Black teen shot and killed by neighborhood watch in Orlando gated community

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But it may ultimately all be a moot point. As I've said before I gotta imagine both sides, prosecutor and defense both, probably do not want this circus going to trial. Do we really want or need Al and Jesse stroking the flames forever? A deal with some jail time still seems the likely outcome to me.

I have no doubt that at least initially Zimmerman's legal team is going to fight this thing in court like crazy. They're going to argue venue, jury selection admission of any evidence.

Unless they have more then the tapes, I think its tough to get a conviction if they're fighting the Stand Fast Law.

I would bet that Zimmerman see's no jail time, I think this is a case of a prosecutor under political pressure over reaching on a charge.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think I mentioned it before but when "Stand your ground" is invoked, guilty verdicts have happend like 19/130. Those are obviously awful odds for the prosecution, which is why I look for them to want a deal. For Zimmerman, as strange as this sounds, it might actually be better for him to at least serve a little time to simmer the rage against him from the AA community. If he straight up walks I really worry someone is going to do something stupid, where if he spends even a year or 18 months in some county facility I think that he'll fade away.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think I mentioned it before but when "Stand your ground" is invoked, guilty verdicts have happend like 19/130. Those are obviously awful odds for the prosecution, which is why I look for them to want a deal. For Zimmerman, as strange as this sounds, it might actually be better for him to at least serve a little time to simmer the rage against him from the AA community. If he straight up walks I really worry someone is going to do something stupid, where if he spends even a year or 18 months in some county facility I think that he'll fade away.

Depends on how guilty he actually believes he is. As it stands if he's convicted his life is pretty much over from any kind of standpoint, so he has to take that into consideration.

Even if he pleads to a lesser deal its still a felony, and to me it just sounds like thier are some pretty big holes in the case especially for a second degree murder charge.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I have no doubt that at least initially Zimmerman's legal team is going to fight this thing in court like crazy. They're going to argue venue, jury selection admission of any evidence.

Unless they have more then the tapes, I think its tough to get a conviction if they're fighting the Stand Fast Law.

I would bet that Zimmerman see's no jail time, I think this is a case of a prosecutor under political pressure over reaching on a charge.

I don't know that it's a case of political pressure, remember there is pressure both ways here and Florida is the type of place where a lot of political issues tend to be pretty close to 50/50.

[afc wimbledon]

I would suspect the judge wants to be sure she doesn't let something slip by mistake, or even that it might be suspected if CNN gets the jump on a storyline.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think I mentioned it before but when "Stand your ground" is invoked, guilty verdicts have happend like 19/130. Those are obviously awful odds for the prosecution, which is why I look for them to want a deal. For Zimmerman, as strange as this sounds, it might actually be better for him to at least serve a little time to simmer the rage against him from the AA community. If he straight up walks I really worry someone is going to do something stupid, where if he spends even a year or 18 months in some county facility I think that he'll fade away.

How about if he spends a year or 18 months waiting for trial and than walks. This might satisfy both parties to some extant.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

How about if he spends a year or 18 months waiting for trial and than walks. This might satisfy both parties to some extant.

Is there a conviction at the end of that?

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Is there a conviction at the end of that?

No he walks so there is no conviction on his record.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

How about if he spends a year or 18 months waiting for trial and than walks. This might satisfy both parties to some extant.

I don't expect he'll spend the interim period in jail

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

To be fair to the debate, a major contributor to these stats is not just the gun laws but also the legacy of disenfranchisement and racism brought about by slavery. This in combination with the relative lack of social infrasture (public education/health care) creates desperate situations for many in the USA.

Even if you were to institute extremely strict gun laws, that wouldn't stop young kids from being attracted to drug dealing gangs. This is where much of the gun violence in the USA comes from. Banning personal gun use isn't going to stop your local gang from having them.

Only 23 percent of murders in the US are by strangers, the vast majority are people who are aquainted with or related to their murderer.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But it may ultimately all be a moot point. As I've said before I gotta imagine both sides, prosecutor and defense both, probably do not want this circus going to trial. Do we really want or need Al and Jesse stroking the flames forever? A deal with some jail time still seems the likely outcome to me.

Jail time might be a death sentence for Zimmerman if he is not in protective custody?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Only 23 percent of murders in the US are by strangers, the vast majority are people who are aquainted with or related to their murderer.

Specifically, that quote was in reference to murders of people under the age of 18. My guess is there is a relatively high proportion of people in their late teens who are murdered as a result of gang violence. Whereas for people in their 20s, many of the murders probably arise out of romantic disputes.

