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Old 03-03-2015, 12:46 PM   #21
rd_aaron
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5474 active listings at the end of February compared to 2641 at the end of February last year. 1217 sales compared to 1850 last year. 4.5 months of inventory if that's how they calculate it (5474/1217=4.5).

http://www.creb.com/
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Old 03-03-2015, 03:24 PM   #22
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active listings are 5500. That's not really that much in retrospect. They climbed fast from about 2500 but now it's slowed down a lot and the sales are taking care of some slack.
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Old 03-03-2015, 07:48 PM   #23
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active listings are 5500. That's not really that much in retrospect. They climbed fast from about 2500 but now it's slowed down a lot and the sales are taking care of some slack.

But you're comparing end of February numbers to end of April numbers. I believe historically there is a rush of new listings spring time, so April May June roughly... which means the active listings number should go significantly higher soon...

No worries though. News headlines such as "US running out of room to store oil; price collapse next?" will surely pick those sales numbers right back up
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Old 03-03-2015, 08:14 PM   #24
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active listings are 5500. That's not really that much in retrospect. They climbed fast from about 2500 but now it's slowed down a lot and the sales are taking care of some slack.
Spoiler!
I would like to echo this statement by JRW:

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But you're comparing end of February numbers to end of April numbers.
Based on your graph, 5,500 is close to average for April, would that not mean that for February listings are way up, or am I getting it wrong?
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Old 03-03-2015, 08:22 PM   #25
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oops yeah that was april. Here's march


So we're still lower than 08/09/10/11. Don't see the issue. Plus I have a feeling a lot of people front ran this spring market because of the oil prices so most people that would have listed in april probably listed in feb or march just to give themselves time. I'm willing to be april new listings won't be high at all. There's a few panicked birds out there and once people realize that the sky isn't falling and not everyone is panicking, they'll go back to buying and listings will drop again. The only thing that will be a negative impact will be net migration out of Calgary or a huge influx of new inventory online from new developments. Both are not happening so nothing to worry about. People move here, people need a place to stay, new inventory is slow to come online = hot market. Wouldn't surprise me to see another net price increase this year going into the second half of the year. As people have already stated, even with all these new listings, prices are not really coming down.

Really, the only people that think we're in trouble or that prices are going to crash are those that are looking to buy. Funny how that works isn't it?
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Old 03-03-2015, 09:35 PM   #26
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oops yeah that was april. Here's march

Big picture and text
Anyway you will do this for February? Reason I ask, I went to that site your graph links from, and February 2014 had 2000 odd postings....

wondering if there is a big difference February vs March, and for 2015, we only have data for Feb.

Sorry....
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Old 03-04-2015, 07:09 AM   #27
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Bob Truman has numbers going back for years. Just make sure you add up SFH and Condos as he posts them on separate pages.

SFH

Condos
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Old 03-04-2015, 09:09 AM   #28
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Bob Truman has numbers going back for years. Just make sure you add up SFH and Condos as he posts them on separate pages.

SFH

Condos
Regarding single family homes there doesn't appear to be a flood of properties hitting the market despite all the doom and gloom. Inventory is up and sales are down though but it doesn't seem like home owners are feeling the pressure yet to dispose of their assets.
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Old 03-04-2015, 09:12 AM   #29
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the number of listings doesn't seem high to me at all given the population of our city and the number of people that move here every year. The only downside is the buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out. But in the end, that's what they are, on the sideline. There's still TONS of buyers out there just waiting, when they finally decide it's safe again, watch out! too the moon
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Old 03-04-2015, 09:24 AM   #30
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the number of listings doesn't seem high to me at all given the population of our city and the number of people that move here every year. The only downside is the buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out. But in the end, that's what they are, on the sideline. There's still TONS of buyers out there just waiting, when they finally decide it's safe again, watch out! too the moon
They won't move here till we recover. It could be a long while before we do.

And that ton of buyers will disappear when the bad news continues. Everyone and their dog already owns a house here, who's left to sell to, speculators? They are already sweating, every 4th house on mls is vacant.
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Old 03-04-2015, 10:13 AM   #31
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They won't move here till we recover. It could be a long while before we do.

And that ton of buyers will disappear when the bad news continues. Everyone and their dog already owns a house here, who's left to sell to, speculators? They are already sweating, every 4th house on mls is vacant.
rental market is still tight. If they can't sell they'll rent
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Old 03-04-2015, 10:23 AM   #32
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rental market is still tight. If they can't sell they'll rent
You are just moving goal posts. That would change in a hurry if 1500 homes hit the rental market within a month or two. It's a delicate balance.

We have a lot of empty homes during a time in which we will likely see people leave the province. At the same time we have a serious debt problem. 70% of people own homes and the province is about to go into recession because of low oil prices. Oil prices that are unlikely to go up for another year or more and will result in highest unemployment seen here in decades.
Add more taxes because the province is broke and there is not much positive there.

