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Old 08-19-2017, 10:58 AM   #261
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What AO and some other's don't realize is that 8 years sound like a long time, but in terms of hockey teams its not that long.

And as much as people think that McDavid can do it on his own he can't.

I would expect that as great as McDavid is, at some point during his 8 years with the team there will be a major rebuild in Edmonton.

They don't have good prospect depth at all. Their top end prospects aren't all that special, they don't have big stars coming from the farm system, and right now they don't have much that's going to be able to be that cheap talent that allows Edmonton to have nearly 21 million in two players.

Right now even if they manage to get some bargain contracts in the next two yeas with their free agents, and I mean guys like Nurse and Benning and Caggiula for example, if they can't move RNH for zero money return they'll end up about 5 million dollars over the cap.

The 6 million dollar players that they have to move aren't going to be moved in hockey trades, and nobody is going to take on the full contracts for RNH and Lucic. Its more then likely that they might have to move dollar assets that teams want like Larsson for example.

If they manage to get below the cap next year by basically gutting from strength, they then have some absolute killer contracts coming up. If JP has any kind of success next year he'll at least double his payday. If Talbot has even close to his success next year, he's going from 4 million bucks to 8.

Structurally this is a very badly built hockey team that pissed away high draft picks for years. They enjoyed a season where everything went entirely too right for them and they still got their teeth punched in against the Ducks.

No significant injuries
A goalie that played out of his mind and disguised a bad blueline with little offense
Career years all around
A easy schedule gifted by the NHL to save the Oilers that was heavy on teams coming into Edmonton's new building on the second of back to back games.

I just hope that the Oiler fans can take the crushing that could be coming down the pipe next year after walking around bragging about cups that they're going to win.

Time flies for badly constructed hockey teams and all of a sudden you're seeing tearful press conferences as your uber star jets off to Boston, or Pittsburgh or LA for a few draft picks and prospects.

I made a mistake people, I started feeling sympathy for Oiler fans after 10 years of ridiculously bad hockey. But all the arrogance and boasting coming out of their fan base makes me eagerly anticipate the crash followed by the announcement.

"The Oilers have fired Chia today and I'd like to introduce our new GM Kevin Lowe, also T-Mac has been canned, Craig MacTavish will step behind the bench as our new head coach"
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Old 08-19-2017, 11:34 AM   #262
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I would expect that as great as McDavid is, at some point during his 8 years with the team there will be a major rebuild in Edmonton.
It's not a question of IF there will be a rebuild, but how many.
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Old 08-19-2017, 11:56 AM   #263
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Draisaitl contract is the 4th highest second contract ever paid. Behind Crosby, Malkin and McDavid - who all won Hart trophy before signing their second contract.
Drai better be as good as they gambled on him being.
I'd be way more interested in where he ranks in terms of percentage of the total cap. It's still too much, but that would give a better indication of by how much he's being overpaid here.
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Old 08-19-2017, 12:07 PM   #264
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The biggest issue with this signing is the sheer amount of risk involved. Both players have not yet proven that they can produce at the rate they did last season without each other; and at $21 million between them, it's almost expected that they'll both have to drive their own lines separate from one another at some point.

I don't doubt McDavid can do it again with or without Draisaitl on his wing, but what happens when Draisaitl is forced to center his own line without McDavid doing the heavy lifting, can he produce 77 points again driving the second line? I've been told his advanced numbers aren't great without McDavid. Apparently GF60% and GF44% split with and without McDavid. Not sure the exact math on how that translates to his point totals, but it doesn't look good.

I think the risk vs reward could easily bite the Oilers in the ass in the future. They rewarded them for one good year and both players showed some res flags when playing away from each other. With the amount of money spent on the duo and along with guys like Lucic ($6m), I just don't see them having enough quality depth down the road to realistically compete the rest of the 40 mins when McDavid and Draisaitl aren't on the ice.
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Old 08-19-2017, 12:10 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
What AO and some other's don't realize is that 8 years sound like a long time, but in terms of hockey teams its not that long.

And as much as people think that McDavid can do it on his own he can't.

I would expect that as great as McDavid is, at some point during his 8 years with the team there will be a major rebuild in Edmonton.

They don't have good prospect depth at all. Their top end prospects aren't all that special, they don't have big stars coming from the farm system, and right now they don't have much that's going to be able to be that cheap talent that allows Edmonton to have nearly 21 million in two players.

