Why is the market going crazy?

[lorenavedon]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

This is gotta be a sign things are getting a little too crazy. Forrest Lawn is becoming an attractive place to live. No offence to your mom but I'm sure she's happy to be getting outta the hood.

What's next? Airdrie is suddenly the place to be?

Attractive place to live? LOL. Nobody that bought that place will actually live there! When sales are 50/50 between people that actually need a home and "investors" which are either HAM or just regular people working oil & gas you are wannabe McTrumps, you know it's going to end bad.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by lorenavedon

Attractive place to live? LOL. Nobody that bought that place will actually live there! When sales are 50/50 between people that actually need a home and "investors" which are either HAM or just regular people working oil & gas you are wannabe McTrumps, you know it's going to end bad.

I had to look this up "HAM," which apparently stands for hot asia money. I seriously doubt that foreign investors are much of a factor in Forest Lawn RE, but that's just my opinion.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Investing in Forrest Lawn is like investing in Enron. This will not end well.

[ranchlandsselling]

Wow, HAM? Now that's being toted in Calgary? Doubt it - also doubt it's the average geologist in Calgary deciding they want to be the next trump. It might be a frothy market but it's more likely to be due to low rates, short rental supply and a low unemployment rate than HAM or wanna be Trumps.

[lorenavedon]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Wow, HAM? Now that's being toted in Calgary? Doubt it - also doubt it's the average geologist in Calgary deciding they want to be the next trump. It might be a frothy market but it's more likely to be due to low rates, short rental supply and a low unemployment rate than HAM or wanna be Trumps.

really? I don't know anybody with a decent job that doesn't have a second investment / rental property. The amount of secondary condos/houses people in Calgary own is staggering and will lead to a total ####storm if the economy turns and people start losing their jobs and have to unload their second property

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by lorenavedon

really? I don't know anybody with a decent job that doesn't have a second investment / rental property. The amount of secondary condos/houses people in Calgary own is staggering and will lead to a total ####storm if the economy turns and people start losing their jobs and have to unload their second property

Come on, that is a ridiculous exaggeration. Unless you know like two guys.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by lorenavedon

really? I don't know anybody with a decent job that doesn't have a second investment / rental property. The amount of secondary condos/houses people in Calgary own is staggering and will lead to a total ####storm if the economy turns and people start losing their jobs and have to unload their second property

Originally Posted by Sliver

Come on, that is a ridiculous exaggeration. Unless you know like two guys.

In my personal experience, I would say that close to 2 out of 3 people I know and closely associate with have at least two properties. Second properties are either vacation/cabins or rental/investment properties.

[nickerjones]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

This is gotta be a sign things are getting a little too crazy. Forrest Lawn is becoming an attractive place to live. No offence to your mom but I'm sure she's happy to be getting outta the hood.

What's next? Airdrie is suddenly the place to be?

No offense taken, she has lived there since the early 80's. BTW, the guy who bought the place was white, from Calgary, seemed to be pretty affluent. He said he was going to live full time in the house. Her mom (my grandmother-in-law) listed her house just south of 17th AVE from my mother in laws place in forest lawn. It sold in a week for 419k ( it was listed at 429). I am pretty sure she said she bought the place in 1961 for 12k. That one was a rental as the guy already had $2700 month worth of tenants lined up on closing day

As far as forest lawn, I never found it to be that bad. The location is pretty nice as far as getting to things. I mean it's close to downtown, just a quick zip up memorial. I always thought if the hipsters decided to start moving in, tearing things down, and building infill's it would be nice place due to it's proximity to places like downtown. The only bad part is it's older, a bit run down, and has a lot of renters. I would assume a lot of Calgarians would say a lot of immigrants too but I don't think that's a bad thing as I myself am an immigrant. As far as being "hood"... I guess it's relative. Where I'm from the "hood" is a place you don't want to be after the sun has went down because you're afraid you're going to be shot. I have never felt unsafe at any time in Forest Lawn.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

In my personal experience, I would say that close to 2 out of 3 people I know and closely associate with have at least two properties. Second properties are either vacation/cabins or rental/investment properties.

That's probably a trend within your circle of friends. In my group, we all drink schooners when we go out for wings on Tuesdays as though they were pints, but I don't assume 6 out of 7 guys in Calgary drink schooners instead of pints.

Just because two-thirds of your friends have two plus properties doesn't mean anything beyond two-thirds of your friends have two plus properties.

