Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Kind of amusing that all of the above are things that Brad Treliving did during the last rebuild and nobody really faulted him for it.

Treliving did the opposite of those things. He traded a 1st and two 2nd round picks TWICE (Hamilton, Hamonic).

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I’m not sure what your point is in bringing up the last Flames rebuild.

But, if you’re arbitrarily starting Calgary’s stockpiling of talent at the Zary draft, then good news! They’re already 4 of the 6 years into the stockpiling of talent you’re looking for. Though I have a feeling you aren’t actually talking about drafting 24th overall for a few years.

To show how long the last “rebuild” actually took. It doesn’t matter when they stopped calling it one - the last time they drafted top-10 was 2016, so the “rebuild” was functionally complete at that point. They sank and swam on their own merit.

The talent Calgary has drafted over the last few years hopefully proves to be solid depth. This is a step in the right direction over the last time.

People focus on Bennett not working out - that was huge, but Klimchuk and Poirier being complete non-factors, Jankowski being a 4th line marshmallow, Valimaki failing to become a contributor - four first round busts. It’s the equivalent of signing a player to a max off sheet, except you only got Mark Jankowski out of it.

Even if they do hit on all their top picks over the next three years, it’s likely 3-4 years before those picks are capable of carrying the mail for an NHL team.

So they’re probably still gonna be bad for 3-5 years, no matter what happens.

Let’s hope they make their picks count.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I am curious as to how much experience you have managing companies.

Obviously I'm not going to post personal details of my career on here, but i have mid level management experience in a large corporate setting.

Whats your point? I never said I was a a CEO.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

To show how long the last “rebuild” actually took. It doesn’t matter when they stopped calling it one - the last time they drafted top-10 was 2016, so the “rebuild” was functionally complete at that point. They sank and swam on their own merit.

The talent Calgary has drafted over the last few years hopefully proves to be solid depth. This is a step in the right direction over the last time.

People focus on Bennett not working out - that was huge, but Klimchuk and Poirier being complete non-factors, Jankowski being a 4th line marshmallow, Valimaki failing to become a contributor - four first round busts. It’s the equivalent of signing a player to a max off sheet, except you only got Mark Jankowski out of it.

Even if they do hit on all their top picks over the next three years, it’s likely 3-4 years before those picks are capable of carrying the mail for an NHL team.

So they’re probably still gonna be bad for 3-5 years, no matter what happens.

Let’s hope they make their picks count.

Then I think you’re inadvertently making my point. The last rebuild took too long and the Flames had nothing to show for it outside of two trips to the second round (one very early). By the time they were actually close to being considered legitimate contenders, their two stars were ready to enter the final “big” contract of their careers.

At that point, you’re pretty much forced into retooling or starting over, which is what Florida, Edmonton, Colorado, and Tampa Bay all had to do.

If this team is going to win a cup without having to go through this exact same thing within the next 6-8 years, they’re more likely going to do it in 4-5. We should expect a contender in 4, at very least, or face reality.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Then I think you’re inadvertently making my point. The last rebuild took too long and the Flames had nothing to show for it outside of two trips to the second round (one very early). By the time they were actually close to being considered legitimate contenders, their two stars were ready to enter the final “big” contract of their careers.

At that point, you’re pretty much forced into retooling or starting over, which is what Florida, Edmonton, Colorado, and Tampa Bay all had to do.

If this team is going to win a cup without having to go through this exact same thing within the next 6-8 years, they’re more likely going to do it in 4-5. We should expect a contender in 4, at very least, or face reality.

I tend to agree that you don't want this to go on too long or it starts creating it's own self fulfilling narrative.

That's why it's so important to not waste your playoff misses and actually get those early picks when you're out of it.
We're two years out of playoffs now with a 16th oa and 9th oa (probably..) to show for it.
Ending up with another early teens pick next season and losing it to the Habs would be really tough for this club.

If you can get to the bottom for 2 years, get some early picks and then get back in the mix quick, that's ideal.
It's a really tricky balance to hit though and we're not trending well so far for it.

