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Old 03-08-2009, 11:45 AM   #1
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Default Stocks - The Best Buys

While using the theme of the 'Ongoing financial turmoil..." thread, I thought it might be a good idea for us to put our heads together and narrow down what the really good buys are right now. I have been talking to my stock broker every day and we have been watching several for a long time now. Some I have already bought and sold.

IF the following get a little lower I will be buying. In fact, I might be buying a couple of these this week.

Question: What are you guys watching?

Commodities

POT.to
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=POT.TO&t=3m

AGU.to
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AGU.TO&t=6m

Oil

BNK.to
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=BNK.TO&t=6m

SU.to
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SU.TO&t=6m

Banks

IBN
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=IBN&t=6m
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Old 03-08-2009, 11:56 AM   #2
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The potash companies are interesting but still too expensive in my books. If AGU gets back to the low 30's I'd buy some shares.

Bankers Petroleum is too small cap for my liking. I'd be worried about these small caps going bankrupt before going back up in value.

Suncor is on my radar and if it gets another few days of drops I think I'll buy some more shares.

ICICI Bank I'd stay away from. I wouldn't touch a bank anywhere outside of Canada. A bank from India, no thanks!
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:01 PM   #3
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Why did I think we were talking about Best Buy the store?

Thanks for the thread, I was looking into buying some stock and invest in my future.
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:02 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by fotze View Post
Wholly crap, I didn't realize pennwest was only $7

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&l...p=&a=&c=&s=pwe

Am I reading that right, that their market cap is only $2.94B? I must be missing something because they are a much bigger company than that.
Those are their shares on the NYSE. On the TSX they are in the $9 range. The company has huge amounts of debt and I would strongly avoid.

Another red flag is a nearly 30% distribution.
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:06 PM   #5
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Sunlife (SLF) is down to a paltry $15 - keeping my eye on that one.
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:19 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pepper24 View Post
The potash companies are interesting but still too expensive in my books. If AGU gets back to the low 30's I'd buy some shares.

Bankers Petroleum is too small cap for my liking. I'd be worried about these small caps going bankrupt before going back up in value.

Suncor is on my radar and if it gets another few days of drops I think I'll buy some more shares.

ICICI Bank I'd stay away from. I wouldn't touch a bank anywhere outside of Canada. A bank from India, no thanks!
IBN is not just a bank. It is also the 2nd largest insurance company in the world with a like a billion customers!

You won't like hearing that I bought some BAC at $8 thinking it was a steal. It is down to $3.14 right now. Long term I think $8 is a good buy, it should rebound eventually.
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:43 PM   #7
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Last time we had this question in the fall people were suggesting GE, Citi and Bank of America were all awesome buys and sure bets because they were down 50% (or whatever).

Now they are all down what, another 70%?






(And I am not trying to say there are not good buys out there, but it is a tricky time and seemingly healthy companies have all sorts of reasons to suddenly not be in the current environment.)



Claeren.
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:54 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Claeren View Post
Last time we had this question in the fall people were suggesting GE, Citi and Bank of America were all awesome buys and sure bets because they were down 50% (or whatever).

Now they are all down what, another 70%?






(And I am not trying to say there are not good buys out there, but it is a tricky time and seemingly healthy companies have all sorts of reasons to suddenly not be in the current environment.)



Claeren.
Yes we all know it is a tricky time to buy. But this thread was to discuss some potentially great stocks buys, not really to further discuss "the ongoing financial turmoil..." which is already being discussed in another thread.

Do you have any stocks that you are watching? Would you be willing to share what they might be? The more suggestions we get the better.
Thanks.
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Old 03-08-2009, 02:02 PM   #9
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IBN is not just a bank. It is also the 2nd largest insurance company in the world with a like a billion customers!

You won't like hearing that I bought some BAC at $8 thinking it was a steal. It is down to $3.14 right now. Long term I think $8 is a good buy, it should rebound eventually.
As a bank and insurance company that's a double whammy IMO. Personally I would avoid any bank or insurance company until we see what happens with this economy. The only banks I'd even ponder are CDN banks, one of the big 5.

BAC could easily go bankrupt instead of rebounding. It's anyone's guess. If you can stomach your current lose you might as well hang tight. To break even though you either need this stock to rebound or have another stock make big gains. Tough to do in this market.
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Old 03-08-2009, 02:24 PM   #10
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Quote:
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As a bank and insurance company that's a double whammy IMO. Personally I would avoid any bank or insurance company until we see what happens with this economy. The only banks I'd even ponder are CDN banks, one of the big 5.

