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Old 06-19-2017, 12:42 AM   #21
dino7c
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
I grant you this but submit they are statistical anomalies. Thomas especially. How is Smith trending?

More likely, Mike Smith is an old guy who is, what, 5 years from his last impact season, played for years for a coach that emphasized team D on a budget team that didn't spend on scorers, and is basically a coin toss on a team that is arguably on the uptick but really not established at being good defensively.
Enough with the defensive coach non sense...they gave up the 2nd most shots per game last season
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:26 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
I grant you this but submit they are statistical anomalies. Thomas especially. How is Smith trending?

More likely, Mike Smith is an old guy who is, what, 5 years from his last impact season, played for years for a coach that emphasized team D on a budget team that didn't spend on scorers, and is basically a coin toss on a team that is arguably on the uptick but really not established at being good defensively.
Where are people getting this downward trend from? He still played great against the Flames last year and was the Coyotes 3 star winner which is a good barometer of how well he played. He was also their all star game rep.

Just because the Coyotes were terrible doesn't mean Smith is terrible. Same thing with Ryan Miller and the Canucks. I had to watch and listen to a lot of Canuck stuff last year and Miller was amazing but you wouldn't know it from his stats. It's probably the same thing for Smith.

I think people should actually watch these goalies play instead of relying on stats. Of course a backup on a Cup contender is going to have great stats, they play for a great team and usually play against crap teams. Smith and Miller were under seige most nights and had many games where they faced over 40 shots. Just go back and look at the games the Flames played against these two goalies and you will see how good they were.

I'm not going to say that this was the right move because goalies are really unpredictable, they are like pitchers in baseball, but I can see how the Flames research and analysis led them to going with Smith.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:43 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
I grant you this but submit they are statistical anomalies. Thomas especially. How is Smith trending?

More likely, Mike Smith is an old guy who is, what, 5 years from his last impact season, played for years for a coach that emphasized team D on a budget team that didn't spend on scorers, and is basically a coin toss on a team that is arguably on the uptick but really not established at being good defensively.
Mike Smith is probably the only member of the Coyotes who hasn't been coasting off that conference final run for the last half decade.
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Old 06-19-2017, 02:22 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by dino7c View Post
Enough with the defensive coach non sense...they gave up the 2nd most shots per game last season
Remarks:
Don't neglect what Tippett really is. Can you in good faith argue that he is, based on his body of work, not a defence first coach? Pfft. Some years with no budget you have less horses but that is the MO of Phx / Ari . And goalie being the star on a crappy offensive team is almost a marketing move as much as it is a genuine selection of stars.

Quality does not equal quantity, and one year does not represent several.

(And shot location is most definitely not a proxy for shot quality)

Phoenix play being crappy last season does not make Mike Smith great, at best it leads to the opportunity to present excuses why he may just be awesome

The Brian Elliott 3 season sv % justification fizzled in the face of performance

Tl:dr
Mike Smith was a passable goalie on a crap team. Not a proven winner
Fingers crossed, I want to see the Flames win

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Old 06-19-2017, 02:44 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
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Don't neglect what Tippett really is. Can you in good faith argue that he is, based on his body of work, not a defence first coach? Pfft. Some years with no budget you have less horses but that is the MO of Phx / Ari . And goalie being the star on a crappy offensive team is almost a marketing move as much as it is a genuine selection of stars.

Quality does not equal quantity, and one year does not represent several.

(And shot location is most definitely not a proxy for shot quality)

Phoenix play being crappy last season does not make Mike Smith great, at best it leads to the opportunity to present excuses why he may just be awesome

The Brian Elliott 3 season sv % justification fizzled in the face of performance
Do you have any numbers to back up your claims? Because it sounds like you've been discounting facts and making presumptions without any numerical evidence.
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Old 06-19-2017, 02:54 AM   #26
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Do you have any numbers to back up your claims? Because it sounds like you've been discounting facts and making presumptions without any numerical evidence.
Not sure what numbers you suggest I miss

Feel free to show me where Smith ranks league wide
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:37 AM   #27
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Not sure what numbers you suggest I miss

Feel free to show me where Smith ranks league wide
He usually ranks around 25th in the league for goalies BUT he is annually the goalie that faces the most shot on average a game at 33.
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:51 AM   #28
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I grant you this but submit they are statistical anomalies. Thomas especially. How is Smith trending?
He had one spectacular season his first year as a starter with the Coyotes. He had one off year in 14-15. Otherwise, he's been right around his career save percentage of .913 the other 4 seasons with them.

11-12 .930
12-13 .910
13-14 .915
14-15 .904
15-16 .916
16-17 .914

That's while starting 310 games over that stretch, or almost 52 per season on average.

If you aggregate those 6 seasons, his save percentage over that period is .916. Over that same time period, among goalies that averaged 20 or more starts per season (so 120 or more starts), that ranks him 22nd in Sv% out of 43 total goalies. Comparing that rank to other recent Flames goalies:

Elliott - 6th (.921, 209 starts)
Smith - 22nd (.916, 310)
Johnson - 28th (.915, 120)
Hiller - 37th (.909, 215)

Smith's 310 starts over that period rank him 6th among 43 goalies. Only Lundqvist, Rinne, Fleury, Lehtonen, and Quick have started more games since 11-12.