[Peanut]

I also don't think vacation property should be lumped in with "wannabe McTrumps". Most the people I know with vacation properties just use it themselves. I guess it's different if you bought a vacation property for the sole purpose of renting it out, but then it's an investment property, not a vacation property. Point being if you buy a vacation property for your personal use then presumably you can carry the costs comfortably enough. Anyways. I hear what you are saying on lots of people owning rental property and it's slightly worrisome because I'm a wannabe McTrump myself I guess. I never sold my place when I moved in with my husband.

Further to the hot market ancedotal stories - we've been looking since I made this thread. Have only been really interested in 3 places in that time and all three went to competing bids. One sold for list, one sold for $30k over list, and one $20k over list. Le sigh.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

In my personal experience, I would say that close to 2 out of 3 people I know and closely associate with have at least two properties. Second properties are either vacation/cabins or rental/investment properties.

And, how many of those originally lived in the rental/investment property? Most of the people I know with "rentals" or "investment properties" once had them as primary residences and decided to rent them out because the rental income mostly or fully covered the payments but selling and fully walking away would have netted them very little or a negative position - so they became landlords. For some of these people it could be the best savings account ever - for others a liability. But most people I know with a investment funds available aren't buying SFH's or Condo apartments with a goal of becoming a real estate mogul. If they wanted to do that they'd probably just buy an apartment building, or industrial building. Besides that they're starting companies, deciding to work for themselves or just dumping cash into the market.

Vacation properties don't count your 50/50 buyers wanting to live there and buying rental/investment properties doesn't mention vacation homes.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

And, how many of those originally lived in the rental/investment property? Most of the people I know with "rentals" or "investment properties" once had them as primary residences and decided to rent them out because the rental income mostly or fully covered the payments but selling and fully walking away would have netted them very little or a negative position - so they became landlords. For some of these people it could be the best savings account ever - for others a liability. But most people I know with a investment funds available aren't buying SFH's or Condo apartments with a goal of becoming a real estate mogul. If they wanted to do that they'd probably just buy an apartment building, or industrial building. Besides that they're starting companies, deciding to work for themselves or just dumping cash into the market.

Vacation properties don't count your 50/50 buyers wanting to live there and buying rental/investment properties doesn't mention vacation homes.

Of the folks that I was referring to most of them actually bought for the sole purpose of investing and renting it out. They were not carry over homes. But, as was mentioned above my group of friends and acquaintances probably isn`t very representative.

[WilsonFourTwo]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

And, how many of those originally lived in the rental/investment property? Most of the people I know with "rentals" or "investment properties" once had them as primary residences and decided to rent them out because the rental income mostly or fully covered the payments but selling and fully walking away would have netted them very little or a negative position - so they became landlords.

This seems about right for most cases. The other aspect is why sell a place you love if you don't need to right away? A couple I know did it because they weren't entirely sure how the 'new house' was going to work out for them once they renovated it, and renting the old place out more or less covered the costs of keeping it. Gives them a year or two to get adjusted to the new home and make a decision. Only risk factor is the captial gains....

When I bought my house last year I opted to keep my condo as a rental. Why? Because the condo is terrific and I fully intend to make it my home again in 5-10 years when I downshift and semi-retire. Love everything about the unit and the area, its where I want to be. Until then I'm an unintentional, albeit happy, landlord with a cash flow neutral property.

If I WANTED to be a landlord, I would be buying multi-unit buildings and cash flowing the living daylights out of them. IMO, anyone not pursuing that course of action is unlikely to be a true property investor....

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by nickerjones

No offense taken, she has lived there since the early 80's. BTW, the guy who bought the place was white, from Calgary, seemed to be pretty affluent. He said he was going to live full time in the house. Her mom (my grandmother-in-law) listed her house just south of 17th AVE from my mother in laws place in forest lawn. It sold in a week for 419k ( it was listed at 429). I am pretty sure she said she bought the place in 1961 for 12k. That one was a rental as the guy already had $2700 month worth of tenants lined up on closing day

As far as forest lawn, I never found it to be that bad. The location is pretty nice as far as getting to things. I mean it's close to downtown, just a quick zip up memorial. I always thought if the hipsters decided to start moving in, tearing things down, and building infill's it would be nice place due to it's proximity to places like downtown. The only bad part is it's older, a bit run down, and has a lot of renters. I would assume a lot of Calgarians would say a lot of immigrants too but I don't think that's a bad thing as I myself am an immigrant. As far as being "hood"... I guess it's relative. Where I'm from the "hood" is a place you don't want to be after the sun has went down because you're afraid you're going to be shot. I have never felt unsafe at any time in Forest Lawn.