BAC could easily go bankrupt instead of rebounding. It's anyone's guess. If you can stomach your current lose you might as well hang tight. To break even though you either need this stock to rebound or have another stock make big gains. Tough to do in this market.
Are you currently watching or buying any stocks?
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:03 PM   #11
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[quote=pepper24;1705966]The potash companies are interesting but still too expensive in my books. If AGU gets back to the low 30's I'd buy some shares.

AGU has a PE ratio of 3.77....I picked this one up in December for $31 and won't sell it til it doubles or I get stopped out but I am confident that it will double sometime in the next year. Look at the droughts in Australia, China, South America etc....there will be a lot of nitrogen based fertilizers used this year!...On February 25, 2009 AGU bid $3.6 Billion to take out CF industries. How many other companies are able to make aggressive take outs in this environment. The food/fertilizer area is a growth area for the next 5-20 years. One stock that you really should be able to buy and hold. I like AGU more than POT as AGU is under the instituional radar for the most part and besides that it is based right here in Calgary. A great company that offers great value even at $40.
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:10 PM   #12
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[quote=fotze;1705967]Wholly crap, I didn't realize pennwest was only $7

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&l...p=&a=&c=&s=pwe



There is a reason for that price. They cut their payout from 34cents to 21 cents and all conventional oil and gas trusts are dependent on oil prices. They had a recent issue that didn't sell out and they are going to need to raise capital. Struggling to replace production and paying out distributions beyond what it should. A good company but it is definitely not best of breed.
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Old 03-08-2009, 03:22 PM   #13
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I bought into the Gold ETF XGD in December and it has been a good investment thus far...Last year I was in GLD but I sold off all my american currency positions and did ok with the currency gains/capital appreciatoin on this one last year. As good as gold!
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Old 03-08-2009, 04:09 PM   #14
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[quote=macker;1706823]
Quote:
Originally Posted by pepper24 View Post
The potash companies are interesting but still too expensive in my books. If AGU gets back to the low 30's I'd buy some shares.

AGU has a PE ratio of 3.77....I picked this one up in December for $31 and won't sell it til it doubles or I get stopped out but I am confident that it will double sometime in the next year. Look at the droughts in Australia, China, South America etc....there will be a lot of nitrogen based fertilizers used this year!...On February 25, 2009 AGU bid $3.6 Billion to take out CF industries. How many other companies are able to make aggressive take outs in this environment. The food/fertilizer area is a growth area for the next 5-20 years. One stock that you really should be able to buy and hold. I like AGU more than POT as AGU is under the instituional radar for the most part and besides that it is based right here in Calgary. A great company that offers great value even at $40.
What I meant by expensive I am thinking that potash prices will go down not referring to AGU's cheap P/E ratio, so I think that I could pick up AGU at a better price. I wish I was in at $31 like you but would get back in at around $35 or less.
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Old 03-08-2009, 04:32 PM   #15
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Are you currently watching or buying any stocks?
Oil and Gas: HSE, SU, ECA
- buying shares over time with the forecast that oil will go up
- good value, good dividends

Utilities: TA, PIF.UN, FTS
- buying shares over time
- stable cash flow, solid dividends

Telecomm: T, BCE
- stable cash flow, solid dividends
- good market share for mobile phones to offset eroding home phone services
- holding off as I think both will go lower

Banks: RY, BNS, BMO
- good value, stable dividends as a bank hasn't cut a dividend in 15+ years
- writeoffs not as bad as originally thought
- worry is that if US banks continue to drop these stocks will follow
- bought some shares in all 3 companies when all were in the $25 range; plan to buy more

Real Estate: REI.UN
- all the shopping centers I go to seem to be run by this company
- risk is if retail continues to tank

Financials/Insurance: MFT, SLF
- watching these companies but won't put in any money until I get a handle on their debt and writedowns; too risky at the moment

I am staying away from most US and UK stocks until I get a handle on the financial crisis. Those 2 countries are ground zero for the mess.

Also, won't put more than 20% of my money in one sector unless I see a short term opportunity. I'll try to capitalize then rebalance.
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Old 03-08-2009, 07:41 PM   #16
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there are not good buys out there, but it is a tricky time and seemingly healthy companies have all sorts of reasons to suddenly not be in the current environment.)
It definately seems really tough to try and time the market. For the most part, I agree with you and Cowboy's thesis about money that was leveraged via real estate traders being spent and lost, but the market doesn't always follow what the economics say. Obviously, stocks are more of a psychology game then losely following the economics. I guess the hope is, a good business will, over time, go up in value.