Right now even if they manage to get some bargain contracts in the next two yeas with their free agents, and I mean guys like Nurse and Benning and Caggiula for example, if they can't move RNH for zero money return they'll end up about 5 million dollars over the cap.

The 6 million dollar players that they have to move aren't going to be moved in hockey trades, and nobody is going to take on the full contracts for RNH and Lucic. Its more then likely that they might have to move dollar assets that teams want like Larsson for example.

If they manage to get below the cap next year by basically gutting from strength, they then have some absolute killer contracts coming up. If JP has any kind of success next year he'll at least double his payday. If Talbot has even close to his success next year, he's going from 4 million bucks to 8.

Structurally this is a very badly built hockey team that pissed away high draft picks for years. They enjoyed a season where everything went entirely too right for them and they still got their teeth punched in against the Ducks.

No significant injuries
A goalie that played out of his mind and disguised a bad blueline with little offense
Career years all around
A easy schedule gifted by the NHL to save the Oilers that was heavy on teams coming into Edmonton's new building on the second of back to back games.

I just hope that the Oiler fans can take the crushing that could be coming down the pipe next year after walking around bragging about cups that they're going to win.

Time flies for badly constructed hockey teams and all of a sudden you're seeing tearful press conferences as your uber star jets off to Boston, or Pittsburgh or LA for a few draft picks and prospects.

I made a mistake people, I started feeling sympathy for Oiler fans after 10 years of ridiculously bad hockey. But all the arrogance and boasting coming out of their fan base makes me eagerly anticipate the crash followed by the announcement.

"The Oilers have fired Chia today and I'd like to introduce our new GM Kevin Lowe, also T-Mac has been canned, Craig MacTavish will step behind the bench as our new head coach"
CaptainCrunch, you nailed it!
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Old 08-19-2017, 12:54 PM   #266
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It's not a question of IF there will be a rebuild, but how many.
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Old 08-19-2017, 01:47 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814 View Post
Ovechkin, Kane, and Perry are wingers who make money like this.

This is what they get for doing McDavid's deal first. Once they gave McD 12.5, they handed Draisaitl at least an extra 1.5M.

Also, I'm starting to think ELCs are going to be a major battleground in the next CBA. The next agreement probably won't have 3-year deals - I'm thinking four at minimum. The owners will probably ask for five.
I've been thinking about this as well.

The membership of the PA is beginning to become more heavily polarized than it has in the past, its loading up at the top-end and the middle guys are really getting squeezed out.

I dont doubt the owners are going to want to extend ELCs to effectively cover the loss of the 'Middle Contract' but the players are undoubtedly going to push back with wanting the dollars on ELCs to go up. How much of a gap would we really be covering?
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Old 08-19-2017, 05:07 PM   #268
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Leave it to the Oilers to ruin second contracts, again.
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Old 08-19-2017, 05:10 PM   #269
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Leave it to the Oilers to ruin second contracts, again.
What is this, their third crack at it? Its almost pathological at this point.
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Old 08-19-2017, 05:35 PM   #270
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I've been thinking about this as well.

The membership of the PA is beginning to become more heavily polarized than it has in the past, its loading up at the top-end and the middle guys are really getting squeezed out.

I dont doubt the owners are going to want to extend ELCs to effectively cover the loss of the 'Middle Contract' but the players are undoubtedly going to push back with wanting the dollars on ELCs to go up. How much of a gap would we really be covering?
Here's to one day seeing a civil war in the PA.

I mean if I'm a middle income player getting squeezed on both sides, I'm looking towards this next lockout/strike with a lot of resentment.
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Old 08-20-2017, 01:54 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814 View Post
Ovechkin, Kane, and Perry are wingers who make money like this.

This is what they get for doing McDavid's deal first. Once they gave McD 12.5, they handed Draisaitl at least an extra 1.5M.

Also, I'm starting to think ELCs are going to be a major battleground in the next CBA. The next agreement probably won't have 3-year deals - I'm thinking four at minimum. The owners will probably ask for five.
Yeah it was amateur of chia to do mcdavids extension well ahead so that draisaitls camp could have a measuring stick for his demands to capitalize on one great season. Inversely, If they signed Leon first and got him to take say 7-7.5, maybe it would work to get mcdavids cap within the stratostphere of the rest of the team. Maybe not a huge difference cause of his leverage as a top player but it could've moved the needle.

