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Old 03-20-2017, 10:02 PM   #1461
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Ageism? Oh brother, triggered! The average age doesn't change, but do you think a 20 year old today thinks the same as a 20 year old 40 years ago? I doubt it very much. They were raised in different eras, different formation of values, aware of different things. This isn't a comment on better or worse, but trends change because society changes and people change. The same factors that kept the PCs in for 40+ years might not exist anymore. It's not as simple as going back to the status quo.

The NDP didn't just win because the PC party needed a wake-up call, it won because the WR platform sucked to a lot of people. A portion of voters who voted PC last time did so because they didn't want to vote WR, the logical alternative if they wanted to ensure a conservative victory. If you're comfortable banking on all of those people saying "WR are joining the PCs? Come on in! My vote is the same even though I purposely didn't vote for them last time!" then, again, I think you're going to be sad in June 2019.

You can talk about the long term trend of voting Conservative all you want. Voting Social Credit was a long term trend to, until people decided to vote for the further-left PC party. But I'm sure Socreds dismissed the progressive trend right in front of their eyes as crazy people camped out at UofA too. I'm sure it made it hurt less.



And about 15% higher than it was 4 months before the last election, which they won. We're 26 months away from the next one. Not exactly "close enough to call" yet is it?
Well the Wildrose also had it's leader and a pile of other defections leading up to that election. Don't let that interfere with your story though.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:06 PM   #1462
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Well the Wildrose also had it's leader and a pile of other defections leading up to that election. Don't let that interfere with your story though.
Which was caused by a right wing party's refusal to shift towards the centre socially so it fits right in with Pepsis narrative.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:08 PM   #1463
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Originally Posted by PepsiFree View Post
Ageism? Oh brother, triggered! The average age doesn't change, but do you think a 20 year old today thinks the same as a 20 year old 40 years ago? I doubt it very much. They were raised in different eras, different formation of values, aware of different things. This isn't a comment on better or worse, but trends change because society changes and people change. The same factors that kept the PCs in for 40+ years might not exist anymore. It's not as simple as going back to the status quo.

The NDP didn't just win because the PC party needed a wake-up call
, it won because the WR platform sucked to a lot of people. A portion of voters who voted PC last time did so because they didn't want to vote WR, the logical alternative if they wanted to ensure a conservative victory. If you're comfortable banking on all of those people saying "WR are joining the PCs? Come on in! My vote is the same even though I purposely didn't vote for them last time!" then, again, I think you're going to be sad in June 2019.

You can talk about the long term trend of voting Conservative all you want. Voting Social Credit was a long term trend to, until people decided to vote for the further-left PC party. But I'm sure Socreds dismissed the progressive trend right in front of their eyes as crazy people camped out at UofA too. I'm sure it made it hurt less.



And about 15% higher than it was 4 months before the last election, which they won. We're 26 months away from the next one. Not exactly "close enough to call" yet is it?
Yes they did...and moreso because of the floor crossings that soured every single conservative of any stripe.

To think otherwise is beyond naive.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:08 PM   #1464
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Well the Wildrose also had it's leader and a pile of other defections leading up to that election. Don't let that interfere with your story though.
Absolutely, it doesn't interfere, it adds to it.

There is a growing progressive movement in Alberta that punched above it's weight when they got the NDP in. It's not likely to repeat, but we're two years away. A lot can go wrong for the PC or WR brand, and a lot can go right for the NDP brand, or we could see the rise of a smaller left-leaning party make a few waves.

I think the one and only mistake is to think a PC/WR victory is a lock. That seems like a bad idea. That's the type of bad idea that keeps people at home instead of at the polls.

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Yes they did...and moreso because of the floor crossings that soured every single conservative of any stripe.

To think otherwise is beyond naive.
Sorry, I think you're the naive one if you're willingly ignoring the perfect storm that happened leading up to that election. As I explained, a lot of factors went into it. Nobody is denying the protest vote is a major part.

