Russia invades Ukraine

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The most interesting suggestion I have heard this far is that Prigozhin will succeed Lukashenko as leader of Belarus.

Interesting take but how do you trust a guy that just did that to you?

He has shown himself to be a loose cannon. Now you give him a country?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The most interesting suggestion I have heard this far is that Prigozhin will succeed Lukashenko as leader of Belarus.

Or that Prighozin gets a new Belarusian column to take to Kyiv

[D as in David]

He's been told he'll have to lead Belarus' deep sea, carbon-fibre submersible program.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1672841786019172352

You know that propaganda works both ways. I truly don't understand your views though, you seem to be almost cheering for a Russian victory in this conflict or at least admiring Vladimir Putin, and somehow posting a tweet that describes him as David rather than Goliath.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

You know that propaganda works both ways. I truly don't understand your views though, you seem to be almost cheering for a Russian victory in this conflict or at least admiring Vladimir Putin, and somehow posting a tweet that describes him as David rather than Goliath.

The right is now no longer conservative, but militantly contrarian about everything. They're not "pro-Putin", so much as anti-establishment. If we sided with Putin they'd be pro-Zelensky. They believe everyday is opposite day because they are sick of not being the smartest person in the room so they stake out contrary opinions to hope for some feelings of superiority. The hilariously ironic part is that someone would earnestly post David Sacks saying this. He's been hilariously wrong so many times it beggars belief but is quite good at getting these fish to believe him.



Anyways, on to topical considerations, Michael Koffman had a good tweet about the failed mutiny and there's been a few other too (Dmitri Alperovich and others) that have had some commentary that seems to have maybe clarified things a bit. Seems Prigozhin was going to lose his company due to Shoigu's order that all mercenary groups were to disband and soldiers sign contracts with the MoD, and this was a last ditch attempt to force the issue. He's notoriously hot headed and not particularly bright. Seems like he was hoping portions of the MoD would join with him and as he realized that was not happening he got cold feet and took the offer to stand down before getting obliterated.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The most interesting suggestion I have heard this far is that Prigozhin will succeed Lukashenko as leader of Belarus.

I believe one needs to be born in Belarus to become president

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The right is now no longer conservative, but militantly contrarian about everything. They're not "pro-Putin", so much as anti-establishment.

They've become antifa toward rational thought.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

You know that propaganda works both ways. I truly don't understand your views though, you seem to be almost cheering for a Russian victory in this conflict or at least admiring Vladimir Putin, and somehow posting a tweet that describes him as David rather than Goliath.

Us Gen X have been ahead of the curve since birth. Raised on cynicism and trust no one.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The most interesting suggestion I have heard this far is that Prigozhin will succeed Lukashenko as leader of Belarus.

Does Prigozhin have any ties to Belarus? Or is Putin just dropping the charade that Belarus is anything but a puppet state? Talk about Lukashenko making a deal with the devil.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

I believe one needs to be born in Belarus to become president

That's easy to change, a machine gun trumps rule of law every time

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

I believe one needs to be born in Belarus to become president

Comrade Putin found a top secret trove of documents indicating Prigohzin was born in Minsk! 100% legit.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1672841786019172352

https://twitter.com/user/status/1673052618656997377

So the past 48 hours have been extremely crazy with Prighozin seemingly backing down out of nowhere.

You have an army of 30K taking at least 2 major cities en route to Moscow with seemingly little resistance. This mercenary army was able to shoot down 8 (8!) planes / helicopters including a command post place and also took over SMD headquarters. Russia was breaking down bridges en route to Moscow to prevent this army from marching on Moscow with a plea from Putin himself that morning. And suddenly...

Prighozin stops and goes to Belarus.

And he walks away from a coup attempt - not just alive but cleared officially of all charges. Shoigu, Geramisov and Putin all disappeared from public view at a critical point. We have this seemingly pre-recorded video released today to claim he is doing fine after claims he disappeared. Things are not rosy in Russia land today.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...lots-crew.html

And you are tweeting David Sacks claiming we were all fooled while 8 aircraft were just shot down on Russian soil by a rogue mercenary squad and allowed to walk free.

[schteve_d]

Trying to make sense of all this. Is it possible the Russians took control of his family, or something else equally important to him, that would have made him back off so quickly?

What of the soldiers that "defected"; either didn't defend Russia or committed to joining the Wagner group?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

Trying to make sense of all this. Is it possible the Russians took control of his family, or something else equally important to him, that would have made him back off so quickly?

What of the soldiers that "defected"; either didn't defend Russia or committed to joining the Wagner group?

There's a number of really good sources on twitter and elsewhere to follow for better insight:

1) Michael Kofman - Russian Military expert born in Ukraine and grew up in US from the Centre for Naval Analyses is a widely regarded expert
2) Dmitri Alperovich - Born in Moscow and ended up in the US via a Canadian visa. He cofounded CrowdStrike and is a widely regarded security expert specifically in cyber warfare and Russian/Chinese geopolitical affairs. Now runs the Silverado Policy Accelerator
3) Rob Lee - Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute


All of these people were well versed in how Russia and the Russian Military works before the war. A couple of them mentioned that these types of issues are better view through a lens of gangland warfare ("Razborki" in Russian) vs strongman dictatorship.

What made him back off so quickly is that this was never a coup. It was a mutiny and all Progozhin wanted was to keep Wagner, and he still may. He could not have taken Moscow with 5000 men and a few tanks with no supply. This was a bluff all they way.

