The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Thing is this only works if you think the audience is the smart people who would normally watch political debates. Given the broader appeal of this one, the empty superficial moralizing might actually have the stronger effect. I agree that I'd much prefer if she did what you say and wish that sort of thing was what would convince the majority of people, but I'm more and more cynical about that. She's not really worried about winning over people like you and me.

I agree: any type of critical eye/ear will be dismissing Trump's usual nonsense in the same way we always have, and will be pleased that whatever comes out of Hillary's mouth will resemble rational thinking.

But if you aren't swayed already, or are wavering between the two, I think your critical eye/ear may be blind and dumb, so Hillary should probably go with the superficial stuff.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 2 (AP/GfK); Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 10, Stein 4 (McClatchy/Marist)

Couple more national polls again showing Trump cannot get out of the 30's in four way races. Even after a month where it pretty much went all well for him and totally wrong for her. So he still needs her to stumble a bit more (possible) or to make himself look better (unlikely) to get into a good range where he can win. In the 30's he needs Gary Johnson over 15% and that seems highly unlikely.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Thing is this only works if you think the audience is the smart people who would normally watch political debates. Given the broader appeal of this one, the empty superficial moralizing might actually have the stronger effect. I agree that I'd much prefer if she did what you say and wish that sort of thing was what would convince the majority of people, but I'm more and more cynical about that. She's not really worried about winning over people like you and me.

Except the people who watch the debates are generally political junkies and undecideds. Trump's supporters won't watch the debates, they'll just wait for him and Fox News to tell them how well he did in them.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The first Obama/Romney debate had over 67 million viewers, and there's some (delusional) thought this debate could do over 100 million. There is not that many undecideds and political junkies.

[Lanny_McDonald]

The only numbers that matter. Clinton's negatives are 12 points better than Trumps. That means 12% of the population like her more than Trump, meaning she is still more electable. The other numbers that matter are the electoral college. Trump still does not have a path to 270 votes. Clinton is already there and leading in swing states that make her lead even larger. Trump has to steal several states from Clinton, and that doesn't seem likely because of his negatives.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

These kinds of numbers should be taken with a sizeable grain of salt, but CNN reports that early voting and registration numbers look generally good for Clinton in North Carolina (where early voting has started), Florida and Colorado.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/23/politi...ats/index.html

I think it is worth viewing that kind of data with a high degree of skepticism, but it is one data point nevertheless. What would worry me if I'm Clinton is the high number of "independent" voters in NC, and the fact that she actually lags Obama in terms of a voter registration edge in Florida.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by New Era

Trump still does not have a path to 270 votes.

Spoiler!

There's three. You might think they're less likely, and I'd agree, but saying he doesn't have a path is wrong.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

These kinds of numbers should be taken with a sizeable grain of salt, but CNN reports that early voting and registration numbers look generally good for Clinton in North Carolina (where early voting has started), Florida and Colorado.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/23/politi...ats/index.html

I think it is worth viewing that kind of data with a high degree of skepticism, but it is one data point nevertheless. What would worry me if I'm Clinton is the high number of "independent" voters in NC, and the fact that she actually lags Obama in terms of a voter registration edge in Florida.

Yeah this was posted from NC earlier in the week.



https://twitter.com/ElectProject/sta...51801605709825

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Spoiler!

There's three. You might think they're less likely, and I'd agree, but saying he doesn't have a path is wrong.

You'll notice I said Trump has to steal several states from Clinton to have a chance. Considering polling trends, that is highly unlikely. You could toss out a map where Trump takes California too. It is a possibility, but there is no reality to that particular scenario. There is more of a chance that Clinton turns Arizona, Nevada (already a likely Clinton win), and Texas before Trump turns the number of states you're suggesting in any of those maps. There is a possible path, then there is a realistic path. Trump currently holds no realistic path to 270 electoral votes.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by New Era

You'll notice I said Trump has to steal several states from Clinton to have a chance. Considering polling trends, that is highly unlikely. You could toss out a map where Trump takes California too. It is a possibility, but there is no reality to that particular scenario. There is more of a chance that Clinton turns Arizona, Nevada (already a likely Clinton win), and Texas before Trump turns the number of states you're suggesting in any of those maps. There is a possible path, then there is a realistic path. Trump currently holds no realistic path to 270 electoral votes.