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Old 03-20-2017, 10:08 PM   #1465
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Ageism? Oh brother, triggered! The average age doesn't change, but do you think a 20 year old today thinks the same as a 20 year old 40 years ago? I doubt it very much. They were raised in different eras, different formation of values, aware of different things.
I edited my post before you replied. There are long term voting trends including recent elections that back up my argument however.

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The NDP didn't just win because the PC party needed a wake-up call, it won because the WR platform sucked to a lot of people. A portion of voters who voted PC last time did so because they didn't want to vote WR, the logical alternative if they wanted to ensure a conservative victory.
The NDP won because the PC's needed a shake up badly. The press conference with the smiling floor crossers and Smith leaving the WR compouned things. It was a perfect store, the NDP won with a protest vote plain and simple.

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If you're comfortable banking on all of those people saying "WR are joining the PCs? Come on in! My vote is the same even though I purposely didn't vote for them last time!" then, again, I think you're going to be sad in June 2019.
Happy to put money on it if you feel confident. Or we can do a charity donation bet, CP donation bet, avatar bet or whatever else you like.

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And about 15% higher than it was 4 months before the last election, which they won.
Well ya, that's because it was a fluke protest vote that came together at the last minute. They have had crappy approval ratings ever since.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:19 PM   #1466
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The NDP won because the PC's needed a shake up badly. The press conference with the smiling floor crossers and Smith leaving the WR compouned things. It was a perfect store, the NDP won with a protest vote plain and simple.
That's why the PC party lost, but you're not answering the question as to why the NDP party won while nobody else did. That's what you should be considering. Everyone knows why the PC party lost, but that's not the same reason the NDP party won over everyone else.

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Happy to put money on it if you feel confident. Or we can do a charity donation bet, CP donation bet, avatar bet or whatever else you like.
Don't get me wrong, I think there is a big chance the NDP will lose, I just think it's a mistake to believe it's a foregone conclusion that you don't need to worry about.

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Well ya, that's because it was a fluke protest vote that came together at the last minute. They have had crappy approval ratings ever since.
Yet, better rating than the PC party achieved for most of the last five years including today, the party that you're sure is a a lock 2 years out from the vote? Sorry, I don't see it being that simple.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:27 PM   #1467
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That's why the PC party lost, but you're not answering the question as to why the NDP party won while nobody else did. That's what you should be considering. Everyone knows why the PC party lost, but that's not the same reason the NDP party won over everyone else.
Disgust with the PC's, the WR defections. Like I said, a perfect storm, a fluke. I know, I was one of those voters, I went to the WR because the NDP were a non starter for me. Others went to the NDP as the only other viable party, lots of them regret it.

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Don't get me wrong, I think there is a big chance the NDP will lose, I just think it's a mistake to believe it's a foregone conclusion that you don't need to worry about.
What if I give you 2 to 1 odds?

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Yet, better rating than the PC party achieved for most of the last five years including today, the party that you're sure is a a lock 2 years out from the vote? Sorry, I don't see it being that simple.
I think you may be confusing approval ratings with poll numbers, they aren't the same thing.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:30 PM   #1468
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I think there are a few things that need to be done in order for a United party to win over the centre.

1) Put forward a token motion for the membership to approve that transgendered and homosexuals should be protected under the law. The lack of the WRs ability to pass this resolution has led directly to the current situation. The centre of Alberta and even the fiscal right will not tolerate the whiff of bigotry anymore.

2) Present a credible vision that is more than find efficiencies. There 2 billion in savings budget proposal is effectively get rid of the carbon tax and carbon tax spending (which doesn't fix the revenue problem) and to find 1 billion in efficicies. They need to have a credible plan to a balanced budget

3) Acknowledge that global warming exists and that there needs to be lip service paid to it for us to be credible internationally. This could just be leaving the Carbon tax as is and making it truly revenue neutral and cut the green spending and leaving the oil sands CO2 cap in place until it becomes inconvenient.