You're absolutely correct. Calgary is a very safe and wealthy city. However, Forrest Lawn has a few bad things going against it.

First is Deerfoot trail. Deerfoot is such a physical and psychological barrier in Calgary. Anything east of Deerfoot is discounted. Even though Forrest Lawn is relatively close in distance to downtown, Deerfoot plays a big part of that disconnect.

Second is demographics. The median income of Forrest lawn is half that of the city of Calgary and about 40% of those living in Forrest Lawn don't even have a HS diploma(according to the 2006 census). In this day and age that stat is almost unbelievable, especially when we live in a very highly educated city in one of the most-if not the most- educated countries in the world.

In biggish cities like Calgary, there will always be a area for the lower class, and in Calgary this is Forrest Lawn. I can't see this changing in my lifetime.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

You're absolutely correct. Calgary is a very safe and wealthy city. However, Forrest Lawn has a few bad things going against it.

First is Deerfoot trail. Deerfoot is such a physical and psychological barrier in Calgary. Anything east of Deerfoot is discounted. Even though Forrest Lawn is relatively close in distance to downtown, Deerfoot plays a big part of that disconnect.

Second is demographics. The median income of Forrest lawn is half that of the city of Calgary and about 40% of those living in Forrest Lawn don't even have a HS diploma(according to the 2006 census). In this day and age that stat is almost unbelievable, especially when we live in a very highly educated city in one of the most-if not the most- educated countries in the world.

In biggish cities like Calgary, there will always be a area for the lower class, and in Calgary this is Forrest Lawn. I can't see this changing in my lifetime.

I think for the location reason alone it will start to change soon. You have already seen it in Mayland Heights & Radison. The infills/gut jobs have started.

IMO in the next 20 years or so. We will see an increase of visible minorities in the East north of 16th Ave. (already sitting at near 50% in many communities, but I think it will still go up). And I think you will see the consentration of "low income" white families moving south, remaining close to the industrial parks but fallowing lower property values. Sorry Riverbend/Douglas Glen, I'm talking about you.

It will happen because you can bad mouth Forest lawn all you want but people working in office towers downtown with paid for parking stalls will want a 15 minute drive and yard for their kids. And Forest Lawn will be the most affordable place to get it.

Values will go up, "those" people will stop coming in.

[Badgers Nose]

found someone to do the lino and paint, I'll just fix er up and list er.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by #-3

I think for the location reason alone it will start to change soon. You have already seen it in Mayland Heights & Radison. The infills/gut jobs have started.

IMO in the next 20 years or so. We will see an increase of visible minorities in the East north of 16th Ave. (already sitting at near 50% in many communities, but I think it will still go up). And I think you will see the consentration of "low income" white families moving south, remaining close to the industrial parks but fallowing lower property values. Sorry Riverbend/Douglas Glen, I'm talking about you.

It will happen because you can bad mouth Forest lawn all you want but people working in office towers downtown with paid for parking stalls will want a 15 minute drive and yard for their kids. And Forest Lawn will be the most affordable place to get it.

Values will go up, "those" people will stop coming in.

Values will go up as "those" people stop coming in? Yeah - not likely. Maybe in a very long time - but Boweness has been expecting that transition for the past 20 years and it's still waiting. And I love Boweness.

Just for interests sake I looked at Q1 2014 sales across Calgary as well as monthly stats (didn't realize Q2 was available) for April, May, June, July.

Q1 2014 141 communities had 8 sales or more (I deleted anything with less than 8 sales) and then sorted by Average Sale price.

Forest Lawn was 132nd of 141 with an average sale price of $327,500 and a median sale price of $329,000 across 18 sales.

Communities below were Erinwoods, Pineridge, Ogden Lynnwood Milican, Castleridge, Dover Glen, Falconridge, Abbeydale, Penbrooke and Dover

Using your referenced communities that "those people" will flock to:

Douglasglen was 95 of 132 with an average sale price of $443,460 and median of $435,000 across 18 sales.

Riverbend was 101 of 132 with an average sale price of $435,160 and median of $429,000 across 17 sales.

April 2014 removing communities with less than 8 sales (but adding Forest Lawn as they had 5 sales)

Forest Lawn was 82nd of 88 with an average sale price of $339,880 and a median sale price of $327,000 across 5 sales.