Yes he does. Again winning Wisconsin + Colorado is all he needs with current polling, and recent polls suggest he's inside the margin of error or close in both those states. You need to stop acting like it's utterly impossible for him to win. His odds on 538 are pretty much spot on right now, 40%. And there's still a good 20% of voters who are undecided or whose minds could change. If she bombs the debate Monday it's a 50/50 race, without a doubt. I know that terrifies you, but acting like it can't happen is exactly how it will happen.

[troutman]

Clinton up 1.9% in last week to 63.1% at Betting Odds:

https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html

[ben voyonsdonc]

I don't think Johnson will pull on election day as well as he is polling today. It will be interesting to see who the people who have parked their vote with him today will actually support on election day. Reports seem to indicate that he is actually pulling more people the Democrats than the Republicans so that could be good news for Clinton.

[Senator Clay Davis]

^Polling shows that too when head to heads become fourway races. Johnson was polling around 5% going into the 2012 election and got 1% when votes were actually tallied. I do think for Hillary it's more beneficial to have the race appear close to ensure those people do vote for her. If it looks like she'll win easily according the polls, it could cause people to think "She's going to win, so I can vote Johnson and it'll be fine", which is what Trump needs.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

If she bombs the debate Monday it's a 50/50 race, without a doubt.

I think something monumentally stupid would have to happen for her to "bomb" the debate. Trump doesn't have the command of the issues to "win" the debate the best he can do is exceed his (low) expectations. I fully expect everyone to declare victory regardless of what actually transpires

The debate is IMO more dangerous for Trump then it is Clinton. He doesn't have good control over his emotions and his tendency to try and turn everything into some kind of dominance contest strikes me as meaning we're more likely to see him turn into a complete ####### when challenged.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Fair or not if she shows up and looks tired and old and haggard, that's bombing the debate no matter what she says and what he says. For Trump as I said his bar is so exceptionally low he almost can't lose the debate. In fact I don't see how he can lose it short of going totally off the rails. Could that happen? Of course it could, but given how his surrogates and advisers are out there "worried" he'll be a mess, it's a classic set up to him being very boring and contained.

[troutman]

Biden v. Palin:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...l_debate,_2008

Much interest leading up to the debate stemmed from Governor Palin's poorly handled interviews conducted in the weeks leading up to the event; many of her responses were the brunt of severe criticism,[12][13][14] and a poll in early October from the Pew Research Center showed that the number of people who believed Palin was qualified to serve as president had dropped to 37% from 52% in early September. Consequently, the vice-presidential debate was largely seen as an opportunity for further destruction or redemption on Palin's part. Several polls suggested that Biden had won the debate;[15][16] although, many observers were surprised by Palin's speaking abilities and knowledge of John McCain's policies.[17] CNN polls found Biden won 51 to 36.[18] It is widely agreed that both candidates accurately followed the "do no harm" guideline of vice-presidential debates. James Taylor, professor of political science at the University of San Francisco commented, "[Palin] resuscitated herself, but I'm not sure she did quite enough to do anything for John McCain." He added "Biden demonstrated he knows John McCain better than Sarah Palin does. She couldn't offer rebuttals during the depth of discussions. She read the Cliff Notes on McCain, and Biden has known John McCain."[19]

According to a poll of uncommitted voters conducted immediately after the debate by CBS News and the former Knowledge Network, 46% thought Senator Biden won the debate, 21% thought Governor Palin had won, and 33% thought it was a tie.[20] Fox News Channel held a poll regarding the performance of each candidate, with 51% of the votes in favor of Biden, and 39% in favor of Palin.[21] The Opinion Research Corporation's poll on the debate revealed that 51% of viewers felt Biden had won, while 36% were in favor of Palin. In the same poll, 87% said Biden was capable of fulfilling the duties of the vice presidency, while 42% said Palin was capable. Palin was considered more likable however, scoring 54% to Biden's 36%.[21] Mark Halperin of Time graded both candidates' performances a B.[22][23]