If they deliver a credible message on the 3 above items while still being fiscally conservative (wage freeze, gut management, cut business tax) They will easily get elected. However there is a very real risk that they go populist and use the Left as the out group to rally people against and try to scare the suburbs into voting for them while consolidating rural support.
Do you really think points 1 and 3 matter to the average voter? It's the economy, stupid - it has always been so, and it will be so again. I agree with you on those points, but they don't matter to me, as compared to things like taxation and spending... Those are "elite" issues, not "average voter" issues. Two groups of people tend to think these things are important - those whose lives are so fantastic that they have nothing else to be concerned about or the young/naive, who still see the world as black and white. Neither of those groups is actually that numerous to make much of a difference...
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:33 PM   #1469
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I think you may be confusing approval ratings with poll numbers, they aren't the same thing.
Yeah that's on me, I've been referring to poll numbers, not ratings.

Point remains unchanged by it.
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:45 PM   #1470
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The one thing I will always remember from the 1996 election in BC is that no matter how unpopular a party seems...they are a new leader away from pulling off a surprise win. Its about rekindling the emotions that got people to support them the last time.

A conservative party who thinks that existing during an election campaign will be a sure win could very well end up wondering why they didn't win.
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:22 PM   #1471
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Do you really think points 1 and 3 matter to the average voter? It's the economy, stupid - it has always been so, and it will be so again. I agree with you on those points, but they don't matter to me, as compared to things like taxation and spending... Those are "elite" issues, not "average voter" issues. Two groups of people tend to think these things are important - those whose lives are so fantastic that they have nothing else to be concerned about or the young/naive, who still see the world as black and white. Neither of those groups is actually that numerous to make much of a difference...
I don't know about that. There are plenty of non-young people with imperfect lives who don't want to be governed by a party that doesn't respect basic human rights.

There are even more people who don't want to be governed by climate change deniers.
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:54 PM   #1472
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Membership in the centrist parties have spiked this month, great news!
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:11 AM   #1473
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The NDP won because the PC's needed a shake up badly. The press conference with the smiling floor crossers and Smith leaving the WR compouned things. It was a perfect store, the NDP won with a protest vote plain and simple.
The crossings don't explain why, when it came to protest against the PCs, far more Albertans moved their vote to the NDP than to the WR. Social conservatism and self-proclaimed 'rural values' are non-starters to most urban voters.

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The one thing I will always remember from the 1996 election in BC is that no matter how unpopular a party seems...they are a new leader away from pulling off a surprise win. Its about rekindling the emotions that got people to support them the last time.

A conservative party who thinks that existing during an election campaign will be a sure win could very well end up wondering why they didn't win.
It's easy to forget how popular Notley was at the time of the election. No doubt some of the bloom is off the rose. But she still has a very positive image and is a good campaigner. This isn't Hilary Clinton.
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Old 03-21-2017, 05:52 AM   #1474
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Membership in the centrist parties have spiked this month, great news!
LOL. Spiked from what to what? Political membership in any party isn't spiking these days. I noticed that after the Kenney victory that candidates like Starke who were assuredly going to the Alberta Party have decided to see how things go. Donna Kennedy Glans is on the transition team, and basically all of the higher profile people are staying with the party. They want to win, and this new entity is going to give them the best shot at that. Centrist parties and their supporters ought not to be surprised.
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Old 03-21-2017, 06:51 AM   #1475
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It's easy to forget how popular Notley was at the time of the election. No doubt some of the bloom is off the rose. But she still has a very positive image and is a good campaigner. This isn't Hilary Clinton.
She's also been protecting her personal image by letting her underlings take the heat for everything uncomfortable. Minister of Pop-tarts, Sarah Hoffman is often the sacrificial lamb. This is also probably Mason's last term, so they often let him wear the dunce cap. One thing Notley could be fairly criticized for is her being absent a lot for question period, she really has taken a low presence when the heat is on the Government. The opposition would be wise to start questioning her lack of standing.
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:29 AM   #1476
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Do you really think points 1 and 3 matter to the average voter? It's the economy, stupid - it has always been so, and it will be so again. I agree with you on those points, but they don't matter to me, as compared to things like taxation and spending... Those are "elite" issues, not "average voter" issues. Two groups of people tend to think these things are important - those whose lives are so fantastic that they have nothing else to be concerned about or the young/naive, who still see the world as black and white. Neither of those groups is actually that numerous to make much of a difference...
If you consider that this election will be decided by the suburbs in Edmonton and all of Calgary I think it will matter. I don't think you can win central Calgary without a climate change policy or tolerance. I think suburban Calgary without tolerance is a fight.

