The bubble finally deflating. not bursting.............

[calgaryblood]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

My realtor says it is a great time to buy


Edit: Should add, also says its a great time to sell.

Lol of course a realtor would say that when you're looking to buy and sell through him.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

That's just an old cliche. When I talk about investing, I mean buying a rental property or a property that I plan on flipping and selling, stocks, bonds and mutual funds. I don't consider my home I live in as an investment because you HAVE to live somewhere.

I would suggest your income, and ability to invest, is far above the average person.

Sure it's an old cliche, but there is a strong element of truth in it. Most people will go the the nth degree to educate themselves with regard to doing what earns them their livelihood, yet spend very little time on learning about what may greatly impact their quality of life, the people they come in contact with, and even their retirement.

[White Out 403]

One nice thing about moving is the market corrections or adjustments don't mean much. If I have to take 5% less on my house cuz of the market, then I'm likely to recoup that savings in the purchase and vice versa.

[dubc80]

I can add some personal experience to this thread.

I looked for 5 months from May until September of last year for a new home for me, the wife, 2 young kids, and dog. Moved into our place in November (finally!!!)

To be honest, we had a lot of trouble finding something we liked.

Much to my surprise many of the nice houses in our price range (Up to $550K) and in the areas we liked sold for close to list price if not over list price, usually very quickly.

The house we ended up buying we put in an offer the day it hit the market after seeing it, and there was a competing offer from someone who also viewed it that day.

In short, nice houses in good areas priced well are still selling like hot cakes. In my honest uneducated opinion, now is a pretty good time to buy if you're looking. Especially if you see something nice in your price range. I missed out on a few places because I waited thinking the price would drop.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by dubc80

I can add some personal experience to this thread.

...

Our experience in 2016 was actually very similar to dubc80. We had a pretty good idea of what we were looking for (both location and house) and the "good stuff" would usually sell within days.

At the risk of generalizing, if you're buying a cookie cutter in the suburbs, or a condo with multiple units for sale in the same/neighboring building, you can be a little more patient because the demand is probably a little lower and the supply a little higher. But if there is something particular you are looking for, I would keep looking and jump if the opportunity presents itself (it's unclear whether the OP has been "watching the market" via what properties are listing for, or actively visiting/shopping for houses). This is especially true in the lower end of the market (i.e. sub $500k for a detached SFH) -- I'd expect to see less movement versus higher end stuff.

Originally Posted by troutman

Last month we saw some homes in NW communities like Tuscany sell quickly with multiple offers, and realizing close to or above list price.

Agreed. Without de-railing the thread, I've been told the housing market in Tuscany is pretty... unique.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

I have been following the market fairly closely as we are looking to buy in the next little while. However, with rent so appealing it is hard to justify. Seems the effect of the economy is finally being felt by the market. I have noticces about a 35,000-50,000 drop in the various houses we are watching. Predictions look like it may be worth waiting a little longer. Thoughts?

http://calgaryherald.com/business/lo...verage-in-2016

Since you've been waiting for prices to become more reasonable, I'd wait some more as prices should drop more as the price adjustment has just gotten started thanks to rule / policy changes by lenders and the government.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Agreed. Without de-railing the thread, I've been told the housing market in Tuscany is pretty... unique.

As someone who lives a couple neighbourhoods over from there and has considered moving to Tuscany, I'd be curious to hear why

Maybe send me a PM if you don't want to derail thread.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Swingers ahoy

[Sluggo]

What? Vancouver did not collapse then soon after Toronto and then the rest of the country implodes as the banks try to recoup their losses through interest rate increases? Fun story, but the big one is getting quite ripe.

[afc wimbledon]

My two cents worth, right now the market is in a place where I would buy something if it ticked all of my boxes, price, location type and quality of property.

If I couldn't find pretty much exactly what I wanted I would be happy to stay out of it, as I suspect there is still large drops to come out of Toronto and Vancouver and they will depress the rest of the country to a lesser degree, I also think we have to see interest rates going up eventually and that will knock the snot out of the market, but these may take years not months and if I found exactly what I liked now and could afford it, or so and was also sure I could afford it when interest rates creep back up to 6 percent I'd buy.