[Goriders]

Dallas just lost to Vegas. Might want to put the template on the shelf for now.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Then I think you’re inadvertently making my point. The last rebuild took too long and the Flames had nothing to show for it outside of two trips to the second round (one very early). By the time they were actually close to being considered legitimate contenders, their two stars were ready to enter the final “big” contract of their careers.

At that point, you’re pretty much forced into retooling or starting over, which is what Florida, Edmonton, Colorado, and Tampa Bay all had to do.

If this team is going to win a cup without having to go through this exact same thing within the next 6-8 years, they’re more likely going to do it in 4-5. We should expect a contender in 4, at very least, or face reality.

Tkachuk was 25, Gaudreau would’ve been 29, and they would’ve continued to dominate together.

Lindholm would’ve continued to be an 80 point centre and would have extended, which we would have wanted.

Markstrom wouldn’t be on his way out, he’d just be backstopped by Wolf.

Hanifin probably stays too.

It would’ve opened up a whole new window, where they could pull another Hamilton style trade.

The two best players abandoned them. Trying to patch over shah with Huberdeau and Kadri was a bad decision on ownership’s part, motivated by ego and hurt feelings.

They misjudged how excited this market would be to watch a bad team with exciting young players who try.

[Hackey]

The only thing we have that resembles the Dallas model is the old overpaid pieces. The pieces nobody wants but are stuck with. Any of the difficult pieces to find we have none of them. We're closer to the San Jose model except we have no Top 3 pick next year.

[Bingo]

You don't want a true rebuild to go on too long, but what if by principal it never ends?

I think a market like Calgary ... one that is likely on the list of the bottom ten most desirable places to play these days (would improve with winning and a new building, but the US vs Canada thing is real) should be more proactive and almost stay in a perpetual rebuild.

Set some mandates to loosely follow (a rule but one that can be deferred in winning seasons):

- don't sign players past their mid 30s
- don't have more than two key players as UFAs in the same season
- never walk a player to free agency if he has value
- never go into a draft with less than 7 picks

Keep the roster turning over with a large band of young players, prospects and picks, and look for that lightning in a bottle period of two or three years.

If you draft and develop well you would be a solid hockey team for a long long time and wouldn't be betting on an aging core to make the playoffs past their due date.

[sa226]

My interpretation of the Dallas model is Benn/Seguin =Kadri/Huberdeau

2 large contracts no longer earning their paycheck, but contributing in meaningful ways while the youth takeover the team.

That's it.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Treliving did the opposite of those things. He traded a 1st and two 2nd round picks TWICE (Hamilton, Hamonic).

Hamilton trade was fine. Hamonic, not so much. I think that is one of the things that Conroy talked about. It isn't always about picks, if you can get a player D+2 or D+3m then that is something you look at. Chances are those players don't come by often (like Hamilton) because teams value them.

To a lot of the points made already, getting a player semi developed accelerates things because you aren't waiting for that player to season and develop. I personally think that is one of the reasons the Flames are closer to a retool vs a rebuild. They have a bunch of prospects that are starting to separate themselves and show potential. I think the class from last year is intriguing with the first 4 picks plus Hunter. 5 guys from that draft would help since 2022 they are looking like they stuck out. Parker Bell is probably the last hope for that year.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by sa226

My interpretation of the Dallas model is Benn/Seguin =Kadri/Huberdeau

2 large contracts no longer earning their paycheck, but contributing in meaningful ways while the youth takeover the team.

That's it.

That, and not burning it to the ground.

Whether it is a Dallas model or not, the Flames are doing the right thing by not losing UFAs for nothing, giving younger players a chance and (hopefully) cashing in on a pretty good haul of draft picks.

I don't see much chance of them being good next year where the draft pick goes to MTL. Markstrom is a bit of a wild card, as he might get traded or he might just be average next year, which would result in a pretty terrible team. I am confident that they won't spend big money on UFAs, given what Conroy has said and done in the past year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Robbob

To a lot of the points made already, getting a player semi developed accelerates things because you aren't waiting for that player to season and develop. I personally think that is one of the reasons the Flames are closer to a retool vs a rebuild. They have a bunch of prospects that are starting to separate themselves and show potential. I think the class from last year is intriguing with the first 4 picks plus Hunter. 5 guys from that draft would help since 2022 they are looking like they stuck out. Parker Bell is probably the last hope for that year.