One needs to ask themselves why didn't the anti-PC vote coalesce around the wild rose? I think it's the above three things. I really believe that if the Wild rose passed the tolerance resolution Smith doesn't defect and they form power. Albertas "Redneck" reputation causes over compensation from the city folk. 80% are in favour of Gay Marriage. If your party can't pass a resolution that represents 80% of the populace you are not going to form government. The lake of fire baggage still haunts them and will cost them suburban votes.

The climate change one I think you can get away with by not actively denying it And just saying we need to follow US policy.
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:33 AM   #1477
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Do all of you fear mongering about how far right Kenney will take the party socially (lake of fire comments regurgitated etc.) realize he's an unmarried gay man? Maybe not such a boogeyman after all?
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:48 AM   #1478
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This kind of stuff is why the PC's were booted out. I see they haven't stopped with this nonsense. Why can't they act like respectful human beings?
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The former WROC president, Galandy, said Bexte petitioned her last summer to endorse a unite-the-right stance within the Wildrose on Campus.
But she rejected the overtures in favour of supporting Jean and the Wildrose Party.
When she returned to school in the fall after a Parliament Hill internship, she faced an impeachment motion.


"Galandy has proven herself utterly incapable of executing the expectations of the office she holds and has been remiss in her duties. Galandy does not represent the values that Wildrose youth hold," read the motion.

...
Anika Burmeister — who was a former communications director of WROC until September 2016, as well as of the U of C's Campus Conservatives club — also says Kenney supporters took over the club and used a campaign of harassment against Galandy.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...andy-1.4026339

Even if Kenny and his people had absolutely nothing to do with it(doubtful) this kind of behaviour seems attracted to them. Why is that?
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Old 03-21-2017, 08:02 AM   #1479
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Do all of you fear mongering about how far right Kenney will take the party socially (lake of fire comments regurgitated etc.) realize he's an unmarried gay man? Maybe not such a boogeyman after all?
That's one way to look at it. It's wrong, though.

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Kenney has been an unabashed social conservative in his political career, fighting against abortion and receiving endorsement from the Campaign Life Coalition,[100] and voted against same-sex marriage as a MP, saying "A majority of Canadians support the provision of benefits on grounds such as domestic partnership relationships, which are grounded on unions of economic dependency rather than relationships of a mere conjugal nature, and yet still two-thirds of Canadians, from every culture that exists in this country, from every corner of the globe who have come to this country to build a future for themselves and their families, recognize that marriage is, as the Supreme Court said the last time it spoke to this issue in the Egan case in 1995, “by nature a heterosexual institution”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Kenney
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Old 03-21-2017, 08:21 AM   #1480
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LOL. Spiked from what to what? Political membership in any party isn't spiking these days. I noticed that after the Kenney victory that candidates like Starke who were assuredly going to the Alberta Party have decided to see how things go. Donna Kennedy Glans is on the transition team, and basically all of the higher profile people are staying with the party. They want to win, and this new entity is going to give them the best shot at that. Centrist parties and their supporters ought not to be surprised.
Membership has spiked because of the NDP budget, especially for those who don't like spending their way into abysmal levels of debt and deficit. We expect membership to spike again after the merger is completed, or at least until they define what the new conservative movement is. The center is also for the people who are socially progressive, which by all indications is not going to be the case for a new merger on the right.
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