The oilers seem to do a lot of not well thought out things. Chia fits in well.
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Old 08-20-2017, 10:24 AM   #272
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Next up will be Talbot, if he has another stellar season the Coilers won't be able to sign him under their cap constraints, if he doesn't play well they will need another top goalie that they won't be able to fit under their cap constraints. It doesn't get any better than this!

How long until McDavid gets tired of constantly losing in Edmonton and wants out? I say it's long before his contract is up!
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Old 08-20-2017, 10:33 AM   #273
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Every year, I hope they play a new pending RFA on McDavid's wing. Strome this year? 7M next summer. Puljujarvi the following season? 9M that summer.
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Old 08-20-2017, 11:51 AM   #274
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Leave it to the Oilers to ruin second contracts, again.
Yup this is terrible. Is Tkachuk on his way to being an $8M player in 2 years?

I really wish the Flames would have paid Johnny the extra $750k to get the extra 2 years.
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Old 08-21-2017, 08:55 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
What AO and some other's don't realize is that 8 years sound like a long time, but in terms of hockey teams its not that long.

And as much as people think that McDavid can do it on his own he can't.

I would expect that as great as McDavid is, at some point during his 8 years with the team there will be a major rebuild in Edmonton.
it's 9 years

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They don't have good prospect depth at all. Their top end prospects aren't all that special, they don't have big stars coming from the farm system, and right now they don't have much that's going to be able to be that cheap talent that allows Edmonton to have nearly 21 million in two players.
thats because our best talent is in the NHL

Oiler players under 25:

McDavid
Drai
Nuge
Strome
Caggulia
Slevyshev
Puljujarvi
Larsson
Klefbom
Nurse
Benning

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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
Right now even if they manage to get some bargain contracts in the next two yeas with their free agents, and I mean guys like Nurse and Benning and Caggiula for example, if they can't move RNH for zero money return they'll end up about 5 million dollars over the cap.

The 6 million dollar players that they have to move aren't going to be moved in hockey trades, and nobody is going to take on the full contracts for RNH and Lucic. Its more then likely that they might have to move dollar assets that teams want like Larsson for example.
maybe not Lucic but RNH will...centers are always worth a lot...especially 24 year old centers

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If they manage to get below the cap next year by basically gutting from strength, they then have some absolute killer contracts coming up. If JP has any kind of success next year he'll at least double his payday. If Talbot has even close to his success next year, he's going from 4 million bucks to 8.
that's a great problem to have because that means Puljujarvi had a great season meaning success

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Structurally this is a very badly built hockey team that pissed away high draft picks for years. They enjoyed a season where everything went entirely too right for them and they still got their teeth punched in against the Ducks.
like who? Yakupov? I count one "high" draft pick.
and we got our teeth punched in by the Ducks? we took them to 7 seven games and the Ducks needed the refs help to win the series...but I guess that shows you how far the Flames have to go

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No significant injuries
so you're saying if we sustained injuries to our best players, we'd be worse? no kidding, every team can say that
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A goalie that played out of his mind and disguised a bad blueline with little offense
far from "bad"...I'd say more like young and inexperienced...luckily the core (Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Benning) are all under 25 and getting better and better
phew, thank god Chia traded for a real #1 goalie

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Career years all around
other than Maroon, by whom? Eberle? RNH? Lucic? Letestu? Sekera? Larsson? Russell?
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A easy schedule gifted by the NHL to save the Oilers that was heavy on teams coming into Edmonton's new building on the second of back to back games.
got any clue what our schedule look like this year? I see a lot of home games in October and our first back-to-back in mid-November...

don't worry, we'll save the back-ups for you guys again

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I just hope that the Oiler fans can take the crushing that could be coming down the pipe next year after walking around bragging about cups that they're going to win.
no one is saying the Oilers are guaranteed cups...I do however see that Vegas has the Oilers with the 2nd best odds and most publications seeing the Oilers and Cup contenders
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Old 08-21-2017, 09:03 AM   #276
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no one is saying the Oilers are guaranteed cups...
...except just about every Oiler fan in Edmonton...they never learn.
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Old 08-21-2017, 09:39 AM   #277
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no one is saying the Oilers are guaranteed cups...I do however see that Vegas has the Oilers with the 2nd best odds and most publications seeing the Oilers and Cup contenders
More than a little bit arrogant to be planning the Stanley Cup Parade route in November like the the Oilers were last season, I guess you can use it for this year because if it doesn't happen this season it won't happen again unless the Oilers draft McDavids kid in 20 years!
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Old 08-21-2017, 09:44 AM   #278
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far from "bad"...I'd say more like young and inexperienced...luckily the core (Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Benning) are all under 25
That's pretty bad. I mean... Larsson & Klefbom are legit top 4 guys but Nurse and Benning aren't. If your core includes guys that aren't legit top 4 defenders the it's not far from bad it's right on top of bad.

