Mark "Fricken" Jankowski (aka The Big Jankowski)

[SuperMatt18]

Also of note is the teams they played on, and how they ranked in their team scoring charts:

In Season One:

Jankowski: 5th
Kreider: 9th
Hayes: 14th

In Season 2:

Jankowski:3rd
Kreider: 8th
Hayes: 9th

In Season 3:

Jankowski: ?
Kreider: 1st
Hayes: 6th

When you regulate for the player and their role on the team it shows that Jankowski is trending very similar, if not ahead of the other two players. If Jankowski can get close to a PPG in his 3rd season he will be fine.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Hayes went from C to RW partway through his 2nd year. ArguablyHayes' amazing senior year was largely in part thanks to Gaudreau.

Great post thanks sureLoss, I fixed a little bit of it though..

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Also of note is the teams they played on, and how they ranked in their team scoring charts:

In Season One:

Jankowski: 5th
Kreider: 9th
Hayes: 14th

In Season 2:

Jankowski:3rd
Kreider: 8th
Hayes: 9th

In Season 3:

Jankowski: ?
Kreider: 1st
Hayes: 6th

When you regulate for the player and their role on the team it shows that Jankowski is trending very similar, if not ahead of the other two players. If Jankowski can get close to a PPG in his 3rd season he will be fine.

Someone with more time on their hands than me could compute point percentages for these and other players to see how Janko stacks up

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Someone with more time on their hands than me could compute point percentages for these and other players to see how Janko stacks up

Here you go...

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Just a graph comparing offensive output of 3 players that came from very comparable situations.

All 3 were drafted in early 20ish range from high school programs.

All 3 played in Hockey East considered to be the hardest conference in Division I hockey.

Jankowski is roughly 7 months younger than Hayes and Kreider in each year.

Jankowski went from LW to C in his 2nd year while playing on a lower offensive team.

Hayes went from C to RW partway through his 2nd year. Arguably Hayes' amazing senior year was largely in part thanks to Gaudreau.

Kreider was on the wing throughout his college career.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Here you go...

Thanks

Not what I'm looking for though. What percentage of their team's goals did they get point on? It's a way of normalizing individual stats when their teams have different scoring rates

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Thanks

Not what I'm looking for though. What percentage of their team's goals did they get point on? It's a way of normalizing individual stats when their teams have different scoring rates

Oh. Sorry. Here I thought I was hilarious

[edslunch]

It WAS funny, I'll give you that

[Street Pharmacist]

I included playoffs

Kevin Hayes :
Year 1 14 pts / 153 GF 9.2%
Year 2 28 pts / 157 GF 17.8%
Year 3 25 pts / 128 GF 19.5%
Year 4 65 pts / 164 GF 39.6%

Chris Kreider:
Year 1 23 pts / 171 GF 13.4%
Year 2 24 pts / 153 GF 15.7%
Year 3 45 pts / 157 GF 28.7%

Mark Jankowski:
Year 1 18 pts / 105 GF 17.1%
Year 2 25 pts / 115 GF 21.7%



And just for gits n shiggles,

Johnny Gaudreau:
Year 2 44 pts / 157 GF 28.0%
Year 3 51 pts / 128 GF 39.8%
Year 4 80 pts / 164 GF 48.8%


Edit: as with sureLoss, I did not account for games missed. Total points/total GF for the team

[sureLoss]

Here is a quick points percentage plot.

It will be slightly skewed because of injuries. I don't have time to go through individual game sheets to determine how many goals were scored with and without each player in the lineup so i just used the total goals scored by the team in that season.

[edslunch]

Kreider missed a bunch of games in his sophomore season so his percentage is higher - I came up with 19.1%

All in all paints Janko in a better light but in no way conclusive. Looking forward to a near-vertical line this year!

[sureLoss]

K i couldn't leave it alone.

Still didn't want to go through game sheets, however I made the assumption that the respective team's goals/game didn't change without the player (i.e. I divided the previous plot by the percentage of games the player played).

Still not perfect, but the results should give a clearer picture.

[bubbsy]

thanks for the graphs, really paint a decent picture of how jankowski is doing/developing.

for kicks, would be interesting to see gaudreau's data on year to see just how elite his college numbers truly are.

[sureLoss]

Just to be clear, as I am seeing these graphs posted on other forums, I do not think these graphs prove that Jankowski is better than Kreider or Hayes.

I just think they put Jankowski's development in context and show it is not as bad as some claim to be.

While Kreider and Hayes are not perfect comparables, I think they are probably the closest comparables to Jankowski because they were all drafted from high school programs, former 1st round picks, projected top line players, play in the same NCAA division, went into the NCAA immediately after the draft, etc.

If Jankowski doesn't follow the curve set by Kreider and Hayes in their 3rd years, does it mean anything? Probably not. Again, just puts things into context of probably the closest comparable to Jankowski.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

thanks for the graphs, really paint a decent picture of how jankowski is doing/developing.

for kicks, would be interesting to see gaudreau's data on year to see just how elite his college numbers truly are.

He's the data:


Year 2 44 pts / 157 GF 28.0%
Year 3 51 pts / 128 GF 39.8%
Year 4 80 pts / 164 GF 48.8%

[edslunch]

You should know by now that your word is gold here

Seriously though, it's more fun than anything, though it does support the 'low scoring team' explanation for his lower point totals. The interesting thing to me is seeing the accelerated scoring the other two had as juniors, again supporting the notion that this coming year will be telling, though obviously not conclusive.

[jemjey]

So we should expect 17g 37p or better rookie seasons from Janko and Hayes, no?

Isn't that what these graphs PROVE?!

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by jemjey

So we should expect 17g 37p or better rookie seasons from Janko and Hayes, no?

Isn't that what these graphs PROVE?!

Not at all. The graphs just show the scoring trends for the players relative to age and level played. Why would a graph like this one PROVE anything?

[Matty81]

I don't expect Jankowski to jump 20 points or anything, both those other two guys got to play with Johnny Gaudreau. Providence has been pretty hurting for offensive talent in comparison, Ross Mauermann is not exactly Johnny Hockey.

I'd be happy with 15 goals and 30 points. For a 19/20 year old kid, would be an excellent year in a tough NCAA conference on a defensive team.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I don't expect Jankowski to jump 20 points or anything, both those other two guys got to play with Johnny Gaudreau. Providence has been pretty hurting for offensive talent in comparison, Ross Mauermann is not exactly Johnny Hockey.

I'd be happy with 15 goals and 30 points. For a 19/20 year old kid, would be an excellent year in a tough NCAA conference on a defensive team.

I'd like to see 30-35 points, which is a similar increase to last year. I would really like to see what he could do with a winger that can score, right now he drives the play, creates chances and there is no one to finish.

Although in the end this could be a good thing because it will teach him not to just pass and to shoot when he has scoring chances. I'd hate to see him fall into that always look for a pass routine like Tanguay or we started to see from Baertschi this year.

[FBI]

Any updates on his injury? Was disappointed we didn't get to see him or gillies in action at rookie camp.