Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2017 - Round 18

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

AOM didn't even earn a NHL contract. He's signed to an AHL one as he's regressed since his knee injury.

https://flamesnation.ca/2017/03/19/p...llas-mattsson/

That says more about the Flames being reluctant to hand out ELCs to every prospect than it does about his upside. This is the first I've heard of regression. Don't find Flamesnation articles to be worth reading so I haven't checked out your link

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

AOM didn't even earn a NHL contract. He's signed to an AHL one as he's regressed since his knee injury.

https://flamesnation.ca/2017/03/19/p...llas-mattsson/

That article uses NHLe point progression, out of all stats, to indicate that a defensive defenceman prospect has regressed.... this should tell you exactly how much thought the author put into it, which was very little.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

That article uses NHLe point progression, out of all stats, to indicate that a defensive defenceman prospect has regressed.... this should tell you exactly how much thought the author put into it, which was very little.

Okay, I'll give you that because of the league he plays in, but he still hasn't earned a NHL contract, so it drops his rating to below many others who have a contract.

[Jiri Hrdina]

There was some thought that it was an Ahl deal to allow him to more easily return home due to family reasons

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Okay, I'll give you that because of the league he plays in, but he still hasn't earned a NHL contract, so it drops his rating to below many others who have a contract.

Neither of those points should have real weight in terms of prospect evaluation for AOM. He's a stay-at-home type of defenceman, so no matter what league he's in his point totals are going to be low. Look at Regehr's entire career, not even in junior was he scoring well for a defenceman and yet he was a top pairing guy for us. Look at Hjalmarsson's stats throughout the SEL/AHL and even while he was established on the Blackhawks. These type of defencemen are not putting up points with the type of style they play.

It also seems that the Flames organization is much more leery of handing out a contract spot period, so that shouldn't be a knock on any prospect not getting an NHL ELC. The writing was on the wall anyway when a busload of people didn't get qualified last offseason.

[Gaudreau is a Ninja]

AOM is my pick this round

[bigrangy]

Karnaukhov until he's picked.

Big talented centres are always great to have. I expect a big year from him in Russia.

[Caged Great]

Ruzicka, Tuulola, and Lindstrom are the three forwards with higher end potential left. The rest of everyone else are depth guys.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Neither of those points should have real weight in terms of prospect evaluation for AOM. He's a stay-at-home type of defenceman, so no matter what league he's in his point totals are going to be low. Look at Regehr's entire career, not even in junior was he scoring well for a defenceman and yet he was a top pairing guy for us. Look at Hjalmarsson's stats throughout the SEL/AHL and even while he was established on the Blackhawks. These type of defencemen are not putting up points with the type of style they play.

It also seems that the Flames organization is much more leery of handing out a contract spot period, so that shouldn't be a knock on any prospect not getting an NHL ELC. The writing was on the wall anyway when a busload of people didn't get qualified last offseason.

A fourth year in junior and Regehr may have been scoring 74 points like Gauthier did.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=19321

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Okay, I'll give you that because of the league he plays in, but he still hasn't earned a NHL contract, so it drops his rating to below many others who have a contract.

That doesn't really make any sense to me

[FBI]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Karnaukhov until he's picked.

Big talented centres are always great to have. I expect a big year from him in Russia.

I think you're going to be on a one man island here until round 35 or so.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by FBI

I think you're going to be on a one man island here until round 35 or so.

Yes. The fact that Hunter Smith has double the amount of votes as Karnaukhov is very telling.

Both he and Rafikov are never going to play in North America.

[bigrangy]

Karnaukhov has already played in North America

I'm not super optimistic about either of them coming to NA in the future but Karnaukhov has more hockey talent/likeliness to reach upside than any of the remaining picks at least IMO.

And you joke about Smith but he should be coming off the board very soon, at least in my opinion. He's got as strong a case as anyone after Lomberg and Wotherspoon are gone. Smith will absolutely play some NHL games. I don't know if he'll even be replacement level, but he will have a career.

[kehatch]

Point production in junior does matter. Even for a defensive D man. Regehr did produce in junior. So did pretty much everyone who ever made the NHL. Because they are better then the people they are playing with.

Sent from my SM-G955W using Tapatalk

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

That doesn't really make any sense to me

He's on a show me contract to prove he isn't another Keegan Kanzig and I hope he does but it knocks his ranking down.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

He's on a show me contract to prove he isn't another Keegan Kanzig and I hope he does but it knocks his ranking down.

We're at #18. Pretty much everyone left is in the show me stage. He's already been knocked down arguably

[Mister Yamoto]

I'm gonna be wrong about Zach Fischer. You guys can be wrong about someone else. The guy wins his fights and scores goals. That counts for something.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Karnaukhov has already played in North America

I'm not super optimistic about either of them coming to NA in the future but Karnaukhov has more hockey talent/likeliness to reach upside than any of the remaining picks at least IMO.

And you joke about Smith but he should be coming off the board very soon, at least in my opinion. He's got as strong a case as anyone after Lomberg and Wotherspoon are gone. Smith will absolutely play some NHL games. I don't know if he'll even be replacement level, but he will have a career.

I adamantly disagree. He can't do anything at the NHL level except be big.

As for Karnaukhov, I'd say that Ruzicka and Lindstrom are both as talented as him, if not more. Tuulola would be in the same breath as him. Fact remains, he decided to defect back to Russia and he doesn't seem to be someone that the Flames talk about very much anymore. Perhaps he'll come back when he's 27 and has had lots of great years in the KHL, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Since he's essentially no longer under Flames control as the KHL has no transfer agreement with the NHL, he's no longer a prospect. He's a free agent that the Flames retain the rights on.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I adamantly disagree. He can't do anything at the NHL level except be big.

As for Karnaukhov, I'd say that Ruzicka and Lindstrom are both as talented as him, if not more. Tuulola would be in the same breath as him. Fact remains, he decided to defect back to Russia and he doesn't seem to be someone that the Flames talk about very much anymore. Perhaps he'll come back when he's 27 and has had lots of great years in the KHL, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Since he's essentially no longer under Flames control as the KHL has no transfer agreement with the NHL, he's no longer a prospect. He's a free agent that the Flames retain the rights on.

Just wondering if you have seen any of these guys play? Bigrangy is a regular contributor on the Heat forum...

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I've seen enough of Smith over the years to know he sucks, and while I like Karnaukhov's game to some degree, he's still in the 2nd tier of Flames prospects for me. Fact remains that he took off for Russia and he's very unlikely to come back now.

I respect that he follows the Heat regularly, but you can still be wrong and be a regular follower of a team. Just look at some of the Flames fans around here.