[News] With the 34th overall pick the Flames select G Mason McDonald

[dustygoon]

While in my cocoon getting kids their breaky, I see this pick and cheered. Then came on here to see the calamity.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Anduril

Weak argument. All the nominees in 2012 were drafted by and playing for their original team. The Vezina is an award to the goalie with the best season. Not necessarily meaning they are an elite goaltender in their career.

Bishop had #1 upside and played great this season. Hopefully he can continue that. Rask, doesn't really count since it was a goalie for goalie trade with the Leafs giving up a young Rask for a more developed Raycroft. Varlamov costed the Avalanche a 1st and a 2nd. Tough price to pay.

So either you can luck out by trading a solid youngster for a young goalie with potential, pay a hefty price or draft your own. As you said, goalies are so unpredictable. To me, that's all the more reason to have more solid prospects in your pool.

Based on # of wins, of the top 10 goalies 3 were drafted. Based on points, of the top 10 Cs 8 were drafted (as were the next 10 of 10). Based on minutes played, of the top 10 D 8 were drafted. Based on goals, of the top 10 W 6 were drafted. In our entire history the Flames have drafted one goalie that played a significant number of games for the Flames (Vernon).

That is a bit quick and dirty. But clearly goalie is the easiest position to find outside of the draft.

I am not suggesting that this makes McDonald a bad pick or that you should never draft goalies. But goalies are the easiest position to find outside of the draft.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

That is all well and good - and valid.

However, there is also the fact that market conditions ebb and flow. One year, no one takes goalies until the 4th round, another year, it starts in the 1st round. You have to be cognizant of that and react accordingly.

Also, goaltending was a definite source of concern this year with only 3 legitimate prospects in the entire system. They wanted to make sure they got their guy.

And, even though my general rule is no goalies before the 3rd round,I have absolutely no problem with that.

I can agree with all of this. This was also an unusual year. Maybe the Flames scouts determined that all the skaters left in the 2nd had a lower than usual chance of becoming NHL players and the goalies had a higher than usual chance.

In this case, taking the best goalie available makes total sense. Although maybe in that case trading the pick for an almost fully developed goalie makes the most sense...

[davidbjordan]

looks like i may have to go to more charlottetown islanders games

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by davidbjordan

looks like i may have to go to more charlottetown islanders games

Right Winger Daniel Sprong may well go top 10 in the 2015 draft too, so all the more reason to see the Islanders.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Teams more or less draft a goalie every other year or so. Flames didn't draft one last year, and everyone knew they were going to this year. I didn't expect it this early, but at least they got who they thought was the best one available, and perhaps they even thought he was the best prospect available at that time. Who knows?

As for the Flames having enough goalie prospects - they don't. I thought they had enough with Brossoit (getting Roy back doesn't count, as he just isn't a decent goalie prospect), but the trade made a small hole there.

Ortio looked great last year, but until he makes it (and I am personally high on him - have been since the draft, though got a bit worried when he had that rough year) you just can't count on it.

Gillies plays for a very defensive Providence team. Had a bit of a confidence issue going on (which is, IMO, a good thing to go through as part of your development) and seems to have gotten through that big bump in the road he had last year. I like him (though a bit less than I like Ortio), but once again, he is not a guarantee.

Flames added to what may be the most important position on the ice in a game. If you have a lousy netminder, you just aren't winning a cup. You need at least an above-average netminder with a stacked team to win it, or you need a world-class goalie with a strong team behind you to steal it. McDonald is just another important piece in trying to assure the Flames eventually get there.

Was surprised they took a goalie that high, but if they really liked what they saw and feel he projects well, then that is the correct move to make.

[keratosis]

I have no problem with this pick

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Again, yes. You're trading for a players that are fully developed or very close to ready instead of a player who is a long shot. Let other teams do all the development work. There are decent goalies on the trade market at all times.

It's just math to me. A few years ago I did a bunch of research on how often a draft pick becomes a player. A skater picked from 31 to 45 has about a 29% chance of becoming a 'real' NHL player (which I defined as 300+ games played). A goalie picked from 31 to 45 had around an 18% chance of playing 100 NHL games.

From the sounds of it, we got the best goalie prospect available this year. I really hope he becomes a star for us. I just think the math is better that one of the best available remaining dmen has a higher chance of being an NHL player.

I kind of agree with what you are saying. For example Bishop was somewhat proven and traded for a 2nd. In that scenario we would probably been better off trading this 2nd for Bishop. There definitely always is goalie log jams where you can trade for a goalie. Then there is always the UFA market. Since there is a maximum of 30 starting positions it does seem like it would be easier to aquire a goalie than any other position just because of the numbers.

[sureLoss]

Interesting...

