Stockton Heat 2016/17 General Discussion

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I am with you. Maybe I am a fossil but seems weird that goals for/against when you're on the ice is less important than shots for/against.

I don't think much of +/-, but I also don't think much of Corsi. They each have their place, but too many use them as the basis of a discussion when they should be nothing more than supporting facts.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Maybe I am a fossil but seems weird that goals for/against when you're on the ice is less important than shots for/against.

It shouldn't. Think of it this way... say your average game features an average of 5ish goals, 50ish shots, and 75ish shot attempts. The sample size of goals (even long term) is comparatively small but the others are relatively large. Way more signal in tracking individual on ice shot differential and a whole lot more noise in on individual on ice even strength goal differential. It says more and says it with significantly greater certainty.

Doesn't Bobby Orr have the record for best plus/minus in a single season?

It'd be hard to top Gretzky's 84-85 tally of +98 (Gretzky also once had a -25). +/- is a poor stat

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Doesn't Bobby Orr have the record for best plus/minus in a single season?

Originally Posted by Parallex

It'd be hard to top Gretzky's 84-85 tally of +98 (Gretzky also once had a -25). +/- is a poor stat

1970/71 - Orr had a +124 season

[sureLoss]

highlights:

http://ahl.neulion.com/ahl/video/san...ton-heat/15947

and some other angles:

[EldrickOnIce]

Pribyl goal a real snipe

[Alberta_Beef]

looked like Gillies didn't have much of a chance on 3 or 4 of those, the rebounds he gave up on 2 of the goals were unavoidable due to the quality of chance, the defense needs to be in there clearing the puck or stopping guys from getting extra whacks. Can't blame him on the deflection goal either. The wrap-around goal is hard to tell as they never showed why Gillies was so far out of position. The first though, looked to be on him.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

looked like Gillies didn't have much of a chance on 3 or 4 of those, the rebounds he gave up on 2 of the goals were unavoidable due to the quality of chance, the defense needs to be in there clearing the puck or stopping guys from getting extra whacks. Can't blame him on the deflection goal either. The wrap-around goal is hard to tell as they never showed why Gillies was so far out of position. The first though, looked to be on him.

Yeah, the wrap-around goal was on Gillies IMO. He lost his post by a foot or more when the player had the puck behind the goal line on the one side. That made it way too far for him to go when the player took the puck to the other side.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yeah, the wrap-around goal was on Gillies IMO. He lost his post by a foot or more when the player had the puck behind the goal line on the one side. That made it way too far for him to go when the player took the puck to the other side.

I appreciate the info, was impossible to tell in the video.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

It shouldn't. Think of it this way... say your average game features an average of 5ish goals, 50ish shots, and 75ish shot attempts. The sample size of goals (even long term) is comparatively small but the others are relatively large. Way more signal in tracking individual on ice shot differential and a whole lot more noise in on individual on ice even strength goal differential. It says more and says it with significantly greater certainty.



It'd be hard to top Gretzky's 84-85 tally of +98 (Gretzky also once had a -25). +/- is a poor stat

I'll take actual results over tries any days.

[sureLoss]

Adirondack Thunder @ECHLThunder
Forward Matt Bailey has been assigned from the @AHLHeat to the #ADKThunder! ~

[devo22]

great to see that Klimchuk is producing at the pro level. Seemed to do a lot of good things last year if I remember correctly, but failed to get on the scoreboard consistently. Good to see that he's had such a great start to the year. Now if they could get Poirier going again too ...

Mangiapane doesn't seem to have troubles adjusting to the pro game, that's a great sign too. Jankowski now has 11 points in his first 12 pro games ... he probably won't be the first callup, but I have a feeling that once he's recalled by the Flames, he sticks in the NHL for good.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Parallex

It shouldn't. Think of it this way... say your average game features an average of 5ish goals, 50ish shots, and 75ish shot attempts. The sample size of goals (even long term) is comparatively small but the others are relatively large. Way more signal in tracking individual on ice shot differential and a whole lot more noise in on individual on ice even strength goal differential. It says more and says it with significantly greater certainty.



