Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Touche, typo on my part - but wouldn't a broker have very similar interests as a bank regarding painting a rosy real estate picture?

The quote just caught me by surprise coming from that type of source. However, maybe that industry isn't as bias as I had suspected.

Ya their interests are definitely aligned, but I think brokers' glasses are slightly less rose coloured.

[Travis Munroe]

I think we will see a very high number of expired / terminated listings that do not re list.
It makes no sense for someone to sell at a loss unless they are in a must sell position.
If oil does not stabilize and start climbing towards the $60-$70 range within 3-4 months, we will see many of these for sale listings turn to for rent. I believe this will help keep housing prices fairly stable and in that 3-5% decrease while the rental market will also cool off with the increase of inventory.

Over the last 10 days I have submit a handful of offers on properties with numerous different clientele. Over 50% of these ended up being a multiple offer situation including 1 listing which I felt was already very over priced. While the majority of listings are sitting with little to no activity, there is still more movement than what the media is giving to the public.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I think we will see a very high number of expired / terminated listings that do not re list.
It makes no sense for someone to sell at a loss unless they are in a must sell position.
If oil does not stabilize and start climbing towards the $60-$70 range within 3-4 months, we will see many of these for sale listings turn to for rent. I believe this will help keep housing prices fairly stable and in that 3-5% decrease while the rental market will also cool off with the increase of inventory.

Over the last 10 days I have submit a handful of offers on properties with numerous different clientele. Over 50% of these ended up being a multiple offer situation including 1 listing which I felt was already very over priced. While the majority of listings are sitting with little to no activity, there is still more movement than what the media is giving to the public.

So they will rent from themselves?

[1stLand]

It doesn't matter what the Media Says and how the market is performing. I will just list with a Realtor who has the best marketing program and I will be able to sell my home for above market value. I know a Realtor on this site that spends upwards of $2,000 on marketing on some of his listings.
Just Kidding.

[polak]

BTW, I don't think it's "who blinks first". Buyers have nothing to lose. The moment the market signals a rebound they can buy.

[MillerTime GFG]

Again, it's totally situational and depends on how motivated the seller is. Some are coming down fairly significantly from their list price, and some are barely budging.

[polak]

Yup, I intend on going to all listings that fit my needs and offering the price I think is fair value, completely independent of asking price.

Basically, unless your place has some amazing finishes, you're not getting more than 230K from me for a 2 bed / 2 bath suburban condo. Not a chance.

I'm sure I'll get laughed out the door from some places but I'm not too worried I'll be able to find something nice for that price.

[rd_aaron]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I think we will see a very high number of expired / terminated listings that do not re list.
It makes no sense for someone to sell at a loss unless they are in a must sell position.
If oil does not stabilize and start climbing towards the $60-$70 range within 3-4 months, we will see many of these for sale listings turn to for rent. I believe this will help keep housing prices fairly stable and in that 3-5% decrease while the rental market will also cool off with the increase of inventory.

Over the last 10 days I have submit a handful of offers on properties with numerous different clientele. Over 50% of these ended up being a multiple offer situation including 1 listing which I felt was already very over priced. While the majority of listings are sitting with little to no activity, there is still more movement than what the media is giving to the public.

How many people would be selling at a loss though? People who bought in the last 6 months? It would mostly be people taking less profit, I assume. Didn't the market perform very well last year?

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by polak

Yup, I intend on going to all listings that fit my needs and offering the price I think is fair value, completely independent of asking price.

Basically, unless your place has some amazing finishes, you're not getting more than 230K from me for a 2 bed / 2 bath suburban condo. Not a chance.

I'm sure I'll get laughed out the door from some places but I'm not too worried I'll be able to find something nice for that price.

I get your sarcasm, but not sure if you're doing it in a jerk-ish way. Of course not to the extreme in your example, there are people going around lowballing hoping to find someone who's going to budge. I can attest to that from first-hand experience.

[polak]

I wasn't being sarcastic lol.

Obviously I wouldn't be a huge dick about it but 230 seems fair.

That's my plan. There are plenty listed for 240-250. 230 offer isn't that outrageous in this market.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Red

So they will rent from themselves?

They will purchase something else and rent out their own place.
In most/many cases, the monthly rent covers all costs.
The ability to purchase a 2nd property is much more common than you may think.

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by polak

I wasn't being sarcastic lol.

Obviously I wouldn't be a huge dick about it but 230 seems fair.

That's my plan. There are plenty listed for 240-250. 230 offer isn't that outrageous in this market.

