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Old 05-24-2017, 07:21 PM   #481
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Bit of this bit of that? Even a calculated risk can net you a loss.
Seems to depend who you ask.

The investor who takes a risk and wins tells you it was calculated.
The person who didn't take the risk, watching the person who did have success, tells you they were lucky.
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Old 05-24-2017, 07:24 PM   #482
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Some will see avocado toast as a metaphor for millennial self-indulgence. But the fascination with this storyline says a lot more about society’s trivial understanding of millennials than it does about these young adults themselves.

Avocado toast is not the problem in today’s housing market. The average Toronto-area house price jumped $181,709 over the 12 months to April 30. That’s 12,114 orders of avocado toast at $15 a crack, or 33.2 orders a day over a year. This brings us back to parental financial help for millennial home buyers. The need is obviously there, but so is the danger of getting millennials into a situation they can’t handle in a financial sense.

As the Manulife survey notes, the increase in parental support for millennials compared with previous generations comes despite a long-term trend toward two-income families. Over the past 40 years, the number of families with two employed parents has doubled. Families often need two incomes to afford a house today.

There’s also a high incidence of precarious work in the millennial generation, which means a lot of people are working contract or temporary jobs. This leads to inconsistent or variable incomes, a problem documented in a recently issued survey that was sponsored by Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Almost 40 per cent of participants said they have experienced moderate to high levels of income volatility in the past year, and two in 10 put themselves in the high or very high category. TD’s summary of the results said people who experienced high or very high levels of income variability are more likely to see themselves as falling behind financially and more likely to report feeling stress about money.

Manulife’s survey reinforces the idea of millennial homeowners being financially vulnerable. Almost one-third of millennials found themselves without enough money in their bank account to cover expenses at least once over the past 12 months, compared with 28 per cent of Gen Xers and 17 per cent of boomers. Millennials were also more likely to say they’d run into trouble making a mortgage payment if the prime earner in their household became unemployed.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ticle35089740/
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Old 05-24-2017, 07:33 PM   #483
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Seems to depend who you ask.

The investor who takes a risk and wins tells you it was calculated.
The person who didn't take the risk, watching the person who did have success, tells you they were lucky.
And the person who took the risk and lost doesn't say anything because of shame and embarrassment for such a risky decision.
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:05 AM   #484
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Anecdotally speaking (granted my sample is hundreds of local people) rent has been dropping regularly.

And I think renting is going to be an interesting situation in the future because I'm thinking a lot of people are coming to realize that retiring in Canada in a lost cause.

So instead of buying the house in the hopes of selling it for more than it cost in 30 years or so and leaving, why not pocket the difference in the meantime, pay the rent and then leave whenever you want?

Its an interesting scenario.
An analogy I heard once was, "put a 1000 people in a room flipping coins and there will be a winner. Is that person an expert in flipping coins?"
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:23 AM   #485
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I get what you're saying and don't entirely disagree. The problem is that running a mandate like that will make zero dollars at 0.5% and end up costing money. The only way you could make that profitable at this point is to have enough volume to make it that high (which would be hundreds of millions of dollars).

I should add that there are fund of fund mandates just like you describe available for a little more than 0.5% right now. They don't have the housing angle and such that you're throwing in there, but if you just want the ETF investment you can buy that for sure.
The ETF that tracks the index only charges 0.15% or less.

You don't build the whole thing at once, you build the direct debit piece first and it's a complete pass through. Set up the legal/tax reporting and run it like an app that you download yourself and it makes contributions to the selected 4x ETFs based on the user profile you select. A minimal and transparent volume fee to cover expenses, no trail fees, no lock ins, no incentives to pick certain funds, just a mandate to put people in a passive strategy that over the last 9yrs has returned 80%+.


There are obviously challenges, but it can be done and there are some smart folks with the right backgrounds on this board.
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Old 05-25-2017, 06:43 AM   #486
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The ETF that tracks the index only charges 0.15% or less.