Here's what I have and my thesis:

Lululemon - I mostly bought in when the stock crashed when their 4Q earnings came out strong, but they forcast a weak 2009 year. In the long run, this fad clothing seems to keep selling despite the recession (what recession?), and stores are expanding across the USA. To compensate for expected sales drops, they've shored up inventory all the while showing much, much stronger store-to-store earnings then any of their competitors.

BoA - they're getting killed by Merill Lynch, but if you look at BoA aside from Merill, they arn't in as deep as they are with ML. As I mentioned in the other thread, one of my friends is a lawyer involved in the acquisition and (not that this is inside info, its published, but in >100 page jargon only lawyers seem to understand) and the long and short of it is, BoA can sell whatever bad debt they want to the feds, essentially keeping all the good debt from ML and shouldering off the bad debt to the feds. I assume this is the arrangement the feds made for BoA to acquire ML in a shot gun wedding.

JPM - the strongest bank out there, huge asset base acquired by WaMu, bought BS for a bargain, and Dimond is looking like a genius. JPM doesn't require any government bailout.

LVS and MGM - this was my gamble, down 98% for LVS and 90% for MGM, so I thought "what the hell" and in Las Vegas fashion, gambled it. They are both down about 60% since I bought them, both in solvency issues and MGM might be running into default on their CityCenter project. Hopefully they don't, but hey this was a gamble where I fully realized the consequences.

Wells Fargo - they also don't need government aid (I think? I'm starting to lose track who is who) and historically WFC is well managed. I'm taking a small slaughtering here, but I'm in this for a long term so I'm not too worried.

BNI - US railroads, my thesis here is they transport goods from the Mexico boarder through the US in that whole rural industrial part of the mid-west and into Ontario. With a tree hugger Obama, and growth in Mexico, my thesis here is BNI is a good buy. Expensive, but you get what you pay for - strong earnings and near zero debt.

American Express - I dunno why I bought this... dammit.

Eaton - my largest holding, they've fallen probably 40% since I bought them but I'm not too worried by Eaton. Eaton runs a really tight ship with inventory, their middle managers keep a close eye on production (extremely high operating EPS), and they essentially have a strangle hold on their products with economies of scale. 97% of their retained earnings have made profits, and a conservative management projects 15% incone growth and 10% sales growth to 2010. Eaton also has expanded outside of the USA quite nicely with overseas acquisitions. (i.e. China)

Nvidia - aggressive, cutting edge, been slaughtered by the recession but holding a large portion of the market. I dunno if my own bias is coming in here, but the design engineers they have there are among the best I've met of any company. I dunno if that means anything though, I guess thats just calms my sense of confidence in Nvidia. Hopefully it doesn't mean I'm delusional here...

Western Digital - the stronger of its market, really tightened its ship for this recession (while Seagate didn't), strong earnings but these HD makers seem to be running each other to the floor trying to jam more and more storage into their HD.

Intel - worlds biggest chip maker, solid company, and I've seen their 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year plans and from various presentations and conversations with VPs and CTO's. One of my supervisors is also a former VP of Intel too - not that I've got any secrets from him or anything, but I've certainly learned alot about how Intel runs its business and projects its future and its strategy for releasing products. They must spend quite a bit on marketing research, just as they spend a ton on R&D.

Berkshire Hathaway - I think everyone here knows what Berkshire is about

Cisco - huge huge huge company, with strong operations in Asia as well.
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Old 03-08-2009, 08:33 PM   #17
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I got lucky with LVS...I bought it at around $6 and sold it for a small profit before it tanked again.

I think I will buy some agu tomorrow. Seems pretty solid from what I am hearing. I also want to buy su.to again. I have a great feeling about that one.
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Old 03-09-2009, 06:05 PM   #18
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Today I bought 50 shares of AAPL. I like apple and right now its close to the 52 week low.

Thoughts?
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Old 03-09-2009, 06:34 PM   #19
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Today I bought 50 shares of AAPL. I like apple and right now its close to the 52 week low.

Thoughts?
Apple always scares the hell out of me, just because their successes and failures is based solely on the iPhone and iPod and all those other iThings, and its so easy for a Blackberry or any other portable music device. Apple seems to come and go with Steve Jobs' health, and he apperently has Friesen-itus. I avoid some otherwise successful ETFs like QQQQ just because they have major holdings in Apple (and Microsoft).
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Old 03-09-2009, 06:39 PM   #20
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In my job I deal with a lot of banks, and I tend to ask them what is a good buy when ever i get the chance. I keep hearing AMEX as a soild buy right now. Plus my boss is all over it right now. I am not an experienced investor by any stretch, it just something I have hearda few times now from dis connected sources.
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