I sound negative, I know, but there is nothing there to suggest that good times are ahead. Finding a positive in February RE numbers is like winning the special Olympics. Yes, better that January, but terrible overall and January was catastrophic.
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Old 03-04-2015, 10:53 AM   #33
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You are just moving goal posts. That would change in a hurry if 1500 homes hit the rental market within a month or two. It's a delicate balance.

We have a lot of empty homes during a time in which we will likely see people leave the province. At the same time we have a serious debt problem. 70% of people own homes and the province is about to go into recession because of low oil prices. Oil prices that are unlikely to go up for another year or more and will result in highest unemployment seen here in decades.
Add more taxes because the province is broke and there is not much positive there.

I sound negative, I know, but there is nothing there to suggest that good times are ahead. Finding a positive in February RE numbers is like winning the special Olympics. Yes, better that January, but terrible overall and January was catastrophic.
Calgary hasn't had a bad housing market since the early 90s. Difference between now and then is that people actually want to live here. There's not going to be a huge outflow of people from this city like there was in the 80s or 90s. People that cant sell or rent will just delist. They will rent, maybe at just a lower price. Employment in Calgary is still the strongest in the country, wages are still high and most families have dual incomes, severance packages, EI, RRSPs they can tap into etc. It's not all good news. If the situation remains this way for the next 12-24 months then we'll start seeing blood, but this stuff takes time. A few months of low oil prices that we've had so far isn't enough.
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Old 03-04-2015, 11:23 AM   #34
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Would there be validity in predicting the condo market getting hurt first? The owners of those are young, single people or lower income families. People who most likely will have the hardest time staying afloat during a recession.
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Old 03-04-2015, 11:26 AM   #35
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Would there be validity in predicting the condo market getting hurt first? The owners of those are young, single people or lower income families. People who most likely will have the hardest time staying afloat during a recession.
yes, lots of junk condos for sale now. Take your pick. Wood frame, ground level / below grade, roach infested, falling apart and nothing but renters so if you buy to live you'd be the only owner there. Lots of those on the market which you would have to pay me to live in. The half way decent stuff that someone could actually call home is still rather rare and prices have not come down on that stuff
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Old 03-04-2015, 11:36 AM   #36
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I'd prefer the groundfloor

Screw taking an elevator when you're doing your groceries.

But I'm more excited for the new developments that are "quick possesions" dropping. There seems to be a lot.
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Old 03-04-2015, 11:55 AM   #37
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Would there be validity in predicting the condo market getting hurt first? The owners of those are young, single people or lower income families. People who most likely will have the hardest time staying afloat during a recession.
Condo market likely has more speculators and investors than the single family home market so yes I would expect more volatility and downward pressure in that market.

For example, I own a condo as a rental property. If I came upon hard times it would be hitting the market ASAP in an attempt for me to get a few bucks out of it.

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Old 03-04-2015, 03:29 PM   #38
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There's a few panicked birds out there and once people realize that the sky isn't falling and not everyone is panicking, they'll go back to buying and listings will drop again. The only thing that will be a negative impact will be net migration out of Calgary or a huge influx of new inventory online from new developments. Both are not happening so nothing to worry about. People move here, people need a place to stay, new inventory is slow to come online = hot market. Wouldn't surprise me to see another net price increase this year going into the second half of the year. As people have already stated, even with all these new listings, prices are not really coming down.

Really, the only people that think we're in trouble or that prices are going to crash are those that are looking to buy. Funny how that works isn't it?
I don't know much about the real estate market but I do know about the energy market, and you are significantly underestimating the pain that's going to come. We have not seen the worst of it yet, by any means. It seems that you're significantly underestimating how bad 2015 is going to be in the energy patch. But again, not sure how closely correlated the real estate market is....but my assumption is highly correlated.
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Old 03-04-2015, 04:01 PM   #39
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Here is how I see everyone who is heavily invested in Calgary Real Estate right now:

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Old 03-04-2015, 08:06 PM   #40
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I don't know much about the real estate market but I do know about the energy market, and you are significantly underestimating the pain that's going to come. We have not seen the worst of it yet, by any means. It seems that you're significantly underestimating how bad 2015 is going to be in the energy patch. But again, not sure how closely correlated the real estate market is....but my assumption is highly correlated.
Thanks for saying that. I thought I was alone here.

There is a lot of belief that this "oil thing" will pass in a few weeks and no damage will be done. Just like the 08 crash that saw us drop house values by almost 20% that we just recovered last summer. That blip took 5 years to recover from. And that really was just a blip that was quickly fixed by government programs etc.

How do we fix these oil prices? How long before they bounce back to above $80? How long after will the Suncors start hiring back? How long after that will these people actually qualify for a mortgage again?

We could easily be in 2017-2018 by then. What mortgage rates will we have in 2018? Will we keep these emergency rates forever?
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