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View Poll Results: Best guess at Sam Bennett's contract
2 years $6M ($3/) 34 5.91%
2 years $5.5M 58 10.09%
2 years $5M 102 17.74%
2 years $4.5M 113 19.65%
2 years $4M 45 7.83%
3 years $9M 49 8.52%
3 years $8.25M 47 8.17%
3 years $7.5M 51 8.87%
3 years $6.75M 28 4.87%
3 years $6M 10 1.74%
1 year deal 5 0.87%
Long Term deal 33 5.74%
Voters: 575. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-12-2017, 12:18 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by Machiavelli View Post
I'd rather a bridge deal for Bennett. Have no problem with the Flames having to pony up if the next couple of seasons are particularly productive for him.


I imagine a sticking point from the Flames side of things is that the deal needs to be 3 years or longer - otherwise they're penciling themselves into some serious cap problems. If Backlund (1 year remaining), Tkachuk (2 years remaining), and Bennett (less than 3 years) all need to be renewed while we still have Frolik and Brouwer on the books (3 years remaining), then it will be pretty difficult to avoid a cap-crunch.

Does the team believe in Bennett? I think they do, and I definitely do. I think this is a good opportunity to get a "win" on a longer term deal (4-5 years) while maintaining a very friendly cap-hit.
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Old 08-12-2017, 12:24 PM   #262
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Bennett is the new Boyd.
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Old 08-12-2017, 02:16 PM   #263
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Bennett is the new Boyd.
Why do you say this? What are the reasons behind this?
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Old 08-12-2017, 02:24 PM   #264
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If Bennett's camp was offered a choice of four options:

i) 2 yrs x $2MM
ii) 3 yrs x $3MM
iii) 4 yrs x $4MM
iv) 5 yrs x $5MM

I wonder what option the Bennett camp would opt for? For the Flames management I would imagine their preference would be the reverse order of these options ie they would prefer a 5x5 deal.

Will be interesting to see how this negotiation shakes out.
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Old 08-12-2017, 03:13 PM   #265
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Why do you say this? What are the reasons behind this?
Because we're wondering if he's signed yet.
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Old 08-12-2017, 05:48 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by Gaudfather View Post
If Bennett's camp was offered a choice of four options:

i) 2 yrs x $2MM
ii) 3 yrs x $3MM
iii) 4 yrs x $4MM
iv) 5 yrs x $5MM

I wonder what option the Bennett camp would opt for? For the Flames management I would imagine their preference would be the reverse order of these options ie they would prefer a 5x5 deal.

Will be interesting to see how this negotiation shakes out.
They would take the $25 million deal. Compared to option 4, Bennett would be making $9 million in year 5. I get your point, but the increments are too large IMO for the Flames to consider this.

I'm surprised he's not signed yet unless Treliving is really trying go long term at relatively low dollars.
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Old 08-12-2017, 06:04 PM   #267
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They would take the $25 million deal. Compared to option 4, Bennett would be making $9 million in year 5. I get your point, but the increments are too large IMO for the Flames to consider this.

I'm surprised he's not signed yet unless Treliving is really trying go long term at relatively low dollars.
You may be misinterpreting what I was proposing - under my option 4 Bennett signs for 5 years at $5MM per year, so would still make $5MM in Year 5.
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Old 08-12-2017, 07:10 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by Gaudfather View Post
You may be misinterpreting what I was proposing - under my option 4 Bennett signs for 5 years at $5MM per year, so would still make $5MM in Year 5.
I believe the point being made was that if, based on your payment scheme, the first 2years are worth 2 mil each, year 3 is worth 3 mil year 4 is worth 4 mil, but he's getting front loaded 5mil AAV for 5 years, that essentially puts his 5th year value at 14 mil (25-2-2-3-4=14). Or if you were to say take option 3, 4x4 years=16 mill, the difference between that and option 4, 5x5=25 mil makes that last year worth 9 million.

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Old 08-12-2017, 07:28 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by FlamesFanTrev View Post
I believe the point being made was that if, based on your payment scheme, the first 2years are worth 2 mil each, year 3 is worth 3 mil year 4 is worth 4 mil, but he's getting front loaded 5mil AAV for 5 years, that essentially puts his 5th year value at 14 mil (25-2-2-3-4=14). Or if you were to say take option 3, 4x4 years=16 mill, the difference between that and option 4, 5x5=25 mil makes that last year worth 9 million.
Exactly. Each year being added in that scenario is a very expensive year. Otherwise you're asking whether Bennett would prefer $5 million a year vs $2 million a year, which is rather obvious.
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Old 08-12-2017, 07:46 PM   #270
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You're dreaming if you think $2.5M is enough on a 4 year deal. A 2 year deal is probably going to be in the $2.25 - $2.5M range.

So 4 x $3.5M means something like $4.5M for the 3rd and 4th years. And those would be peak pre-UFA years.

