Alberta Provincial By-Elections - Fall 2014 Editions

[Frequitude]

If Greg Clarke autodials me one more god damn day in a row at 8:00pm I'm going to flip.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

If Greg Clarke autodials me one more god damn day in a row at 8:00pm I'm going to flip.

My significant other gets a call every night (or pretty much every night.) We don't even live in the Elbow riding anymore but obviously her number must still be on a list somewhere.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

This is not based on any data--purely anecdotal--but I live in Calgary Elbow and so far it seems like the only parties that have any lawn signs on actual lawns are the Alberta Party, the PCs and the Wild Rose. I haven't counted, but I feel like I see way more of the first two.

The NDP has signs out on public roads, but I haven't seen any on lawns. I literally have not seen one sign for our Liberal candidate, whose name I had to look up.

Now this doesn't necessarily mean much, but I at least wonder if the Alberta Party has managed to get a significant jump on the Liberals here. Again, nothing behind it other than my observations driving through my neighbourhood.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I can't find a non-alberta party link from the Calgary Leadership Forum, but if anyone is interested there is an all candidates forum for Calgary-Elbow tonight.

http://www.albertaparty.ca/calgary_l...didates_debate

Should be an interesting debate tonight. I have a feeling this will be an important event for Dirk's campaign and I think it's going to be driven on Dirk's stance on GSA and Bill 44. If Dirks is smart he'd come out and say he's all for GSAs and squash this uncertainty.

So much for that...

@mikesbloggity: Last night, every #yycelbow candidate wore a pride sticker except for the Minister of Education @GordonDirks. He refused one. Why? #ableg

https://twitter.com/mikesbloggity/st...04629012123649

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'm liking the Alberta Party's chances more and more. Dirks is a moron, even if he doesn't want to wear the sticker, he outta know politically he needs to wear the sticker.

[Slava]

The main reason that I don't think that the Alberta Party stands a chance is that they don't even register with the average voter. There are only two weeks to go, and yes the only poll that matters is on election day, but still. Have they ever been above say 3%?

[Resolute 14]

Agreed. I am looking for some context here. What "chances" do you like? The chance of passing the NDP to finish fourth?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

This is not based on any data--purely anecdotal--but I live in Calgary Elbow and so far it seems like the only parties that have any lawn signs on actual lawns are the Alberta Party, the PCs and the Wild Rose. I haven't counted, but I feel like I see way more of the first two.

The NDP has signs out on public roads, but I haven't seen any on lawns. I literally have not seen one sign for our Liberal candidate, whose name I had to look up.

Now this doesn't necessarily mean much, but I at least wonder if the Alberta Party has managed to get a significant jump on the Liberals here. Again, nothing behind it other than my observations driving through my neighbourhood.

I drove down Elbow drive and most of the signs on homes there are Liberal and PC's with a few Wildrose and Alberta Party sprinkled in. Just judging by that it looks like a tight race. I think that the Liberals and PC's are probably neck and neck, but that's based purely on driving through and nothing scientific.

[taco.vidal]

http://www.dirksrecord.ca





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[SebC]

http://www.elbowpride.ca/

[Senator Clay Davis]

I honestly think the Alberta Party can win. Stephen Carter is a very good political operative so him in the Alberta Party camp is a good thing; to me the PC's might have blown their chance with Dirks (Elbow is, for Alberta, pretty liberal so to shun gays like that is unbelievably dumb). And I'm using IowaFlamesFan's anecdotal evidence the PCs and Alberta Party are the top two signs I see. I think the door is wide open now. 2 weeks isn't much but this is going to likely be a low turnout race so a lot can change in that time with an expected low turnout.

Or they'll get slaughtered and I'll look like an idiot. Whichever.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Slava

I drove down Elbow drive and most of the signs on homes there are Liberal and PC's with a few Wildrose and Alberta Party sprinkled in. Just judging by that it looks like a tight race. I think that the Liberals and PC's are probably neck and neck, but that's based purely on driving through and nothing scientific.

I haven't been to that area--but I have not seen a single liberal sign in Glamorgan or Rutland Park. The only reason I mention it is that it strikes me as remarkable. Based on the Calgary Centre by-election, there should be tons of Liberal voters around. So where are the signs?

It's not scientific, and it's also far from being a complete picture of the riding--it's just something I noticed.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I haven't been to that area--but I have not seen a single liberal sign in Glamorgan or Rutland Park. The only reason I mention it is that it strikes me as remarkable. Based on the Calgary Centre by-election, there should be tons of Liberal voters around. So where are the signs?

It's not scientific, and it's also far from being a complete picture of the riding--it's just something I noticed.

I don't know the specifics, but I think that area is one that is hard for the Liberals for whatever reason. I just think as a small l liberal that this scenario is frustrating though. Clark will siphon off votes from Wright and then Dirks will win. We saw this with the Calgary-Centre byelection and could well see it again here. Maybe after that the progressives/liberals will get together. I think that provincially this is it for the Alberta Party. If he doesn't win, its bad news for them, and if he doesn't win and can't even beat Susan Wright then its over. At least that is my thought.

[killer_carlson]

And if Clark does win, I think that is it for the Liberals

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Slava

I drove down Elbow drive and most of the signs on homes there are Liberal and PC's with a few Wildrose and Alberta Party sprinkled in. Just judging by that it looks like a tight race. I think that the Liberals and PC's are probably neck and neck, but that's based purely on driving through and nothing scientific.

Breaking News! Liberal signs stick out to liberal. Liberal also has an irrational hatred of the Alberta Party. More as this story develops.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Greg Clark signs on residential property currently outnumber all the other candidates COMBINED by a 3-1 ratio. It's not even close. Clark has a helluva ground game going.

Clark is popular in the infill neighbourhoods where there's a concentration of houses.

Common campaign wisdom says that one sign on a private lawn is worth 10 votes.

In order, it's Clark, Fletcher and Wright on that metric. Dirks is far back of the pack with NDP candidate.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

And if Clark does win, I think that is it for the Liberals

It could be. Truthfully one of them has to be done soon because both of them blowing their brains out for the same voter is silly, and will cost them both seats/votes in the longer term. It's the reform/PC problem all over again.

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

Breaking News! Liberal signs stick out to liberal. Liberal also has an irrational hatred of the Alberta Party. More as this story develops.

Nailed it. That's why I said I think the PC's owing win and noticed his signs also. I also noted the Wildrose signs. So yes, after reading the post I drove down one of the main drags in the riding and looked at the signs...lo and behold I saw them. If I were an Ace of Base member I would write a song about it!

I don't think it's biased to notice election signs. I also don't hate the Alberta Party at all. What I hate is that people who are like-minded in general are too proud to drop their barriers with each other to try to get power. That's why I am not a good politician; I would've compromised years ago and joined the two together.

I didn't quote Reggie Dunlop , but had I seen those areas with a proliferation of Alberta Party signs I would've said that. You may not agree with me politically, but that doesn't mean that I am a liar.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

If Greg Clarke autodials me one more god damn day in a row at 8:00pm I'm going to flip.

Depending on the call you've received, it might not be him. CBC link

[Resolute 14]

Honestly, they should just make robocalling illegal. Politics or not, it is an annoyance at best, and illegal at worst.

[c.t.ner]

So... The Alberta Party (via Stephen Carter's BBold Communications) released a "poll" today showing a dead heat in Calgary Elbow.

http://www.greg-clark.ca/threewayrace

Figured it was worth leaving to start some discussion.