And also although only 23 percent of murders might be by strangers, not all murders are by guns. Of the stranger murders, I'd bet most are commited by guns.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

Specifically, that quote was in reference to murders of people under the age of 18. My guess is there is a relatively high proportion of people in their late teens who are murdered as a result of gang violence. Whereas for people in their 20s, many of the murders probably arise out of romantic disputes.

And also although only 23 percent of murders might be by strangers, not all murders are by guns. Of the stranger murders, I'd bet most are commited by guns.

2/3rds of all killings in US are guns

most of the us is white and surberban or rural, very very few gangs exist relative to the population.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Thats why I'd expect Zimmerman to go to a county facility and not a state prison, substantially less chance anything happens to him. And with him going to invoke "SYG" I'd be shocked if he didn't get bail.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck

Every single study done on gun defense points to millions of instances where civilians use their guns to deter a crime.

http://www.fff.org/freedom/fd0210e.asp

"Gun-control advocates look at guns only as a means to harm others even though they are more often used to prevent injury. According to a 1995 study entitled “Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense with a Gun” by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz, published by the Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology at Northwestern University School of Law, law-abiding citizens use guns to defend themselves against criminals as many as 2.5 million times every year."

"Other studies give similar results. “Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms,” by the Clinton administration’s Justice Department shows that between 1.5 and 3 million people in the United States use a firearm to defend themselves and others from criminals each year. A 1986 study by Hart Research Associates puts the upper limit at 3.2 million."

So all these organizations are presenting "bunk" numbers?
People don't use their guns for defense at all?

Do you check you facts before you post them????????

1. Many studies more well designed than the one that came up with the 2.5 million actually come up to 46000 and 80000-82000 (National Crime victimization Survey). So no, all studies are not in the millions, in fact, not many are. Bunk

2. The 2.5 million in the 1995 Study by Kleck has been proven to be bunk many, many times by the the very paper you next refer to and by the people I mentioned earlier. It is also quite vigorously shown to be bunk here:

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2000/01/duncan1.php

You simply cannot extrapolate what 56 positive responses from gun owners say to actual events of 100 million citizens. That is terrible science, even you would know that. The p value is so out of range that it should have been embarrassing for anyone who knows anything about science to even mention, yet gun advocates use it. Astounding...bunk even

3. You quote “Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms,” by the Clinton administration. If you read it, which you can here:

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles/165476.pdf

It's sole assertion is that these phone surveys DO NOT provide any useable data. In fact, here is a direct quote for you: "Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack" Yet you quote it to support your assertion? Yes....bunk

4. You quote an imaginary study done by Hart Reasearch Associate for well-known gun advocator John Lott. Apparently, Lott paid for this study to be done and the results were given to him by phone. He "forgot" to get any data from them. Interestingly, the Hart Research Associates do not have any knowledge of doing this study. In fact, the only source one can find is a leaflet that sources Lott for the figures (Blackman, Paul H.n.d. "Armed Citizens and Crime Control" (leaflet, 4 pp.). Fairfax, VA: National Rifle Association.) So, yes......bunk.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by valo403

I don't expect he'll spend the interim period in jail

Yeah, probably not unless there was a deal, well not a deal but an understanding.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Getting kinda back on track, the judge in the case has offered to recuse herself because her husband has some ties to CNN. Seems like a stretch of an excuse. Makes me wonder if any judges want any part of this case

Seems legit to me. Her husband is partners with a CNN legal analyst contractually obligated to make comments on the case. If something goes wrong in the case there would be plenty of tinfoil hat worthy inferences

[missdpuck]

If you lived here you'd want a gun too. ;(

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

One of these pro gun posters used a theatre killing of unarmed people as an example of the need for people to carry guns.
Can you imagine if somebody shot somebody in a dark theatre and everybody else had a gun.

To be honest it wasn't inside the theater it was outside of the place by the ticket window.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by valo403

I agree, I think we're past the point of simply banning guns (not that there's anyway it could be done politically or legally). I do think that something lik Captain's plan of heavily punish any gun crime would be effective, but then we open the door to mass incarceration, which is already a problem in the US.

There's already a massive problem, the real question is how do we fix it without simply shifting it to another area. I don't know that I have an answer, but I do know that more guns isn't it.

It's a great idea, the best way to fix the over population is by legalizing marijuana. that would help and I totally agree with the UBER strict punishment for breaking the law with a firearm.