In this video: http://video.flames.nhl.com/videocen...627235&lang=en

Burke says on Friday night that they discussed taking a goaltender only if a specific player was not available at 34.

Only 3 players were selected between Friday night and when the Flames picked at #34.

Brendan Lemieux
Jayce Hawryluk
Ivan Barbashev

If Burke is to be believed, the Flames wanted 1 of those 3 players more than McDonald. (Guessing Lemieux?)

[GGG]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Based on # of wins, of the top 10 goalies 3 were drafted. Based on points, of the top 10 Cs 8 were drafted (as were the next 10 of 10). Based on minutes played, of the top 10 D 8 were drafted. Based on goals, of the top 10 W 6 were drafted. In our entire history the Flames have drafted one goalie that played a significant number of games for the Flames (Vernon).

That is a bit quick and dirty. But clearly goalie is the easiest position to find outside of the draft.

I am not suggesting that this makes McDonald a bad pick or that you should never draft goalies. But goalies are the easiest position to find outside of the draft.

Number of wins is the worst goalie stat, its like believing in RBIs or +\-. Minutes for a defensemen is better but not great as it ignores teams with good depth.

And you cant count Rask as a trade as he was still an unproven prospect. His is essentially is the same as a draft pick.

[GGG]

One other thing when we go back in 3 to 5 years to evaluate this pick its Mckowen we should compare him to as that seems to be the guy most people would havevrather picked. You dont get to compare him to one of the 5 defensemen still available as we can only pick one.

[Hackey]

I agree Mckowen will be the big comparable. At the same time though they had the opportunity to pick any so if 3 or 4 are having decent careers it's a lot harder to swallow than if only one is.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hackey

I agree Mckowen will be the big comparable. At the same time though they had the opportunity to pick any so if 3 or 4 are having decent careers it's a lot harder to swallow than if only one is.

Thats the emotional response but really we still would have had only one pick. So if you want to play arm chair GM pick your guy here and stick to it. Its like people comparing the best guys to Jankowski instead of Teravian which was the consensus guy at the time.

[tvp2003]

In the past two years, no less than 9 goalies have been picked in the second round:

2013:

36 - Fucale - MTL
44 - Jarry - PIT
54 - Desrosiers - DAL
59 - Comrie - WPG

2014:

34 - McDonald - CGY
36 - Demko - VAN
37 - Nedeljkovic - CAR
39 - Vanecek - WAS
59 - Halverson - NYR

Realistically, how many of these guys will actually hit (i.e. become a legit NHL starter). Half?

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

In the past two years, no less than 9 goalies have been picked in the second round:

2013:

36 - Fucale - MTL
44 - Jarry - PIT
54 - Desrosiers - DAL
59 - Comrie - WPG

2014:

34 - McDonald - CGY
36 - Demko - VAN
37 - Nedeljkovic - CAR
39 - Vanecek - WAS
59 - Halverson - NYR

Realistically, how many of these guys will actually hit (i.e. become a legit NHL starter). Half?

The only two on that list that I think have the potential to be starters are McDonald and Halverson. Not a fan of the rest at all. Jarry and Comrie would be the next two on my list btw.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The only two on that list that I think have the potential to be starters are McDonald and Halverson. Not a fan of the rest at all. Jarry and Comrie would be the next two on my list btw.

Dude, really? The way you speak in absolutes when talking about prospects is hilarious. You're not a pro scout. I enjoy your analysis but come on.

[SHOGUN]

I remember people crapping on the Poirier pick last year and wanted Shinkaruk... why do I get th same feeling here?

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Dude, really? The way you speak in absolutes when talking about prospects is hilarious. You're not a pro scout. I enjoy your analysis but come on.

What? Someone asked for opinions on how many will hit of the 9 and I replied with my answer.

I gave my opinion on the ones that I thought were the best of the bunch. I never said McDonald and Halverson will definitely be starters and the rest will not. I gave my opinion on the ones that I think have the best potential to be starters. The rest leave me unimpressed thus far from what I've watched of them.

Am I not allowed to give an opinion?

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

In the past two years, no less than 9 goalies have been picked in the second round:

2013:

36 - Fucale - MTL
44 - Jarry - PIT
54 - Desrosiers - DAL
59 - Comrie - WPG

2014:

34 - McDonald - CGY
36 - Demko - VAN
37 - Nedeljkovic - CAR
39 - Vanecek - WAS
59 - Halverson - NYR

Realistically, how many of these guys will actually hit (i.e. become a legit NHL starter). Half?

Based on historical averages, about 2 will play more than 100 games.

[sun]

Dunno anything about this kid, but if it's gotta be a goalie, I'm glad it wasn't Demko.