Well since no updates for a while, the chamber (dyke) has moved about 40 km from near Bįršarbunga north east, gone from under the glacier (phew) and now its a small fissure eruption. The amount of magma though is about x10 more than Eyjafjallajökull so there is lots still to worry about.
The eruption is near Dyngajökull at the edge of the glacier, and the underground magma dyke has connected with another volcano Askja. So at this point there are 3 major volacanoes attached by this formation and both Askja and Bįršarbunga are still shaking, so potential is still there for a massive eruption (about 10%) according to some.
Here's where the current fissure eruption is:
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Thor, im travelling from Amsterdam to Calgary on Sunday. Should I be concerned?
Nah, at this point lots of quakes under the volcano, actually 2 of them, but no immediate sign of anything happening. That can change quickly though, but I wouldn't stress over it.
So the fissure eruption continues, it is not unlikely that this could go on for months, the amount of lava under this fissure is massive. Some say months to even a year.
Here's some new pics taken yesterday. So of these are reaching as high as 20-30 meters high, and below is also a video taken by a BBC journalist.
Spoiler!
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So the fissure continues to release lots of lava, this is now the most lava of any eruption since the 1700s, the talk now is all the activity 30km's from the fissure under Bįršarbunga's cauldron which has sunk over 30 meters and seismic activity is deeply concerning to experts.
Here's an image of how much lava has come out, overlay-ed on to Manhattan:
He notes three possible scenarios regarding Bardarbunga. Firstly that the seismic activity, and the Holuhraun eruption, dies down slowly. A second scenario would see the subsidence continue, as well as the Holuhraun eruption, or even another eruption starting nearby.
"But the third scenario is that the subsidence in the floor of the caldera causes an eruption within Bardarbunga. Such an eruption could melt a large volume of glacial ice, and could end up as a powerful explosive eruption, with ashfall," says Dr. Gudmundsson. "The meltwater would perhaps not be released immediately, due to the contour of the caldera, but eventually it would come out as a powerful flood. Obviously, we are worried about this possibility."
This scenario is regarded as very serious, not least because of the potential for a flood, which could cause extensive damage, says the director of the Civil Protection Agency in Iceland, Vidir Reynisson. "We are gravely concerned about this scenario. If we study the history of the Bardarbunga volcano, we see large and powerful eruptions in or near the caldera; we are bound to take this very seriously, especially after the subsidence was observed."
Tomorrow, Reynisson and his colleagues at the Civil Protection Agency will brief the Prime Minister of Iceland, Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, on the situation at Bardarbunga. Today, Reynisson met with the National Power Company, (Landsvirkjun), to discuss the potential consequences of a major flood from Bardarbunga threatening hydropower plants to the west of Vatnajokull glacier, which covers the volcano.
Is this scenario mainly just an economic threat or a safety threat to significant civilian populations? From an ash cloud perspective, this still seems like a non-event, right?
Well the caldera explosion under the glacier has the potential to damage a massive hydro dam and would be pretty devastating if there is any serious damage from that.
This particular area is highly active and large volcano's in and around this area is known for massive eruptions that have had serious effects for the EU and Iceland as well, but our biggest immediate fear is ash clouds and flooding.
Its quite far from any populations, the flooding risk is only to the major hydro project in the highlands, the only risk to Reykjavik is if we have a large prolonged eruption that could harm livestock and crops, and bring ash to Reykjavik and surrounding area (usually the wind goes the opposite direction though.)
Well time for an update, the Hólshraun fissure eruption north east of the glacier and about 50km from Bįršarbunga continues, the lava field is the size of Manhattan now and noxious Gases have been a problem to people in the North East of Iceland, although not terribly bad just discomfort in the lungs and throat at worst.
During this fissure eruption the quakes have moved from the area closer to the fissure, back to right under Bįršarbunga and the glacier on top has been sinking, a few meters in a few days, and people are now bracing for a massive eruption under the glacier at Bįršarbunga, which will make Eyjafjallajökull dwarf in comparison.
The 10 km wide caldera is now a source of lots of 3-5.5 sized quakes, and shows continuing signs of the caldera sinking, all very bad signs.
This is an image taken from right underneath the glacier in Bįršarbunga to give you an idea how just how localized the seismic action is now in the caldera:
During this fissure eruption the quakes have moved from the area closer to the fissure, back to right under Bįršarbunga and the glacier on top has been sinking, a few meters in a few days, and people are now bracing for a massive eruption under the glacier at Bįršarbunga, which will make Eyjafjallajökull dwarf in comparison.
Time to crack each others heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Not the kind of update you want to see, thought this one had gone relatively quiet again since your last update.
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Yeah we figured that the fissure would release a lot of pressure, but there is such a vast amount of magma in that area that we are only seeing the beginning of this.
Also on the best webpage to follow whats happening they now offer a view of the caldera drop measurements, here's the website> http://baering.github.io/
Here's the latest info from the last 72hrs, you can see how a large seismic event often includes a big drop in the caldera, in this image we have seen about 1.5 meters drop in the 80km wide caldera, that is a lot!
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