A retool suggests you already have a decent core of younger players to build around, but you are going to tweak that core.

Calgary does not have that young core to build around. They need to draft it, although Wolf hitting on all cylinders would certainly get things started.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

That, and not burning it to the ground.

Whether it is a Dallas model or not, the Flames are doing the right thing by not losing UFAs for nothing, giving younger players a chance and (hopefully) cashing in on a pretty good haul of draft picks.

I don't see much chance of them being good next year where the draft pick goes to MTL. Markstrom is a bit of a wild card, as he might get traded or he might just be average next year, which would result in a pretty terrible team. I am confident that they won't spend big money on UFAs, given what Conroy has said and done in the past year.

I would bet Conroy is licking his chops at the pathetic displays of goaltending from some of the “contenders”.

Markstrom will be gone by the draft.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

A retool suggests you already have a decent core of younger players to build around, but you are going to tweak that core.

Calgary does not have that young core to build around. They need to draft it, although Wolf hitting on all cylinders would certainly get things started.

That is why I said closer to. They don't have all the the pieces at this time to have a clear retool, on the other side they have a number of pieces, vets and younger players, that it won't be a complete rebuild.

[Toonage]

The Leafs 2024 1st for Markstrom? Hmm....that wouldn't be the craziest thing

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Robbob

That is why I said closer to. They don't have all the the pieces at this time to have a clear retool, on the other side they have a number of pieces, vets and younger players, that it won't be a complete rebuild.

Plus lets not pretend that either of the "R" words are defined to the point where any one person owns the definition.

If you see rebuild as a to the studs operation, than anything less than that could easily be called a retool.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You don't want a true rebuild to go on too long, but what if by principal it never ends?

I think a market like Calgary ... one that is likely on the list of the bottom ten most desirable places to play these days (would improve with winning and a new building, but the US vs Canada thing is real) should be more proactive and almost stay in a perpetual rebuild.

Set some mandates to loosely follow (a rule but one that can be deferred in winning seasons):

- don't sign players past their mid 30s
- don't have more than two key players as UFAs in the same season
- never walk a player to free agency if he has value
- never go into a draft with less than 7 picks

Keep the roster turning over with a large band of young players, prospects and picks, and look for that lightning in a bottle period of two or three years.

If you draft and develop well you would be a solid hockey team for a long long time and wouldn't be betting on an aging core to make the playoffs past their due date.

I couldn't agree more with this approach. To me it's more of a constant succession planning rather than truly rebuilding but I just wonder how we get to the place where we have enough of a solid enough asset foundation to do that. It only really works if you have enough of an asset base to be competitive to start with which takes being bad or being lucky. As much as scouting involves work there's a ton of luck involved in the player development when they aren't even playing for your program for the first 2-4 years after being drafted.

And I think citing "the Dallas model" is some deceptive stuff to be honest. Teams hit a homerun in the draft like dallas did in the heiskenen year incredible rarely and even when they did that they picked much higher than the flames. It's like saying, let's rely on luck and hope all our not great picks turn into stars.

I think the fans here would accept two years of weaker teams and frankly I think if Markstrom moves that's what they're doing anyway, just saying the right things in the media while doing something else knowing that Kadri, Andersson, Backlund etc will lose their minds and ticket sales might tank if they do anything else.

[saillias]

It doesn't inspire confidence to me that Conroy said this. Not that I have a problem with Dallas. What they've done is impressive. But to use them as a model specifically. It's very much we want to have our cake and eat it too. We're somehow going to draft better than everyone else without going through any pain.

It's sort of an unclear if not delusional vision. I almost wonder if it's a narrative for ownership more than anything. We know you only get franchise players from finishing last, but we have some good players so we can't, so we just have to draft better than everyone else somehow. Even though there are highly competent teams without the handicaps of our market, and many with larger budgets to spend on scouting than us.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Plus lets not pretend that either of the "R" words are defined to the point where any one person owns the definition.

If you see rebuild as a to the studs operation, than anything less than that could easily be called a retool.

The terminology is all PR anyway.