It'd be hard to top Gretzky's 84-85 tally of +98 (Gretzky also once had a -25). +/- is a poor stat

Gretzky was - 25? That seems impossible unless it was at end of his career. I understand the argument in tracking shot differential and I don't want to sidetrack the discussion but not all shot attempts are equal. But all goals count the same.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Gretzky was - 25? That seems impossible unless it was at end of his career.

he was -25 in 93/94 when he scored 130 points for the Kings. Also -20 a year later in the lockout shortened season and -23 in his final season.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...y.php?pid=2035

[zyzz]

How's Eat Bread looking

[Racki]

Originally Posted by zyzz

How's Eat Bread looking

Like an absolute steal in the fifth round. He is tied for second on the team in points with 2-3-5 in his first 4 games as a pro.

[hockey.modern]

Originally Posted by Racki

Like an absolute steal in the fifth round. He is tied for second on the team in points with 2-3-5 in his first 4 games as a pro.

6th round.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Gretzky was - 25? That seems impossible unless it was at end of his career. I understand the argument in tracking shot differential and I don't want to sidetrack the discussion but not all shot attempts are equal. But all goals count the same.

No they're not all equal... but they all say one thing equally, that your team had the puck. Goals say that to but they only say it relatively few times a year while shots and shot attempts say it frequently enough that you can glean insight from it's measurement.

Hense why +/- stinks. It doesn't say anything meaningful. It says you were on the ice when a goal happened... not whether you meaningfully contributed to that goal just that you were somewhere in the vacinity... whoopty-doo.

[Calgary4LIfe]

To continue a nice side-tracked conversation, I don't think all goals are equal.

Game winners trump all. Blowout goals shouldn't be equally weighted with close games either.

edit: OT goals, playoff goals, OT playoff goals.. and especially game 7 OT goals for the Stanley cup final (what kid doesn't dream of those goals?).

[Roof-Daddy]

For those wondering, according to Huska in this article Young Defense Corps Key In Early Season Success Culkin isn't expected to miss too much time.

Hopefully that is correct. I honestly feel like Culkin is every bit as good as Kulak, I just wish the guy could stay healthy.

Unfortunately, amidst the positivity of a gutty win, the Heat did lose Culkin to an upper-body injury early in the first. Luckily for Culkin, Coach Huska said after the game that he didn’t expect his young blueliner to miss too much time and luckily for the Heat they were able to pull out the win.

“When you lose a key guy like [Ryan Culkin] early, it’s huge to have everyone step up like that – especially with a couple younger guys in the lineup,” forward Morgan Klimchuk said. “It’s what you want to see and I think it’s really encouraging. That’s what you need to win on the road.”

Heat play in Tucson tonight. 8:05pm MST

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No they're not all equal... but they all say one thing equally, that your team had the puck. Goals say that to but they only say it relatively few times a year while shots and shot attempts say it frequently enough that you can glean insight from it's measurement.

Hense why +/- stinks. It doesn't say anything meaningful. It says you were on the ice when a goal happened... not whether you meaningfully contributed to that goal just that you were somewhere in the vacinity... whoopty-doo.

Umm, the exact same thing is true for shots and CORSI.

Yes, you are right that sample size is an issue for goals, and that shots, having the advantage of more events, means that the data is less muffled by noise.

But that is where it ends, and that is the problem that gets left undiscussed.

CORSI has more data points (shots), therefore we can have more confidence in the consistency, or quality of the statistics - i.e., less affected by noise.

True. Great.

The problem is that it is more confident information about a less useful item.

Shots are mostly meaningless. The object of the game is not to get shots.

The problem with CORSI is that it (more accurately) tracks the wrong thing.

Because goals don't happen enough, shots are tracked as a proxy for goals. But they are not a very good proxy. That's the problem.