You don't build the whole thing at once, you build the direct debit piece first and it's a complete pass through. Set up the legal/tax reporting and run it like an app that you download yourself and it makes contributions to the selected 4x ETFs based on the user profile you select. A minimal and transparent volume fee to cover expenses, no trail fees, no lock ins, no incentives to pick certain funds, just a mandate to put people in a passive strategy that over the last 9yrs has returned 80%+.


There are obviously challenges, but it can be done and there are some smart folks with the right backgrounds on this board.
Well I am an advisor and use those same companies to build portfolios so I know, when you just look at that you would think that someone could build something and it would be super cheap. And you can...just with no service. That is what the robo-advisors are doing. But as soon as you add customizing and tailoring to the mix then things add up.

I do run things cheaply and I fully disclose all the fees, but the truth is that you can't work for free and no one is going to. So the idea of paying only for the investment and super small amounts over is difficult because someone has to pay the regulators, compliance has costs and of course just running this platform costs money.

And as far as the passive, that's great. I do that for people. But it's not purely set it and forget it. You have to be monitoring and rebalancing and there are other considerations, methods to the rebalancing and plenty of work involved. I think that the idea of "I will just buy the S&P 500" sounds great, but even when you mix-in 2-3 indexes you start making decisions and have tax ramifications, currencies and risk that should all be factored in.

tl;dr: I would be more than happy to work on something like this, but people would need to go in with their eyes wide open.
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Old 05-25-2017, 07:02 AM   #487
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The average Toronto-area house price jumped $181,709 over the 12 months to April 30.
That sounds like a bubble to me....
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Old 05-25-2017, 08:06 AM   #488
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Well I am an advisor and use those same companies to build portfolios so I know, when you just look at that you would think that someone could build something and it would be super cheap. And you can...just with no service. That is what the robo-advisors are doing. But as soon as you add customizing and tailoring to the mix then things add up.

I do run things cheaply and I fully disclose all the fees, but the truth is that you can't work for free and no one is going to. So the idea of paying only for the investment and super small amounts over is difficult because someone has to pay the regulators, compliance has costs and of course just running this platform costs money.

And as far as the passive, that's great. I do that for people. But it's not purely set it and forget it. You have to be monitoring and rebalancing and there are other considerations, methods to the rebalancing and plenty of work involved. I think that the idea of "I will just buy the S&P 500" sounds great, but even when you mix-in 2-3 indexes you start making decisions and have tax ramifications, currencies and risk that should all be factored in.

tl;dr: I would be more than happy to work on something like this, but people would need to go in with their eyes wide open.
Fair response. Disclosure on my side is I work for a bank down here in Australia and all the middlemen are under fire. We're funding fintechs with platforms that replace every brokering channel. Now. Today.

Everything you detailed above is better done by an algorithm. It's all just a set of rules connected to a database. It offers the consumer a better experience and it can scale.

Looked at our lending stats and the matrix lending we do outperforms the humans by 5x. Plus the computer doesn't sell you income insurance because they get a trailer.
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Old 05-25-2017, 08:56 AM   #489
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Almost one-third of millennials found themselves without enough money in their bank account to cover expenses at least once over the past 12 months, compared with 28 per cent of Gen Xers and 17 per cent of boomers. Millennials were also more likely to say they’d run into trouble making a mortgage payment if the prime earner in their household became unemployed.
Is it really surprising that the older people they get the higher their income and the more savings they have? Historically, people have been poor in their 20s, getting their feet under them in their 30s, in their prime earning years in their 40s, and enjoying the fruits of their labour in their 50s.
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Old 05-25-2017, 09:00 AM   #490
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So basically baby boomers have removed the social mobility in our society that their own parents created for them.

For a bunch of former hippies, they sure are pieces of crap.
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Old 05-25-2017, 09:11 AM   #491
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Fair response. Disclosure on my side is I work for a bank down here in Australia and all the middlemen are under fire. We're funding fintechs with platforms that replace every brokering channel. Now. Today.

Everything you detailed above is better done by an algorithm. It's all just a set of rules connected to a database. It offers the consumer a better experience and it can scale.