I think it was the "completely independent of asking price" that threw it into what I thought was a sarcastic tone. Got me thinking 500k list prices and you offering 230k.

It's CP, I assume all posts are sarcastic until proven innocent.

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

They will purchase something else and rent out their own place.
In most/many cases, the monthly rent covers all costs.
The ability to purchase a 2nd property is much more common than you may think.

It may cover their actual costs, but when looking to be approved for a new mortgage like you're alluding to, they can't use all of the rent they're charging. Usually a 50-80% offset depending on the lender.

Of course if their income more than satisfies what they're looking for, the above is a moot point. But that offset can be tricky sometimes.

[lorenavedon]

not everyone that is looking to sell would be happy renting. Not everyone wants to be a landlord. Some people that lost their jobs and are over levered might have to sell to cover other debts. Renting just won't do that for them. As for people not wanting to sell for a loss, even if a lot of people sold for %20-%30 less than their asking prices, most would still be making money. A %10 drop would only take us back to last year's prices. %20 off would only take us back a couple years. Like someone already stated, people are still trying to get record prices which is complete lunacy.

The biggest factor in prices coming down will never be an increase in listings, in the end the entire deal hinges on employment. As long as people have jobs they can make the numbers work. When mass layoffs hit, then the trouble starts. So far there haven't been any mass layoffs in Calgary. The employment rate in Calgary is still strong so that will take care of any doom and gloomers that think prices are coming down anytime soon.

[Calgary14]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

They will purchase something else and rent out their own place.
In most/many cases, the monthly rent covers all costs.
The ability to purchase a 2nd property is much more common than you may think.

Just curious, how common is it for people to own more than 2 properties? I believe you need 20% down if it's not a principal residence

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

Just curious, how common is it for people to own more than 2 properties? I believe you need 20% down if it's not a principal residence

I find it quite common however many people are not aware as to how easy it is to own 2 places. If you are smart with your money and didnt go buy something for 100% of your approval amount, chances are you are living fairly comfortably.
As for the 20%, if mortgage A is through company A and you want a second property... you only need 20% equity in your current property to move and buy something new with 5% down.
If mortgage A is with company A and your willing to go to another lender, you can have less than 20% equity in your primary residence and buy something new with 5% down.
Both those scenarios involve making the new home your primary residence as you will need 20% regardless if you plan on living in the initial home and buying a second place for investment purposes.

Originally Posted by MillerTime GFG

It may cover their actual costs, but when looking to be approved for a new mortgage like you're alluding to, they can't use all of the rent they're charging. Usually a 50-80% offset depending on the lender.

Of course if their income more than satisfies what they're looking for, the above is a moot point. But that offset can be tricky sometimes.

I know you would already know this but for CP, there is at least 1 A lender who will take 100% of your rental income.
To further comment on the initial post by Calgary14 - moving from owning 2 to 3 places is where it gets very challenging.

[MillerTime GFG]

There are a couple lenders that use 'rental worksheets' that are phenomenal and can get to that 100% range. They're like magic, but not all clients can qualify with said lenders for other reasons.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

They will purchase something else and rent out their own place.
In most/many cases, the monthly rent covers all costs.
The ability to purchase a 2nd property is much more common than you may think.

Rent to whom? Rental vacancies are already on the way up. Only gonna get worse.

And a person that lost their job, can't afford to sell their house for a loss (means little equity to lose from) is going to rent the place out (little equity=negative cash-flow) and then is going to get a mortgage from a bank to get a second place?With no job?

And some of those private insurers are scrutinizing buyers more too so getting anywhere without a job would be a short trip.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Red

Rent to whom? Rental vacancies are already on the way up. Only gonna get worse.

And a person that lost their job, can't afford to sell their house for a loss (means little equity to lose from) is going to rent the place out (little equity=negative cash-flow) and then is going to get a mortgage from a bank to get a second place?With no job?

And some of those private insurers are scrutinizing buyers more too so getting anywhere without a job would be a short trip.

I was not referring to the very very very small portion of the population who has lost their job and are in a position where the need to sell their home.
I have yet to run into a client who is in a difficult time and my phone is constantly ringing from clientele looking to capitalize on this market.

Vacancy are still unbelievably low and rental rates are high.

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

They will purchase something else and rent out their own place.
In most/many cases, the monthly rent covers all costs.
The ability to purchase a 2nd property is much more common than you may think.

Is this your plan with your place? You will rent it out and buy a bigger place?
This is true though, a lot of Sellers that are realistic (their home hasn't sold and they aren't willing to reduce their price) are renting out their homes. Not their preference but unfortunately it beats selling for far less than what they expected / hoped.