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Old 02-06-2017, 09:54 PM   #41
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I would only assess the situation after the other teams have made up their games in hand over the Flames by the end of next week...
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Old 02-06-2017, 10:08 PM   #42
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Sure, people call them 4 pointers but it's just a phrase. There aren't 4 points to actually be had.

There are 4 games. The best scenario for one team is 8 points with no points to the other team (you don't actually lose 8 points).

A-duh.
Yeah the best scenario is you are plus 8 points. The worst is that you are minus 8 points, a 16 point variance and thus the math behind 4 point games. It's not just a phrase.
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Old 02-07-2017, 02:56 AM   #43
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If the Flames find a way tomorrow, somehow, some way... Then they will have done admirably going into the break.

Then we'll see where they stand after. If they finish off on a good note I'll wager they're only 2 points back when they resume action, with even GP.

On a side note I think it's worth remembering that Nashville could always hit a rut. They aren't that far ahead.
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Old 02-07-2017, 12:53 PM   #44
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I still can't believe how well Budaj has played for them this year. When Quick went down in the first game I didn't think he would be able to carry the load like he has.
Even Ben Scrivens had great numbers with that team playing Sutter hockey in front him.
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Old 02-07-2017, 08:51 PM   #45
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Flames are now 5 points clear of the Jets and 7 points clear of the Stars and Canucks.

Nashville - 53 GP 60 Pts (Central Div. #3)

St. Louis - 54 GP 59 Pts
Calgary - 56 GP 59 Pts

Los Angeles - 54 GP 58 Pts
Winnipeg - 56 GP 54 Pts
Vancouver - 53 GP 52 Pts
Dallas - 54 GP 52 Pts

Only the Kings can pass the Flames during their 5-day break. They play the Panthers on Thursday in Florida.
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Old 02-07-2017, 08:56 PM   #46
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I would only assess the situation after the other teams have made up their games in hand over the Flames by the end of next week...
Now that we are about to hit our BYE week, figured I'd do a bit of a summary on the teams we're fighting with during this week.


The Kings actually start their BYE week only two days after ours starts, so they only get to make up 1 game in hand on Thursday, vs Florida. Florida's on a roll, the Kings are the opposite, so hopefully that trend continues. With Nashville and STL both winning tonight, this is the only game this week that may kick us out of a playoff spot.



The Blues get to make up both games in hand on the Flames during our BYE week, against Toronto and Montreal. Both games could be a toss up. Never know which team is gonna show up. They're already sitting in a spot ahead of ours though, so not worried about usurped. St Louis won't be on their bye week until after the Predators' ends - should be some interesting competition for 3rd in the Central over this month.



The Predators also get to make up 2 games in hand, vs Florida and NYR. They and the Blues are both ahead of the Flames, so there's no immediate danger of being bumped out of a spot by either one of them until after the break. Their bye week starts immediately after ours ends, so it's an excellent opportunity to try and pass them.
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Old 02-07-2017, 10:12 PM   #47
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If St. Louis keeps up there post-Hitchcock play our best may be to dethrown the Kings.

3 home games against them in essentially one month. Buckle up everyone! Those games will have C of Red playoff atmosphere!

Tue, Feb 28 Los Angeles Kings at Calgary
Sun, Mar 19 Los Angeles Kings at Calgary
Wed, Mar 29 Los Angeles Kings at Calgary

And then the crazy 3 game road trip to California to end regular season which includes:

Tues April 6 Calgary at Los Angeles Kings
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Old 02-07-2017, 10:18 PM   #48
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St. Louis has won 2 games for christ sake, people are talking like they are on some kinda epic run
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Old 02-07-2017, 11:48 PM   #49
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I'm still hoping for an epic Oiler collapse so the Flames get 3rd in the Pacific.
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Old 02-08-2017, 12:05 AM   #50
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St. Louis has won 2 games for christ sake, people are talking like they are on some kinda epic run
They've won 2 out of 2 post-Hitchcock. Prorate that over the rest of the season and it appears they won't lose another game.
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Old 02-08-2017, 12:47 AM   #51
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I'm still hoping for an epic Oiler collapse so the Flames get 3rd in the Pacific.
Who even knows. They're swimming in new, unfamiliar waters at this point, and there are inexperienced players leading the way. The thing with that is, they don't have a track record of having done this well for this long into a season.

Things could fall off the rails just as easily as they could push for the division. And I don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen.

I think McDavid will keep them from going too far astray, unfortunately. But if the Talbot dam breaks, or something happens to him, I don't think even the golden boy can save them.

I'm going to assume it's coming down to LA vs CGY for the WC for now.
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Old 02-08-2017, 12:49 AM   #52
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They've won 2 out of 2 post-Hitchcock. Prorate that over the rest of the season and it appears they won't lose another game.
You would think it's emotional jump/response from the longtime coach firing. At some point that wears off.
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Old 02-08-2017, 01:03 AM   #53
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Even Ben Scrivens had great numbers with that team playing Sutter hockey in front him.
Budaj, Scrivens, Jones, Enroth and Bernier.

LA makes any goalie look really great. Goalies always seem to find contracts after leaving LA, with wildly varying amounts of success.

Solid team defence can go a long way in covering up a weak goalie, and in front of a great goalie wins you championships.
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Old 02-08-2017, 02:08 AM   #54
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Canucks will be the the tank

Their Feb and March schedule is a monster. They finish bottom 5.
Bottom 3 IMO. Tampa Bay and Buffalo already passed them, and Dallas will as well.

30. Colorado
29. Arizona
28. Vancouver
.
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Old 02-08-2017, 04:33 AM   #55
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Yeah the best scenario is you are plus 8 points. The worst is that you are minus 8 points, a 16 point variance and thus the math behind 4 point games. It's not just a phrase.
Reverse the head-to-head record of the Flames and Oilers (like we have seen in past years) and they exactly switch place/points in the standings, as of today.
A 14 point swing.
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Old 02-11-2017, 09:54 PM   #56
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The title of the thread should now be changed to Flames vs Predators and Kings.
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Old 02-12-2017, 06:42 AM   #57
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Yeah, just like when this thread was started it seems like there are sill about 8 teams competing for 4 spots. And that's charitably still including the Jets.
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Old 02-12-2017, 08:15 AM   #58
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The Kings and Preds are cashing in their games in hand but coming up kind of flat.

Roughly a quarter of the season left to play, definitely going to be a fight to the finish!
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:18 AM   #59
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Looks like the coaching change was the spark that St.Louis needed. Nashville has been a bit sluggish of late. Mind you that's the story of their season.

Really starting to look like the Flames will need the Oilers to keep up their post all star play if they want to avoid being the 9th place finish
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:44 AM   #60
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I presume the administrator can change the thread title. I do not know how to do that. St. Louis certainly has made a statement with 4 straight wins since I created this thread.

New revised thread title: Nashville and LA head to head games loom large in 3 horse playoff race

Source: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

Despite the 5 day break we have improved our playoff chances percentage slightly. 45.7%

Flames still projecting for 87 points with a 12-10-4 finish.

St. Louis now projecting 94 points
LA projecting 92 points
Nashville projecting 90 points

Those 4 LA games and 2 road games with Nashville looming large.

The rest of the pack has playoff odds of less than 10%. Dallas is at 5.1% for example.

Dallas 80 points; Vancouver 80 points; Winnipeg 79 points projected.

Will take a big winning streak for any of these other teams to climb back.
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