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Old 06-19-2017, 04:57 AM   #29
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Flames don't need Smith to be that elite starter. The Flames made the playoffs due to a hot hand from a backup (Johnson) that saved the season, and then another hot hand in Elliott (who played terribly before and after) to get into the playoffs. The Flames essentially experienced below average goaltending (which was a big increase from the season before) for the vast majority of the season.

They need Smith to be average. Consistently average. For all the hand-wringing that is going on about his age, he is only a stop-gap. Treliving made that abundantly clear (without stating it outright) in his interview.

We need this stop-gap to provide the Flames with fairly close to average level goaltending consistently all season. I believe every statistical measure shows Smith being better than average, and doing so on a pretty crappy team behind a pretty crappy defence. I am ok with this. I am more ok with this than spending more for Fleury (who is inconsistent and a stop-gap), or rolling the dice with at least a 4 year deal on Mason (who to me seems a lot like Elliott in his 'elite level' play, confounded by terrible play for stretches).

2 year stop gap at league average is all I'm hoping for, and I think that is what the Flames will get out of this. That in itself is an upgrade, and I do think it is enough. I have enough faith that one of Parsons, Gillies, Rittich steps up into the NHL during that time, or maybe even Schneider and MacDonald if they just turn their games around. That is 3 solid as they come bullets and 2 extra BB gun shots that might just hit someone in the eye if they are really, really lucky. That's good for me.

Plus, you really never know who else becomes available during the next 2 seasons. If there is a deal to be made, Treliving isn't gun-shy to do it.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:08 AM   #30
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Quality does not equal quantity, and one year does not represent several.

(And shot location is most definitely not a proxy for shot quality)
First off, one year? Since 2012/13 (5 seasons!) the Coyotes have given up the 3rd most shots per game of any team in the league at 32.8. For reference, the Flames in that same time period gave up an average of 28.9 shots per game (8th best) and this is through a REBUILD.

Defensive team my ass.

Secondly, I just love when people say "shot location is NOT a reflection of shot quality" in a weak attempt to dismiss high danger, low danger and medium danger save percentages.

When talking about large sample sizes, which is what we are talking about, shot location MOST DEFINITELY DOES reflect shot quality, and that is indisputable.

Evidenced by the difference in league wide HD, MD and LD save %

2016/17 League Average HD sv% -> 81.17%
2016/17 League Average MD sv% -> 92.50%
2016/17 League Average LD sv% -> 97.91%


2013-16 League Average HD sv% -> 80.86%
2013-16 League Average MD sv% -> 92.36%
2013-16 League Average LD sv% -> 97.88%

So if shot location doesn't reflect shot quality in large sample sizes, why do teams score consistently less frequently as the shot location gets further out from the net?

Can one shot from a low danger area be more difficult than one shot from a high danger area? Absolutely.

But in large sample sizes low danger shots are much easier for goalies to save than high danger shots.
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:14 AM   #31
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BT commented that they looked at the quality of chances Smith has faced from a lot of angles - even at number of breakaways, 2 on 1s, odd man rushes, etc.
So it seems that Smith both faced a higher number and high quality of chances.
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:59 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Remarks:
Don't neglect what Tippett really is. Can you in good faith argue that he is, based on his body of work, not a defence first coach? Pfft. Some years with no budget you have less horses but that is the MO of Phx / Ari . And goalie being the star on a crappy offensive team is almost a marketing move as much as it is a genuine selection of stars.

Quality does not equal quantity, and one year does not represent several.

(And shot location is most definitely not a proxy for shot quality)

Phoenix play being crappy last season does not make Mike Smith great, at best it leads to the opportunity to present excuses why he may just be awesome

The Brian Elliott 3 season sv % justification fizzled in the face of performance

Tl:dr
Mike Smith was a passable goalie on a crap team. Not a proven winner
Fingers crossed, I want to see the Flames win
NM, Opps sorry, responding to wrong post.
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:11 AM   #33
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Not sure what numbers you suggest I miss

Feel free to show me where Smith ranks league wide
You haven't given any numbers actually.
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The Oilers won't finish 14th in the West forever.

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Old 06-19-2017, 11:18 AM   #34
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I have seen the Yotes play with my own eyes...I don't care who their coach is their team sucks balls and has for a while. They are paying multiple players to not play for them just to be cap compliant.

Does anyone really think, MAF, Bishop, Elliott, whoever would have stellar numbers had they played for the Yotes?
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Old 06-19-2017, 12:14 PM   #35
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Tippett has always had a rep as a defensive coach. However, his team was largely made up of old guys like Doan, Vrbata and Richardson and kids just out of junior who were used to the looser defence there, like Domi, Duclair, Dvorak and Chychrun. That leads to high calibre shots on goal.
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:55 PM   #36
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http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/hockey-c...ove-everybody/

Chayka on the Smith trade, Johnson, etc
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