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I do however see that Vegas has the Oilers with the 2nd best odds
That doesn't really mean anything other then that they've gotten a lot of bets in that direction. Vegas odds aren't the Houses' winner pick it's just a representation of betting patterns so the casino bookmaker can balance the ledger.
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Old 08-21-2017, 10:05 AM   #279
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it's 9 years


thats because our best talent is in the NHL

Oiler players under 25:

McDavid
Drai
Nuge
Strome
Caggulia
Slevyshev
Puljujarvi
Larsson
Klefbom
Nurse
Benning
Except outside McDavid, Drai, Klefbom and Larsson you haven't named anyone special.

Nuge? Weak Center who had his best year 4 years ago.

Strome? There's some potential there, but he has been steadily declining the last 3 years.

Caggulia? Run of the mill winger who had an 18 point rookie season. Wow!

Slepyshev? Split time between Edmonton and Bakersfield the last 2 years.

Puljujarvi? Huge question mark who had a terrible rookie season.

Nurse? Guy can hit and that's about it. Constant poor decision making and not a great skater.

Benning? Meh. Wouldn't be in the top 6 of any team outside Edmonton

Even Klefbom and Larsson wouldn't be top pairing guys other than in Edmonton.

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maybe not Lucic but RNH will...centers are always worth a lot...especially 24 year old centers
Not 24 year old Centers who haven't had a 60 point season in their career, had their best season as a sophomore, and have a weak frame who is easily pushed around.

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that's a great problem to have because that means Puljujarvi had a great season meaning success
And how will Chia afford a raise for him? No one's taking Lucic and he'll be extremely lucky if he can trade RNH for pennies on the dollar. Fayne is the only big money contract coming off next season and yet Maroon will need a new deal and Strome, Slepyshev, Caggulia, Benning and Nurse need to be qualified. I assume you want to keep those guys, since their your "best players under 25."

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like who? Yakupov? I count one "high" draft pick.
and we got our teeth punched in by the Ducks? we took them to 7 seven games and the Ducks needed the refs help to win the series...but I guess that shows you how far the Flames have to go
Gagner, Nilsson, Cogliano, Pajaarvi. Hell, Taylor Hall looks like he peaked years ago and Dubnyk was run out of town only to become a perennial Vezina candidate.

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far from "bad"...I'd say more like young and inexperienced...luckily the core (Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Benning) are all under 25 and getting better and better
phew, thank god Chia traded for a real #1 goalie
Larsson and Klefbom are both playing position higher than they should be because the Oilers D is awful. Nurse is a guy who can hit and nothing else. The Matt Benning's of the world can be found on any NHL team roster.

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other than Maroon, by whom? Eberle? RNH? Lucic? Letestu? Sekera? Larsson? Russell?
Funny you forgot to mention the most important guy who had a career year in Talbot. Also, the fact that no one else had a career year just goes to show how little depth you have. The quintessential one line team.


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no one is saying the Oilers are guaranteed cups...I do however see that Vegas has the Oilers with the 2nd best odds and most publications seeing the Oilers and Cup contenders
Because they're never wrong. Remember when you should've had multiple cups by now with Hall, RNH and Eberle leading the way. Not to mention no one is going to say anything bad about McPrincess's team.
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Old 08-21-2017, 10:05 AM   #280
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thats because our best talent is in the NHL

Oiler players under 25:

McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Strome, Caggulia, Slevyshev, Puljujarvi, Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Benning
See, here's the thing you don't understand. You need to maintain your pipeline when you have players with massive contracts, because you need those cost controlled contracts to balance out the massive contracts at the top end. You may have McDavid & Draisaitl signed for the next eight years, but during that time you're eating up almost 1/3 of your salary structure on two players. One is guaranteed to be a star, but the other could quickly become a boat anchor if he can't produce on his own.