Using your referenced communities that "those people" will flock to:

Douglasglen was 56th of 88 with an average sale price of $455,285 and median of $440,000 across 18 sales.

Riverbend was 59th of 88 with an average sale price of $448,816 and median of $435,000 across 14 sales.

May 2014 removing communities with less than 8 sales

Forest Lawn was 95th of 99 with an average sale price of $314,300 and a median sale price of $313,000 across 10 sales.

Using your referenced communities that "those people" will flock to:

Riverbend was 53rd of 99 with an average sale price of $501,730 and median of $486,500 across 15 sales.

Douglasglen was 59th of 99 with an average sale price of $464,687 and median of $474,500 across 22 sales.

Underlined and bolded because it was the one time it went above $500,000 which was 60% higher than the average in Forest Lawn .

June 2014 removing communities with less than 8 sales (but adding Douglasglen who had only 7 and Forest Lawn who only had 3 sales so we could compare)

Forest Lawn was 70th of 70 (LAST PLACE) with an average sale price of $311,693 and a median sale price of $315,000 across 10 sales.

Using your referenced communities that "those people" will flock to:

Douglasglen was 58th of 70 with an average sale price of $455,285 and median of $440,000 across 7 sales.

Riverbend was 59th of 70 with an average sale price of $451,006 and median of $415,200 across 15 sales.

July 2014 removing communities with less than 8 sales (but adding Douglasglen who had only 6 and Forest Lawn who only had 3 sales so we could compare)

Forest Lawn was 71st of 71 (LAST PLACE) with an average sale price of $289,000 and a median sale price of $282,000 across 10 sales.

Using your referenced communities that "those people" will flock to:

Douglasglen was 42nd of 71 with an average sale price of $495,783 and median of $466,800 across 6 sales.

Riverbend was 55th of 71 with an average sale price of $426,433 and median of $435,000 across 9 sales.

I'm sorry, but "those people" as you so nicely called them aren't flocking to the two above mentioned neighborhoods as they are driven from Forest Lawn. If prices go up in Calgary the two communities you think are going to become slums simply aren’t. Not to mention the variable of Quarry Park…. Which, could make some people hate the area and other love the area. With that, both communities are 15 minutes from downtown and have the same benefits that you use to support Forest Lawn AND both are adjacent to Quarry Park and much closer to any quality shopping than Forest Lawn.

Yeah, bashing communities shouldn’t happen – but you’re taking it a totally backward direction supporting a community, bashing the residents, then suggesting they can no longer afford the community you’re getting defensive of and sending them somewhere that is substantially statistically better. Sounds like a resident that likes their house but hates their neighbors

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Values will go up as "those" people stop coming in? Yeah - not likely. Maybe in a very long time - but Boweness has been expecting that transition for the past 20 years and it's still waiting. And I love Boweness.

Just for interests sake I looked at Q1 2014 sales across Calgary as well as monthly stats (didn't realize Q2 was available) for April, May, June, July.


I'm sorry, but "those people" as you so nicely called them aren't flocking to the two above mentioned neighborhoods as they are driven from Forest Lawn. If prices go up in Calgary the two communities you think are going to become slums simply aren’t. Not to mention the variable of Quarry Park…. Which, could make some people hate the area and other love the area. With that, both communities are 15 minutes from downtown and have the same benefits that you use to support Forest Lawn AND both are adjacent to Quarry Park and much closer to any quality shopping than Forest Lawn.

Absolutely. Riverbend has seen a large increase in property values because of Quarry Park.

People don't want to be within a 15 min drive of downtown if their car gets broken into regularly. Plus Forrest lawn is nowhere near a train line so this also is a negative for commuters.

I'd guess the amount of people who live in Forrest lawn and commute downtown is very low compared to the NW/SW. Forrest lawn is a blue collar community with many if it's residents working in the East end industrial parks.

[#-3]

I just think if it was a completely empty piece of land the value of forest lawn would be huge. So eventually that will come around.

I personally believe 20 years is probably a realistic time frame to start seeing the turn-around, maybe it will be 50. But Good pieces of property don't stay "Slums". And slums in Calgary isn't even that bad.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by #-3

I just think if it was a completely empty piece of land the value of forest lawn would be huge. So eventually that will come around.

I personally believe 20 years is probably a realistic time frame to start seeing the turn-around, maybe it will be 50. But Good pieces of property don't stay "Slums". And slums in Calgary isn't even that bad.

If Forest Lawn as-is wasn't on that land, it would probably be developed more like Garrison Woods than what it is now.