Looked at our lending stats and the matrix lending we do outperforms the humans by 5x. Plus the computer doesn't sell you income insurance because they get a trailer.
Yeah and there is no question that fintech is huge here in North America as well. Aside from the obvious, there is a lot of money in finance and silicon valley wants a piece of that. I'm not naive enough to think that my role is somehow exempt from that! The climate in Australia is quite different though as advisors in general saw massive legislative reforms, which is only sort of happening here.

Time will tell whether we go as far as they have though. I do think it's moving in that direction, and for advisors who plan to be around in say a decade you had better have some impressive specialisations or face the fact that you're simply not going to be as profitable. That is a whole other discussion though because there are a lot of unintended consequences.
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Old 05-25-2017, 12:17 PM   #492
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Speaking of housing, property, and how the different generations fit in to the bigger picture, what do people think is going to happen in 15 years?

I mean, right now, boomers are, at the youngest, 57 years old. The oldest of the bunch is 74 years old.

In 15 years, they will end up being 72-89 years old. Will they still be as involved in the owning of property, the upkeep of homes, and all it entails? Would it perhaps not behoove the Millennials to wait for 10-15 years? I mean, what would the market look like then?

What will the market then look like for all of us?
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Old 05-25-2017, 12:35 PM   #493
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I wonder how they determine the not enough money to cover expenses in their bank account?

My family had 3 times last year where our mid month fund withdrawal form our kids day care failed to go through, mostly as biweekly pay cheques started coming just after the 15th instead of before. Granted my wife is as bad with money as someone can be and would make big payments on her credit card not even knowing this was going to be withdrawn along with our Inusrance, and property taxes.

Thankfully I did manage to get us out of that cycle. But once you start to fall behind, it's pretty tough to climb out. Every time our account overdrew that was $60. Her credit card was another $80 a month in Interest, and I had a LOC that was also costing me about $40. Just getting out of that stupid waste of money right there started to add up in just 4 months.
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Old 05-25-2017, 12:50 PM   #494
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Nm

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Old 05-25-2017, 04:10 PM   #495
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I mentioned before, trips is the big one. Of the links above, the non-students are spending $2-3000 per year on trips.

Our parents never took trips every year, and I don't think they took many trips before they were married.
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Old 05-25-2017, 04:23 PM   #496
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nm

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Old 05-25-2017, 04:27 PM   #497
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I mentioned before, trips is the big one. Of the links above, the non-students are spending $2-3000 per year on trips.

Our parents never took trips every year, and I don't think they took many trips before they were married.
Garbage.

Buying a hippy van and traveling across north America or backpacking abroad are not new things for young people. Almost a half a million people attended Woodstock alone ffs.

The mode of travel may be different, as airplane flights are likely cheaper. However, $400 in 1970 is equivalent to $2500 now. Are you saying young people back then didn't spend a few hundred a year on travel or equivalent expenses?

Once again, the only thing that's changed is that young people work longer hours, need more education, spend more money on education, and have less buying power as they spend more money on basic needs.... And real estate is ridiculously expensive.
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Old 05-25-2017, 04:35 PM   #498
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done

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Old 05-25-2017, 04:39 PM   #499
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This is a simple discussion.

Look at average wages, look at average cost of living, look at inflation growth, look at average personally held debt.

compare numbers.

Anything else is just a distraction. Price of homes has vastly outpaced the growth in incomes. The cost of living has outpaced purchasing power. Real wage growth has increased less than inflation.
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Old 05-25-2017, 05:02 PM   #500
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This is a simple discussion.

Look at average wages, look at average cost of living, look at inflation growth, look at average personally held debt.

compare numbers.

Anything else is just a distraction. Price of homes has vastly outpaced the growth in incomes. The cost of living has outpaced purchasing power. Real wage growth has increased less than inflation.
And to add to this. It's gotten to the point where young people are now far more financially dependent on their parents. So you'd better have rich parents if you want to succeed. We've destroyed social mobility.

Back to the issue of young people spending money on fancy organic foods, at least that is an expense that is likely to improve one's health and decrease future medical expenses, as opposed to the previous generation that smoked a pack of cigarettes every day.
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