The fact that you suggest that so much of your roster is under 25 is a good thing shows how much you are missing the above point. Here's your wakeup call.

Oilers are spending $61M on 13 players next season. They have about $13M to sign at least nine players, many of which are RFAs requiring raises to keep. Worse, in 2019-20, the Oilers have committed $55M to nine players. That leaves about $19M to sign 13-14 players!!! Of course that number is going to change dramatically as a result of the RFAs signed from next summer (seven total), but it looks like the Oilers will be even more cash strapped. It gets even uglier from there. But you can look at those numbers yourself.

To the amazing depth of players under 25 on the Oilers, here's another cold slap of a wet towel in the face.

Nuge (24) - Draisaitl's contract has all but killed Ryan Nothing-Happens in Edmonton. Worse, he's going to be given away for nothing. He is not a $6M player, and the Oilers can't afford to eat any salary on him, or take a bad contract back to add extra value. "The Nuge" will be sent packing this season at some point, and the return is going to be underwhelming. If you think Eberle brought back nothing, wait until "The Tenderness" is traded.

Strome (24) - this is going to be delicious to watch unfold. Strome was underwhelming in Long Island, and that is being polite. The Oilers need him to step up and fill the offensive gap left by Eberle, but they also need him to be mediocre at best, so they can get him signed to a reasonable extension next summer when he becomes a RFA. They are going to have to qualify him, so you can expect to see a raise on his $2.5M salary to something no worse than 10% north of that. If he actually puts up some decent numbers this year, that salary is going to go way up, which the Oilers can't afford. Even more delicious in this mess, Strome will have arbitration rights, so if he does have a big year, the Oilers are that much more ####ed.

Caggulia [sic] (23) - I've never seen so much hype over a 7 goal scorer. Interestingly enough, Caggiula is another one of those Oilers who is going to be a RFA next summer. Another player requiring a new, and more expensive contract.

Slevyshev (23) - Sleepy is yet another player needing a new contract next summer. The Oilers may catch a break here and be able to pay him league minimum, as that's the type of player he is. Or he may get wise and see he can make a lot more playing rec hockey back in the KHL and bolt for greener pastures. What is really sad, as bad as Sleepy is, the Oilers don't even have a replacement for him waiting in the minors to take his role.

Puljujarvi (19) - this is the biggest double edged sword in the Oilers armory. The Oilers desperately need him to develop into a secondary scorer, but they desperately need him to not develop until they get him signed to an extension. If he becomes a 20-25 goal scorer in the next two seasons, the Oilers are going to have to pay him bank, and they don't have the cash to do it.

Larsson (24) and Klefbom (24) - this is the only thing the Oilers have going for them right now. Larsson and Klefbom are signed to good contracts. They help control the costs on the blueline and will be their work horses. The problem is neither are top pair defenders. They are a solid second pair, but pressed into that first pair responsibility, they are going to wilt under the pressure. They will take the Oilers as far as Talbot can carry the remainder of the blueline.

Nurse (22) - another soon to be RFA that is going to inflate the salary. There's the rub of building these buys up to be something special, when they really aren't, you have to pay them when their salaries come due. The Oilers may catch a break here, because he's been so mediocre that they may be able to sign him to a low bridge contract. Anything over $1.5M and you're overpaying for what he's brought so far.

Benning (23) - the Drake Caggiula of the Oilers backend. Over-hyped for what he brought to the table. Reminds me a bit of Jokipakka for the Flames. Played well in sheltered minutes, but couldn't handle the heat of a larger role. Yet another RFA to be dealt with next summer. Benning is a player you should have four or five of in the minors to step in and play a similar role, but the Oilers currently have none. You have Keegan Lowe as your most likely available defender. Ouch.

You also forgot Broissoit (24). You need a goaltender to step in and provide some support for Talbot. Eight games ain't going to cut it. To get that, you're going to have to pay for that. You can count on a lot more than the $750K you're spending now. But that is part of the problem. The Oilers are banking on playing a 10 man roster and riding it as far as they can go.

When teams talk about windows those widows are based on the budget and quality players they have some control over. For the Oilers, that window is this season. Let that sink in. The Oilers window is this upcoming season. Why? Because they overpaid their youth, overpaid a couple free agents, and haven't built up a system to support that core. The numbers don't lie, and the salary cap is now your greatest enemy. Even with the increbile gifts given to the Oilers, they are going no where because Chia Pet is just a horrible manager.
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