[dubc80]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

What neighbourhoods do people think hold value right now?

The areas straight west of Downtown hold their value really well due to location to downtown and the west leg of the c-train.

Strathcona, Springbank Hill, Coach Hill, Aspen, West Springs, Christie Park, etc.

I found mediocre houses in those areas sold really fast, for what I would personally consider bad value. But, people love that area. Me included.

[troutman]

I was surprised to see these CREB sales stats, comparing 2016 to 2015

December up 6.14%
November down 2.77%
October up 15.61%
September up 2.35%

[snootchiebootchies]

I saw this too. My understanding was that the spike in sales in September and October were a result of buyers taking advantage of the old mortgage rules. The new rules took effect in mid-October. Not sure what happened in December but December sales numbers are historically more anomalous.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by dubc80

The areas straight west of Downtown hold their value really well due to location to downtown and the west leg of the c-train.

Strathcona, Springbank Hill, Coach Hill, Aspen, West Springs, Christie Park, etc.

I found mediocre houses in those areas sold really fast, for what I would personally consider bad value. But, people love that area. Me included.

You don't have to go that far west of the downtown i.e. Wildwood, Westgate, Killarney, Rosscarock, Glamorgan, etc.

I have lived in Wildwood for almost half a century, and enjoyed being only 8 minutes from downtown.

It's all a matter of risk. If you have:

- a secure job with enough income

- found what you want in a house

- have a reasonable down payment

- can live with higher interest rates...

then in the long run, you probably won't loose on your investment.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

It's all a matter of risk. If you have:

- a secure job with enough income

- found what you want in a house

- have a reasonable down payment

- can live with higher interest rates...

then in the long run, you probably won't loose on your investment.

I think another way to look at it is to have a small a down payment to mitigate your risk. Losing a 100k down payment is much sadder than a 10k down payment. The 90k difference in your payment is a couple hundred a month in interest. But realistically you could offset that by putting the 90k to work in some way. If I'm going down I'd rather have less to lose than more.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by troutman

I was surprised to see these CREB sales stats, comparing 2016 to 2015

December up 6.14%
November down 2.77%
October up 15.61%
September up 2.35%

Are those percentages increases/decreases in prices or number of sales?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I think another way to look at it is to have a small a down payment to mitigate your risk. Losing a 100k down payment is much sadder than a 10k down payment. The 90k difference in your payment is a couple hundred a month in interest. But realistically you could offset that by putting the 90k to work in some way. If I'm going down I'd rather have less to lose than more.

On the other hand, if you get CMHC you are personally liable for the mortgage, so default may mean bankruptcy and getting sued for your other assets.

For uninsured loans, my understanding is they're non recourse in AB. So while a default would hit your credit, you don't lose your other assets.

Maybe one of CPS lawyers can confirm, bring that is my understanding.

So the bigger down payment might reduce your risk in other ways.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

On the other hand, if you get CMHC you are personally liable for the mortgage, so default may mean bankruptcy and getting sued for your other assets.

For uninsured loans, my understanding is they're non recourse in AB. So while a default would hit your credit, you don't lose your other assets.

Maybe one of CPS lawyers can confirm, bring that is my understanding.

So the bigger down payment might reduce your risk in other ways.

Yes you're totally right. The personal covenant would definitely make you liable for the short fall.

[snootchiebootchies]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Are those percentages increases/decreases in prices or number of sales?

Number of sales. And I believe those stats are for overall sales (detached + attached + condos).

[DiNaMo]

I'm really puzzled as year-over-year prices as posted by CREB have been positive every month from October-January and sales are off to a strong pace this new year at 20% more then 2016 so far. Ironically this time period corresponds to the stricter mortgage rules and mortgage rate increases.

What gives? Is $50/bbl all it took to stabilize the Calgary real estate market? Is now the time to buy (always is right)?