The event overall was widely described as having little effect on the 2008 presidential race,[16] although a CBS News poll found that the presidential race tightened following the vice-presidential debate, with the Obama-Biden lead falling from 9 points to 4 points.[24]

[GGG]

I think people saying no possible path are underestimating Trumps chances. If their is an underlying polling bias of about 2% or greater Trump wins the election.

Florida, Ohio, Nevada, NC, New Hampshire, Maines 2nd is a reasonable path to victory. I think ones that include Michigan are less likely but Hillary underperformed her primary significantly.

The key firewall though is the 40% ceiling. If he can't break through that as the 3rd party decrease its over.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think people saying no possible path are underestimating Trumps chances.

Well of course... any statement that proclaims there is a 0% chance of something is wrong on the face of it. But I don't think the likelihood is 50-50 either. Clinton easily just had the worst two weeks of her campaign and Trump didn't draw even. Sure she could have more bad weeks... but I don't think that's any more likely then Trump having more bad weeks.

Her campaign still has...

A: More money
B: A better ground game
C: Better (albeit of the less bad variety) favorable/unfavorable rating

Originally Posted by GGG

If their is an underlying polling bias of about 2% or greater Trump wins the election.

And if there isn't any then she wins, if it's polling bias the other way she wins by an Obama 2012 margin. It's silly to fret about the maybe's of a polling bias because you don't know that any exist, that if it exists it's against Trump, and in all likelihood (in the aggregate) it doesn't. I'm as terrified about the prospect of Donald Trump having codes to a nuclear arsenal but now is not the time to freak out. If Trump is ahead in enough states to get 270 electoral college votes in a months time... that's the time to start building your bunker.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yes he does. Again winning Wisconsin + Colorado is all he needs with current polling, and recent polls suggest he's inside the margin of error or close in both those states.

So if EVERYTHING, and I mean EVERYTHING, breaks Trump's way, he's got an outside possibility at winning this thing!

You need to stop acting like it's utterly impossible for him to win.

Sure, that's a possibility, but maybe you need to start looking deeper into the statistics and not investing so heavily in just the polls?

His odds on 538 are pretty much spot on right now, 40%.

Which means he's polling almost exactly by party lines. It also means he's polling slightly better than his negatives. That means he's over-performing. Going beyond where he is would require people to over-look the unlikability gap (20 points!), which has traditionally been very difficult for voters to get past. The fact that he is above that right now usually means he won't go much higher, not without the likability number shifting, and it has been trending in the other direction.

And there's still a good 20% of voters who are undecided or whose minds could change.

Undecideds rarely break for the more extreme candidate. That is something Clinton and every analyst has in their back pocket. The undecided numbers play well for Clinton.

If she bombs the debate Monday it's a 50/50 race, without a doubt.

What happens if Trump bombs? What happen if Trump looks like the incompetent fool that people know he is? Again, you're already counting on every single thing going Trump's way. Every swing state is going his way. The margin of error is breaking Trumps way every where. Hillary Clinton is going #### herself on national TV and Trump is going to come off looking like someone ready to lead the free world. "Without a doubt."

I know that terrifies you, but acting like it can't happen is exactly how it will happen.

It doesn't terrify me. It actually makes me laugh. I know how ####ing stupid Americans are, and just how often they will cut off their nose to spite their face. But I can't believe that Americans, no matter how stupid the vast majority of them are, are dumb enough to vote a mindless racist reality TV bully into the highest office in the land. Those undecideds you talk about are the ones I trust will make this election not even close.

Here you go Senator. This should give you wood. Trump is a shoo-in.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...mes-correctly/

[Senator Clay Davis]

Holy ####ing ####, and I got accused of being a Hillary defender? Lol.