STL and that's because they play the league's two worst teams 6 times in the next month.


I'd love to see some historical statistics on the last month of the season and points produced based purely on strength of schedule, ignoring the factors I listed above. I wonder if there is any noticeable correlation to points gained. Then I'd like to compare it to other isolated factors. Points since all star break, home vs away etc. See if any of them can independently be a predictor of points gained.

[FlameZilla]

Flames win remaining 14, finish the season with 108 points. Win cup.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Fans do this who's-schedule-is-harder thing over and over and it turns out meaningless every single time.

Teams beat teams above them in the standings and lose to teams below them in the standings all the ####ing time.

So dumb.

Agreed. Plus "bad teams" always seem to play better when they are spoiling things for a team with all the pressure.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I find it odd how much focus goes into games vs playoff teams or non playoff teams and the assumption that teams always beat non playoff teams and lose to playoff teams.

There are 16 playoff teams. That's more than half the league. Often times there are only a few points separating the teams out of the playoffs vs those in the playoffs. The idea that the difficulty goes up exponentially just doesn't make sense.

Only the true bottom feeders, of which there are very few, are at a significant level below.

For these reasons I tend to think that if one is going to predict how a given team might fare down the stretch it makes most sense to evaluate based on groupings of games. We cannot guess which individual games the Flames might win or lose in their upcoming home stand, but we should have a good idea about how many they might win or lose based on how they have tended to do so over the course of a season.

[edslunch]

Since 5-10-1 start the Flames are at 66% points percentage. Extrapolate that out gives another 18 points for 98. Let's say 8-4-2. I think they could afford to lose an extra game or two, let's say 6-5-3 for 95 pts and IN!

[GGG]

I think the Anaheim in Anaheim game is critical for the flames to win especially if we face them in the playoffs.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Fans do this who's-schedule-is-harder thing over and over and it turns out meaningless every single time.

Teams beat teams above them in the standings and lose to teams below them in the standings all the ####ing time.

So dumb.

Yet teams tend to beat teams below them in the standings, and lose to teams above them in the standings, with great regularity. A whole betting industry is predicated on this axiom. Failure to acknowledge that is, how did you put it, so dumb.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yet teams tend to beat teams below them in the standings, and lose to teams above them in the standings, with great regularity. A whole betting industry is predicated on this axiom. Failure to acknowledge that is, how did you put it, so dumb.

However the likelyhood of winning any one game against any team in the league ranges between about 40 and 60 percent. So while the groupings might have some merit saying we'll win 100% of the non playoff team games and go .500 on the rest does not have any basis in fact. So non playoff vs playoff vs elite groupings don't hold much water the way they are typically applied

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Fans do this who's-schedule-is-harder thing over and over and it turns out meaningless every single time.

Teams beat teams above them in the standings and lose to teams below them in the standings all the ####ing time.

So dumb.

It's true. I can't recall a single instance where anyone looked back and pointed to schedules being a huge factor in how berths were decided. It has always come down to how well/poorly the teams jousting played. That's why they play the games and don't just write "W" in for the favoured team.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yet teams tend to beat teams below them in the standings, and lose to teams above them in the standings, with great regularity. A whole betting industry is predicated on this axiom. Failure to acknowledge that is, how did you put it, so dumb.

The betting industry is predicated on odds, which are ultimately affected by how much money is bet and where it's placed. Standings will affect initial odds, but they're hardly the basis for the gambling industry.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

However the likelyhood of winning any one game against any team in the league ranges between about 40 and 60 percent. So while the groupings might have some merit saying we'll win 100% of the non playoff team games and go .500 on the rest does not have any basis in fact. So non playoff vs playoff vs elite groupings don't hold much water the way they are typically applied

This is very true. But strength of schedule routinely does play a significant factor in the success of a team, especially making the post season. Comparing the difficulty of schedule down the stretch is an important factor to take into consideration. Or are you going to suggest that you would rather the Flames wouldn't be benefitted by playing the Canucks and the Avalanche instead of the teams near the top of the division?

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think the Anaheim in Anaheim game is critical for the flames to win especially if we face them in the playoffs.

Agreed. That's the biggest game for me on the remaining schedule.

Could do wonders for the psyche of the team, even if the Flames don't face them. And it's even bigger if they do.

[doncherry]

For me the biggest game is the next game, then the next game after that, regardless of opponent, and I hope the Flames focus this way as well.