That would be a great deal for the Flames.
I think you are right, that Bennett would be foolish to sign a 2.5Mx4 contract when he has so much untapped potential.

By the same measure, Treliving would be taking a big risk to pay for potential and sign a 3.5Mx4 contract. Bennett has been undisciplined, and hasn't been able to show he's more than a support player the calibre of Versteeg or Ferland.

He's so young - Brad could be convinced he's going to blossom into a superstar, but he hasn't had that straight upwards trajectory that Monahan and Gaudreau experienced.

Bennett is such a tough nut to crack for me. Is he Getzlaf in training or is he Zach Kassian?

I think It's a short term deal. 1x1.75-9 2x1.9-2.1. I just can't see him having any leverage to ask for more.
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Old 08-12-2017, 11:54 PM   #271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudfather View Post
If Bennett's camp was offered a choice of four options:

i) 2 yrs x $2MM
ii) 3 yrs x $3MM
iii) 4 yrs x $4MM
iv) 5 yrs x $5MM

I wonder what option the Bennett camp would opt for? For the Flames management I would imagine their preference would be the reverse order of these options ie they would prefer a 5x5 deal.

Will be interesting to see how this negotiation shakes out.
That's a no brainer at 5x5.

If the offers were
2x2.5
3x3
4x3.5
5x4


Now instead of having to make 9 million in the 5th year to make the 4 year worth it, it would be 6M.
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Old 08-13-2017, 12:31 AM   #272
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I ran some numbers a little while back

Bennett right now is a 30 point #3C. That's worth about 2 million as an RFA with no arb rights. If he had arb rights that would probably be worth 3 milllion.

So I'll say he's worth 5 million on a two year deal.

I'd say we expect (and his camp expects) that Bennett will be a Johansen tier #1C. He just signed a deal that pays him 8 million for each UFA year. So years 6,7, and 8 of a contract would be worth 8 mil if he signed a long term deal today.

Years 3,4, and 5 are the tricky ones. He would be RFA for all those years and he would probably be a #2C. So he'd be worth less than Monahan/Mackinnon/Barkov. From this I'd put his value for those season at around 5 mil.

So a cost per season as follows

2mil
3mil
5mil
5mil
5mil
8mil
8mil
8mil

These assumptions are pretty favorable to Bennett's camp imo. He hasn't proven much in his NHL time so far. Expectations are mostly based on pedigree at this point.

That pay structure would translate to a

1x2
2x2.5
3x3.33
4x3.75
5x4
6x4.66
7x5.15
8x5.5

The best deal there for the Flames would be the 4x3.75. Gets you term and low hit while also not locking you in forever if progression stops. It would also keep Bennett as a RFA at the end of the deal.

For me, these would be fair value contracts for each length. If the final deal comes in less than these, I think Tre will have made a smart signing.
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Old 08-13-2017, 08:41 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by Sylvanfan View Post
Bennett is the new Boyd.
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Old 08-14-2017, 08:54 AM   #274
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its the middle of August - get this DONE!!! - no training camp distractions this year please
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Old 08-15-2017, 08:41 AM   #275
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thehockeywriters.com/calgary-flames-sam-bennett-elite/
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Old 08-15-2017, 09:02 AM   #276
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Can someone tell me if that link is interesting enough to copy and paste? Heh
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Old 08-15-2017, 09:03 AM   #277
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Has Bennett signed yet?
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Old 08-15-2017, 09:23 AM   #278
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Has Bennett signed yet?
Nope
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Old 08-15-2017, 09:38 AM   #279
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The Bennett Draisaitl thing again ... I know I wrote on this earlier in the season, but here's an update with a different graphic.

Feel free to challenge my categories for each player for both teams, but it certainly points to an issue in both players contract negotiations.



The Oilers have a superstar, Calgary doesn't. Draisaitl spent his second highest load of minutes last season with said superstar.

Bennett has a secondary player and then three straight depth players on his hit list.

Draisaitl doesn't get saddled with a depth player until his 7th most frequent linemate.

Even the dmen are skewed with Draisaitl getting the Oilers top pairing as his most frequent linemates while Bennett gets Engelland.

Lastly the cumulative look at the bottom shows 1656 minutes for Bennett with the combination of superstar, core and secondary player, less than 50% of his total. Draisaitl has over 75% of his time away from scrubs.

Can't dispute Draisaitl's production, and ice time can't equal all differences but there could be a lot more highway on this comparison down the road.

The key is how do they fix this for 2017-18 in Calgary without breaking up the top two lines?
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Old 08-15-2017, 09:48 AM   #280
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Based on the premise of your data, it is clear that if the flames want Bennett to grow and flourish offensively, they will have to either put Bennett on the wing or break up Monahan/gaudreau or Tkachuk/Backlund/Frolik.

Personally, I'd like to see tkatchuk/Bennett paired up with strong offensive opportunities (pp and offensive zone starts), even if that means sacrificing frolik/Backlund to see more defensive time (something they excel in anyways).
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