Here's a couple really good threads about what we know and what we don't that explains most of what happened:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1673048859025584128

https://twitter.com/user/status/1672999622032195584

And a really good rundown of the most likely scenario by a Russian political analyst (it's long, so I'll just quote and post the link to the tweet):

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status...538196482?s=20

Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:

1️⃣ Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.

2️⃣ Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).

3️⃣ Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.

4️⃣ Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.

5️⃣ I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.

I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.

And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.

[FlameOn]

Ukrainians claim that Russia is using chemical weapons against them, but that it blew back into Russian positions. We'll see if this is corroborated soon.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/25/7408466/

If true, this will trigger some kind of NATO response
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-n...ry?id=83648189

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

All of these people were well versed in how Russia and the Russian Military works before the war. A couple of them mentioned that these types of issues are better view through a lens of gangland warfare ("Razborki" in Russian) vs strongman dictatorship.

What made him back off so quickly is that this was never a coup. It was a mutiny and all Progozhin wanted was to keep Wagner, and he still may. He could not have taken Moscow with 5000 men and a few tanks with no supply. This was a bluff all they way.

Here's a couple really good threads about what we know and what we don't that explains most of what happened:

So I do believe it was a mutiny and not a coup with no intentions to overthrown the government, as I don't believe they had the means to take Moscow. That being said, to say it was a bluff severely dismisses what Prigozhin accomplished. Prigozhin may have been interested in self-preservation, but to directly challenge Russia like he did and leave unscathed is unheard of. There is more to this than meets the eye.

In the confusion, there's another aspect that is not mentioned, and one part of the actions which has been seemingly downplayed significantly by the media.

During the move towards Moscow and in Voronezh, there was a moment where Wagner inexplicably veered east, towards known nuclear weapons sites, most notably Voronezh-45. This was corroborated by Russian freedom forces and Visegrad. Within hours, Prighozin declares the raid is over and no more bloodshed.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1673029020919926785

https://twitter.com/user/status/1672991004230557698

This leads to the speculation that Wagner may have procured / stolen tactical nuclear warheads and used them as a bargaining chip / blackmail. To say that Prighozin hid his tail and ran yet allowed to go free with zero repercussions, I think what actually transpired is much darker.

Frankly if Shoigu / Gerasimov are gone after the smoke settles and all signs points to this being the case, Prighozin got what he wanted out of the deal. The question now is, how does this go from here.

[Firebot]

On the other side of the coin, there are new claims that Wagner officers' families were directly threatened by the FSB and that his forces were much smaller than claimed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...wagner-family/

None of this makes sense right now. All we know is this is lose lose lose for Russia

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

Comrade Putin found a top secret trove of documents indicating Prigohzin was born in Minsk! 100% legit.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Firebot

So I do believe it was a mutiny and not a coup with no intentions to overthrown the government, as I don't believe they had the means to take Moscow. That being said, to say it was a bluff severely dismisses what Prigozhin accomplished. Prigozhin may have been interested in self-preservation, but to directly challenge Russia like he did and leave unscathed is unheard of. There is more to this than meets the eye.

In the confusion, there's another aspect that is not mentioned, and one part of the actions which has been seemingly downplayed significantly by the media.

During the move towards Moscow and in Voronezh, there was a moment where Wagner inexplicably veered east, towards known nuclear weapons sites, most notably Voronezh-45. This was corroborated by Russian freedom forces and Visegrad. Within hours, Prighozin declares the raid is over and no more bloodshed.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1673029020919926785

https://twitter.com/user/status/1672991004230557698

This leads to the speculation that Wagner may have procured / stolen tactical nuclear warheads and used them as a bargaining chip / blackmail. To say that Prighozin hid his tail and ran yet allowed to go free with zero repercussions, I think what actually transpired is much darker.

Frankly if Shoigu / Gerasimov are gone after the smoke settles and all signs points to this being the case, Prighozin got what he wanted out of the deal. The question now is, how does this go from here.

This looks like we're reading some serious tea leaves here. Those Nukes were useless to Prigozhin as they're locked (PAL).

With regards to getting almost all the way to Moscow without being harmed that's not due to meticulous planning, that's due to Military bureaucracy not being flexible enough to respond to Russian units fighting Russian units and just an overall crappy command structure. They did get shot at by helicopters and planes, so it's not as though the MoD wasn't trying to stop them. Prigozhin got excited when he saw how they were being greeted in Rostov and decided to make it a thing hoping to force concessions. Then poop got real.

Seriously, Prighozin is not a mastermind here. There's no history here suggesting a clever leader with meticulous planning

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

This looks like we're reading some serious tea leaves here. Those Nukes were useless to Prigozhin as they're locked (PAL).

With regards to getting almost all the way to Moscow without being harmed that's not due to meticulous planning, that's due to Military bureaucracy not being flexible enough to respond to Russian units fighting Russian units and just an overall crappy command structure. They did get shot at by helicopters and planes, so it's not as though the MoD wasn't trying to stop them. Prigozhin got excited when he saw how they were being greeted in Rostov and decided to make it a thing hoping to force concessions. Then poop got real.

Seriously, Prighozin is not a mastermind here. There's no history here suggesting a clever leader with meticulous planning

Yet here he is, alive, leaving on his own volition while fist bumping and handshaking with sympathetic Russians. He left Rostov a hero and symbol.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1672711114918903808

Also Prighozin doesn't need to use the nukes to be dangerous, he can simply threaten to destroy them which would cause a significant blow to Putin's threats. Honestly the 'oh no my family' angle seems much more farfetched.

The next few days may show details of the deal.