[PepsiFree]

I'm confident the Flames have enough of a cushion to hold on to a playoff spot, however:

Last year, the Boston Bruins were in a similar situation.

2016-17 Calgary Flames
68 GP
38 W
26 L
4 OTL
80 P (4th in the Conference, 2nd in Pacific)
Closest team out of the playoffs: LA Kings (67 GP, 8 points back)

2015-16 Boston Bruins (as of March 12th 2016)
69 GP
38 W
28 L
8 OTL
84 P (3rd in the Conference, 1st in Atlantic)
Closest team out of playoffs: Philadelphia Flyers (66GP, 9 points back)


Granted, the two teams that made it in on the Wildcard had 2 and 3 games in hand over Boston, no team currently has more than 1 game in hand over Calgary, and this is a big factor.

That said:
Boston went 4-8-1 over their last 13 games, gaining only 9 points, and finishing with 93 points (3 points back of Philadelphia and Detroit for a wildcard position).

So a pretty substantial collapse isn't out of the realm of possibility, it just happened last year. Detroit went 8-7 to get in while the Flyers went 9-4, so it's not like either team went on an incredible run to match Boston's collapse either.

It'll be an exciting end to the season, and if the win streak continues for another 6 games, then I'll feel a little more comfortable.

[Gaudfather]

If the Flames went 4-8-2 over their last 14, then we would have a tough time saying they were legitimately a playoff team. It is how you play during crunch time that really tells your DNA.

[Enoch Root]

It isn't a question of whether it's easier or not to play a weaker team, the question is how much easier?

And the answer is not all that much.

But more importantly we're not talking about one game, we're talking about 15 games for each team.

Way too much noise involved to say this schedule is worth 2 more points than that schedule or whatever.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Remember how much joy we took in putting the final nail in the coffin of a Kings team in 2014-15? It would suck if they could return the favor this year. I'm hoping we take six of the next eight points, including the game against the Kings, and make this a non-issue. It would be extremely nice to have a spot sewn up before that final road trip through California.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Fans do this who's-schedule-is-harder thing over and over and it turns out meaningless every single time.

Teams beat teams above them in the standings and lose to teams below them in the standings all the ####ing time.

So dumb.

That and the Flames are a good team, those teams see Calgary and think that game is a a toss up like we do. We have a good team, not sure why any schedule would be intimidating at this point.

[Vinny01]

A lot of teams play a lot looser when they are officially eliminated. I could see a team like Dalls, Vancouver, or Winnipeg giving teams trouble in their last 10 games. Winnipeg and Dallas have the same problem. Bad goalies and mediocre defense but those teams have offensive fire power. Vancouver has got pretty solid goaltending and work really hard. A team with a lot to lose might struggle against these teams down the stretch.

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by New Era

From another thread, here are the schedules of the teams in the mix for the post season. I've included Nashville as they could end up in the Wildcard mix if St. Louis passes them in the standings, and that looks like a possibility. Predictions?

CGY (80) - PIT, BOS, DAL, LAK, @WAS, @NAS, @STL, COL, LAK, SJS, ANA, @ANA, @LAK, @SJS

ANA (80) - WAS, STL, BUF, @SJS, EDM, WPG, NYR, @VAN, @WPG, @EDM, @CGY, CGY, @CHI, LAK

EDM (79) - MTL, DAL, BOS, VAN, LAK, @ANA, COL, COL, LAK, SJS, @ANA, @LA, @SJS, @VAN, VAN

STL (75) - @LAK, @ANA, @SJS, @ARI, @COL, VAN, CGY, ARI, @ARI, @COL, NAS, WPG, @FLA, @CAR, COL

LAK (72) - STL, AZ, BUF, @CGY, @EDM, WPG, NYR, @EDM, @CGY, @VAN, AZ, EDM, CGY, CHI, @ANA

NSH (77) - WPG, @WAS, @CAR, AZ, CGY, SJS, @NYI, @BOS, TOR, MIN, @STL, NYI, @DAL, @WPG

The Sharks are a factor in this, especially in the division race. They will not fall into the wildcard spot, but, they could end up in second or third place.

Here is the remaining Sharks schedule.

SJS (89) - BUF, STL, ANA, @DAL, @MIN, @DAL, @NAS, NYR, @EDM, @ CGY, @VAN, VAN, EDM, CGY